Consumer Confidence & LEI’s Flash Warning

Consumer Confidence & LEI’s Flash Warning

Consumer Confidence for September declined a bit more than expected, falling to 119.8 from 120.4, versus expectations for a decline to 120. While that doesn’t sound all that meaningful as it is still well above the long-term average of 93.9, we see something occurring beneath the headlines that warrants further attention and is particularly concerning […]

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Aging America Faces A Changing Economy

Aging America Faces A Changing Economy

This morning an article in Investor’s Business Daily focused on one of our investing themes, the Aging of the Population and its impact on economic growth and certain sectors of the economy. Combining the headwind of a growing portion of the population moving into the sunset years with massive levels of student debt, the housing sector looks […]

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Falling Dollar as Trump Trade Tumbles into Investor “Meh”

Falling Dollar as Trump Trade Tumbles into Investor “Meh”

The U.S. dollar got hit hard again today as the Trump Trade continues to reverse and investor sentiment becomes more neutral – a big “Meh.” The U.S. dollar is continuing its steep decline today as the AMEX U.S. Dollar Index makes new lows for 2017 and is nearing the lowest point over the past year, […]

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Consumer Sentiment Closer to Economic Reality than Blankfein?

Consumer Sentiment Closer to Economic Reality than Blankfein?

The CEO and Chairman of Goldman Sachs (GS), Lloyd Blankfein, is arguably one hell of a sharp fellow, which leads us to believe there are reasons behind this that go beyond a straightforward assessment of the economy. Perhaps consumers see something different than what we hear in the mainstream financial media. The University of Michigan’s […]

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Economic Data Continues to Paint Peaking Picture

Economic Data Continues to Paint Peaking Picture

This view never gets old.While this was a shortened week with the Memorial Day holiday, it was certainly packed with economic data. Yours truly fell a bit behind coupled with the short week and another one of my trips from Southern California back to my other home base in Italy, so this is a longer […]

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Q1 GDP Flops as Expected – now what?

Q1 GDP Flops as Expected – now what?

While the mainstream financial media is claiming first quarter results can be dismissed due to seasonal effects and sentiment remains robust, the hard data paints a very different picture with just some concentrated areas of strength.

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First disappointing May auto sales, now Jamie Dimon sounds the alarm on auto loans 

First disappointing May auto sales, now Jamie Dimon sounds the alarm on auto loans 

While some see a booming auto market, there are reasons to be concerned as subprime loan volumes mount. Yes, those two dirty words are once again back in vogue, kicking up memories of the housing crisis and giving rise to thought the automotive market could be over inflated at best and at worst preparing for […]

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US Economy Still Wobbly

US Economy Still Wobbly

The US economy is still pretty weak, reminding me of how I feel towards the end of my weekly “long run,” with occasionally short bursts of energy that quickly peter out into awkward limping along – getting older is not for whiners. Housing  Earlier this month new single family home sales missed expectations, coming in […]

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With Stuart Varney on the Housing Market

With Stuart Varney on the Housing Market

I always seek to look below the headlines, assessing the underlying data in a more rigorous manner than you often see in the popular media and with a longer term perspective. Earlier this week I spoke with Stuart Varney on the Housing Market.  The topic warrants a thorough discussion as it is such an impactful part of the […]

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Signs That Housing is Cooling

Signs That Housing is Cooling

First the good news, data through November 2013, released January 28th by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed that the 10-City and 20-City Composites increased 13.8% and 13.7% year-over-year. Dallas posted its highest annual return of 9.9% since its inception in 2000. Chicago […]

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