Turning Heads I Win, Tails You Lose Inside Out

Turning Heads I Win, Tails You Lose Inside Out

For much of the current expansion, cycle investors have been forced taught to believe in a Heads-I-Win-Tales-You-Lose investing environment in which good economic news was good for equities and bad economic news was also good for equities. Good news obviously indicates a positive environment, but bad news meant further central bank intervention, which would inevitably raise asset prices.

Those who didn’t buy-the-dip were severely punished. Many fund managers who dared to take fundamentals into consideration and were wary, or put on portfolio protection, saw their clients take their money and go elsewhere. An entire generation of market participants learned that it’s easy to make money, just buy the dip. That mode just may be changing as the past two weeks the major indices have taken some solid hits. Keep in mind that while the headlines keep talking up the equity markets, the total return in the S&P 500 has been less than 5% while the long bond has returned over 18%. Austria’s century bond has nearly doubled in price since it was first offered less than two years ago!

Earnings Season Summary

So far, we’ve heard from just under 2,000 companies with the unofficial close to earnings season coming next week as Wal Mart (WMT) reports on the 15th. The EPS beat rate has fallen precipitously over the past week down to 57.2%, which if it holds, will be the lowest beat rate since the March quarter of 2014. Conversely, the top line beat rate has risen over the past week to 57.4% which is slightly better than last quarter, but if it holds will be (excepting last quarter) the weakest in the past 10 quarters. The difference between the percent of companies raising guidance versus percentage lowering is down to -1.8% and has now been negative for the past four quarters and is below the long-term average.

With 456 of the 505 S&P 500 components having reported, the blended EPS growth estimate is now -0.72% year-over-year, with six of the eleven sectors experiencing declining EPS. This follows a -0.21% decline in EPS in Q1, giving us (if this holds) an earnings recession. The last time we experienced such a streak was the second quarter of 2016.

The Fed Disappoints

Last week Jerome Powell and the rest of his gang over at the Federal Reserve cut interest rates despite an economy (1) the President is calling the best ever, (2) an unemployment rate near the lowest level since the 1960s, at a (3) time when financial conditions are the loosest we’ve seen in over 16 years and (4) for the first time since the 1930s, the Fed stopped a tightening cycle at 2.5%. We have (5) never seen the Fed cut when conditions were this loose. They were looking to get some inflation going, Lord knows the growing piles of debt everywhere would love that, but instead, the dollar strengthened, and the yield curve flattened. Oops. That is not what the Fed wanted to see.

The President was not pleased. “What the Market wanted to hear from Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve was that this was the beginning of a lengthy and aggressive rate-cutting cycle which would keep pace with China, The European Union and other countries around the world,” he said in a tweet. “As usual, Powell let us down.”

The dollar’s jump higher post-announcement means that the Fed in effect tightened policy by 20 basis points. Oops2. The takeaway here is that the market was not impressed. It expected more, it priced in more and it wants more. Now the question is, will the Fed give in and give the market what it wants? Keep in mind that both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are turning decisively more dovish, which effectively strengthens the dollar even further.

Looking at past Fed commentary, the track record isn’t exactly inspirational for getting the all-important timing right.

But, we think the odds favor a continuation of positive growth, and we still do not yet see enough evidence to persuade us that we have entered, or are about to enter, a recession.” Alan Greenspan, July 1990

“The staff forecast prepared for this meeting suggested that, after a period of slow growth associated in part with an inventory correction, the economic expansion would gradually regain strength over the next two years and move toward a rate near the staff’s current estimate of the growth of the economy’s potential output.” FOMC Minutes March 20, 2001

“At this juncture, however, the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems to likely be contained.” Ben Bernanke, March 2007

“Would I say there will never, ever be another financial crisis? You know probably that would be going too far but I do think we’re much safer and I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes and I don’t believe it will be.” Janet Yellen, June 2017 (This one is going to be a real doozy)

This time around Fed Chairman Powell told us that what we are getting is a “mid-cycle policy adjustment.” Wait, what? We are now (1) in the longest expansion in history with (2) the lowest unemployment rate in over 50 years as (3) corporate leverage levels reaching record levels at a (4) time when more of it is rated at just above junk than ever before in history. This is mid-cycle? I’m pretty sure this one will be added to the above list as some serious Fed facepalming. Now I think these folks are incredibly bright, but they are just tasked with an impossible job and live in a world in which their peers believe they can and ought to finesse the economy. So far that theory hasn’t turned out all that well for anyone who doesn’t already have a good-sized pile of assets.

