WEEKLY ISSUE: Is Inflation Rearing Its Ugly Head or Not?

WEEKLY ISSUE: Is Inflation Rearing Its Ugly Head or Not?

Earlier this morning we received the January Consumer Price Index (CPI), one of the closely watched measures of that now dirty word – inflation. As a quick reminder, the market swings over the last two weeks were ignited by the headline wage data in the January Employment Report, as well as other signs, such as rising freight costs. This topic of resetting inflation expectations and what it may mean for the Fed and interest rates has been a topic of conversation amongst all investors this week.

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Inflation Rising While Wages Are Falling

Inflation Rising While Wages Are Falling

Inflation rising while hourly earnings have fallen in 5 of the past 6 months. The Fed will find it is under further pressure to hike and/or taper, which applies the brakes to any economic acceleration from tax cuts and more government spending.

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Consumer Sentiment Closer to Economic Reality than Blankfein?

Consumer Sentiment Closer to Economic Reality than Blankfein?

The CEO and Chairman of Goldman Sachs (GS), Lloyd Blankfein, is arguably one hell of a sharp fellow, which leads us to believe there are reasons behind this that go beyond a straightforward assessment of the economy. Perhaps consumers see something different than what we hear in the mainstream financial media. The University of Michigan’s […]

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Inflation waning while bonds dispute moves in stocks

Inflation waning while bonds dispute moves in stocks

Wednesday the Federal Reserve, as expected, raised rates, but even more importantly they release an outline of their plans to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet, which you can read here. We must also note that raising rates in a period of falling bond yields and where the 3-month change in core CPI is collapsing is […]

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I’m all about that base when it comes to inflation

I’m all about that base when it comes to inflation

Last week on our Cocktail Investing podcast, Chris and I spoke about how I’m not so much on board with the rising inflation camp because of the base effect, (Ok, so not quite bass, but close) which has become the phrase of the week in some circles. So what am I looking at that all those who […]

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Inflation is a tricky game

Inflation is a tricky game

On February 19th, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recently reported that inflation, as measured by CPI, remains low in the United States at a non-seasonally adjusted 12 month rate of 2.6%.  On February 12th, 2010 Olivier Blanchard, the IMF’s chief economist, called for central banks to raise their inflation targets, perhaps to 4% from the current standard around 2%.  I […]

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