Over the last several years, we’ve seen an explosion in the number of connected devices people use. While the digital hub remains the smartphone, the growing number of tablets, e-readers, wearables, smart speakers and digital assistants, and various Connected Home applications have led to a surge in data traffic. With the deployment of 5G wireless technology beginning next year and going mainstream in 2020 alongside gigabit internet, we will see yet another explosion in data consumption as the Internet of Things (IoT), Machine to Machine (M2M) and other applications go from beta testing to commercial deployments.
As far as how much data will be created, Cisco Systems says more traffic will be created in 2022 than in the first 32 years since the internet started. That’s a powerful tailwind for our Digital Infrastructure investing theme that is being led by our Digital Lifestyle and Disruptive Innovators investing themes.
Cisco foresees a massive buildup of IP traffic – 4.8 zettabytes per year by 2022, which is over three times the 2017 rate – lead by the increased use of IoT device traffic, video, and sheer number of new users coming onboard.
The company also says there will be 4.8 billion internet users by 2022, up from 3.4 billion in 2017. Those predictions are from Cisco’s Visual Networking Index (VNI), its annual look at the state of the internet culled from actual network traffic reports and independent analyst forecasts.
Cisco says that since 1984, over 4.7 zettabytes of IP traffic have flowed across networks, but that’s just a hint of what’s coming. By 2022, more IP traffic will cross global networks than in all prior “internet years” combined up to the end of 2016. In other words, more traffic will be created in 2022 than in the first 32 years since the internet started, Cisco says. (Remember, too, that an exabyte is 1 billion gigabytes and a zettabyte is a thousand exabytes.)
One of the more telling facts of the new VNI is the explosion of machine-to-machine (M2M) and Internet of Things (IoT) traffic. For example M2M modules account for 3.1 percent of IP traffic in 2017, but will be 6.4 percent of IP traffic by 2022, said Thomas Barnett, director of service provider thought leadership at Cisco. By 2022, M2M connections will be 51 percent of the total devices and connections on the internet.
Source: Cisco predicts nearly 5 zettabytes of IP traffic per year by 2022 | Network World
In Japan, the number of elderly people aged 65 or older accounts for roughly 27% of the country’s 127.1 million population and by 2050 it’s expected to reach 40%. This data from World Population Review suggests Japan is the oldest country in terms of aged population and will remain so. For us here at Tematica, it means watching the rollout and adoption of disruptive technologies that will help stem some of the pain points from an Aging Population. Examples include autonomous cars, robotics, artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things as well as worker re-education. How these are embraced, or not, could be signals for adoption in the US and EU in the coming years as those populations age as well.
Japan’s aging population will require more investment in technology such as artificial intelligence and robots to make up for a decline in the labor force for economic growth, according to a government report released Friday.
The report warned that the country is also experiencing the worst labor shortage in a quarter century, and some industries such as transportation services and construction may already be seeing earnings suffer as a result.
“Amid an aging population, (Japan) needs to drastically strengthen the supply side of the economy in order to deal with the labor shortage and realize sustainable growth,” it said.
“It is crucial that we invest in human resource development and implement features of the fourth Industrial Revolution such as AI, IoT (internet of things), and robots.”
The report, which Toshimitsu Motegi, minister of economic and fiscal policy, submitted to the Cabinet on Friday, paints a future where traffic accidents decline thanks to self-driving cars, automated translation removes language barriers, and people can receive medical care remotely.
Japan is already a leader in industrial robotics, the report said, but falling behind elsewhere. Only around 20 percent of Japanese companies currently make use of IoT compared with more than 40 percent in the United States, and the use of AI is likewise still largely limited to the financial sector and some manufacturers, it said.
The country will also need to make better use of its shrinking population by training more tech-savvy workers, the report said, pointing out such workers make up a much smaller portion of the workforce than in other advanced economies including Britain and France.
Source: Japan economy needs AI, robots to offset aging population: white paper
Yesterday was a big day, and while you may be thinking about the headlines surrounding the revealed GOP tax plan I’m talking about the very upbeat 2017 Analyst Day held by Disruptive Technology company Applied Materials (AMAT). I expected the company to deliver a bullish take on the health of its end markets, but candidly it was even stronger than expected as the company offered not one, not two, but three-year guidance. That’s right it offered its take on 2020 with earnings of $5.08 per share and announced a new $3 billion share repurchase program.
As we are fond of saying here at Tematica, context is key and that 2020 EPS of $5.08 compares to consensus EPS of $3.20 this year and $3.60 next year. Continuing the context, adding the new $3 billion buyback program to the mix brings the total outstanding buyback to roughly $4 billion. At current share price levels, ls the company could buy up to 81.6 million shares, roughly 7.5% of the total outstanding share count. As one might suspect, the underlying strength of this outlook lies in robust chip demand not only due to smartphones but also ramping Internet of Things applications, big data and artificial intelligence (A.I.) that are part of our Connected Society and Disruptive Technology investing themes.
Inside its multi-year forecast, Applied is calling for a compound annual growth rate of 23% for its Display business. In our view confirms the growing adoption of organic light emitting diode displays (OLEDs) and reinforces our bullish stance on Universal Display (OLED) shares. When we first introduced Universal Display shares, we compared it to the transition to light emitting diodes that took several years and also started in mobile phones but expanded into other applications as industry manufacturing capacity rose and prices declined. We continue to see the same evolution happening with OLEDs, and that should drive demand for Universal’s chemicals as well as expand its high-margin intellectual property business.
In sum, what was expected to be a positive development for both Applied Materials and Universal Display was even stronger than expected. On the back of this more than favorable outlook, we are boosting our price target on AMAT shares to $60 from $55. For now, our price target on OLED shares remains $175.
- On the back of this more than favorable outlook, we are boosting our price target on Applied Materials (AMAT) shares to $60 from $55.
- Our price target on Universal Display (OLED) shares was recently raised to $175 from $135, and we remain quite comfortable with that revision.