Domestic Economy (in summary because it is August after all)

  • We are 3-year lows for the US ISM manufacturing and services PMIs.
  • We are seeing a shrinking workweek, contracting manufacturing hours and factory overtime is at an 8-year low.
  • Just saw a contraction in the American consumer’s gasoline consumption.
  • American households just cut their credit card balances, something that happens only about 10% of the time during an expansion. Keep in mind that Q2 consumer spending was primarily debt-fueled when looking towards Q3 GDP.
  • The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Leading Economic Indicator for the US fell to a 10-year low in June, having declined for 18 consecutive months. A streak of this nature has in the past always been indicative of a recession. Interestingly that same indicator for China just hit a 9-month high.
  • The Haver Analytics adjusted New York Fed recession risk model has risen from 50% in early January to a 10-year high of 80%.

Global Economy

  • The IMF has cut world GDP forecasts for the fourth consecutive time.
  • We have 11 countries so far in 2019 experiencing at least one quarter of shrinking GDP and 17 central banks are in cutting mode with Peru the latest to cut, the Royal Bank of Australia hinting at further cuts and Mexico and Brazil likely next in line.
  • Some 30% of the world’s GDP is experiencing inverted yield curves.
  • Over half the world’s bond market is trading below the Fed funds rate.
  • Despite the sanctions on Iran and OPEC output cuts, WTI oil prices have fallen over 20% in the past year.

Europe

  • The Eurozone manufacturing PMI for July fell to 46.5, down from 47.6 in June and is now at the lowest level since the Greek debt crisis back in 2012 as employment declined to a six-year low with a decline in exports. Spain came in at 48.2, 48.5 for Italy and 49.7 for France.
  • Germany, long the economic anchor for the Eurozone and the world’s fourth-largest economy, has negative yields all the way out 30 years and about 40% of Europe’s investment-grade bonds have negative yields. The nation’s exports declined 8% year-over-year and imports fell 4.4% in June as global demand continues to weaken.
  • France had its industrial production contract -2.3% in June versus expectations for -1.6%.
  • Italy’s government is back in crisis mode as the two coalition ruling parties look to be calling it quits. Personally, I think Salvini (head of the League) has been waiting for an opportune time to dump his Five Star partners and their recent vote against European Infrastructure gave him that chance. The nation is likely heading back to the polls again at a time when Europe is facing a potential hard Brexit, so we’ve got that going for us.
  • The UK economy just saw real GDP in Q2 contract 0.2% quarter-over-quarter. Domestic demand contracted -3%. Capex fell -0.5% and has now been in contraction for five of the past six quarters. Manufacturing output also contracted -2.3% in the worst quarter since the Great Financial Crisis.

Asia

  • South Korean exports, a barometer for global trade, fell 11% year-over-year in July. The trade war between South Korea and Japan continues over Japan’s reparations for its brutal policy of “comfort women” during WWII.
  • The trade war with China has entered the second year and this past week it looks unlikely that we will get anything sorted out with China before the 2020 election. The day after Fed’s rate decision Trump announced that the US would be imposing 10% tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese goods starting September 1st. In response, China devalued its currency and word is getting out that the nation is preparing itself for a prolonged economic war with the US. The rising tension in Hong Kong are only making the battle between the US and China potentially even more volatile and risky. Investors need to keep a sharp eye on what is happening there.
  • Auto sales in China contracted 5.3% year-over-year in July for the 13th contraction in the past 14 months.
  • Tensions are rising between India and Pakistan thanks to India’s PM Modi’s decision to revoke Kashmir’s autonomy.

US Dollar

When we look at how far the dollar has strengthened is have effectively contracted the global monetary base by more than 6% year-over-year. This type of contraction preceded the five most recent recessions. While the headlines have been all about moves in the equity and bond markets, hardly anyone has been paying attention to what has been happening with the dollar, which looks to be poised the breakout to new all-time highs.

Reaching for new all-time highs?

A strengthening dollar is a phenomenally deflationary force, something that would hit the European and Japanese banks hard. So far we are seeing the dollar strengthen significantly against Asian and emerging market currencies, against the New Zealand Kiwi and the Korean Won, against the Canadian dollar and the Pound Sterling (Brexit isn’t helping) and China has lowered its peg to the dollar in retaliation against new tariffs in the ongoing trade war. There is a mountain of US Dollar-denominated debt out there, which is basically a short position on the greenback and as the world’s reserve currency and the currency that utterly dominates global trade. As the USD strengthens it creates an enormous headwind to global growth.

The deflationary power of a strengthening US dollar strength in the midst of slowing global trade and trade wars just may overpower anything central banks try. This would turn the heads-I-win-tales-you-lose buy-the-dip strategy inside out and severely rattle the markets.

The bottom line is investors need to be watching the moves in the dollar closely, look for those companies with strong balance sheets and cash flows and consider increasing liquidity. The next few months (at least) are likely to be a bumpy ride.

What We’re Watching This Week

What We’re Watching This Week

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As you probably know, this week is a shortened one following the 3-day holiday that was President’s Day. We still have a number of companies reporting their quarterly earnings this week, and that includes the Tematica Select List’s own Universal Display (OLED). The shares have had a strong run, up just over 28 percent year to date, and that likely has them priced near if not at perfection. Last week, Applied Materials (AMAT) gave a very bullish view when it comes to the ramping organic light emitting diode manufacturing capacity, as the industry prepares for Apple (AAPL) and others switching to this display technology. Consensus expectations for Universal’s December quarter results are EPS of $0.42 on $68.6 million in revenue. We expect a bullish outlook to be had when Universal reports its results this Thursday.

Alongside Universal Display, there will be a few hundred other companies reporting. Among those, we’ll be tuning into reports from Wal-Mart (WMT), Macy’s (M), JC Penney (JCP) and TJX (TJC) for confirming data on our Amazon (AMZN) thesis. Similarly, we’ll be looking at Cheesecake Factory’s (CAKE) for confirmation in the restaurant pain that is benefitting our McCormick & Co. (MKC) and United Natural (UNFI) shares.

On the economic data front, the calendar is a tad light, with the highlight likely to be the next iteration of the Fed’s FOMC minutes. Given Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s two-day testimony on Capitol Hill that we touched on above, we’re not expecting any major surprises in those minutes. Even so, we’ll be pouring over them just the same.

This morning we received the February Flash Manufacturing PMI metrics from Markit Economics and not only did Europe crush expectations hitting a six-year high in February. Across the board, from business activity to backlogs of work and business confidence, the metrics rose month over month. One item that jumped out to us was the increase in supplier delivery times, which tends to be a harbinger of inflation — something to watch in average selling price data over the next few months. Turning to Japan, the Markit flash manufacturing PMI rose to 53.5 in February, its highest level since March 2014, with sequential strength in all key categories — output, exports, employment and new orders. but Japan hit it’s highest level since March 2014.

 


Here at home, the Flash U.S. Composite Output Index hit 54.3 in February, a downtick from 55.8 in January, but still well above the 50 line that denotes a growing economy. The month over month slip was seen in manufacturing as well as the service sector. Despite that slip, new manufacturing order growth remained faster than at any other time since March 2015 and called out greater demand from energy sector clients. No surprise, given the rising domestic rig count we keep reading about each week.

Manufacturers also called out that input cost inflation was at its highest level since September 2014 and we think this is something that will have the Fed’s ears burning.

 


Currently, our view is the next likely rate hike by the Fed will be had at the May meeting, which offers plenty of time to assess pending economic stimulus, immigration and tax cut plans from President Trump. Again, we’ll be watching the data to determine to see if that timing gets pulled forward.

Stay tuned for more this week.

The New, New Normal

I’m fairly certain that when the G20 convened, many of the attendees believed that as a result of their high-minded meetings, some brilliant announcement would be given to the markets and once again the world would be deemed safe, at least for a little while.  Instead, the Cannes meeting ended with no solutions and not even a pledge to find solutions. Is this the new normal?  Papandreou is on his way out, which means the odds for passage of the latest rescue plan are improving, but at this point, that means very little for long-term Greek prospects.

Last week the ECB reversed its rate increase from earlier this year, cutting short-term lending rates by 25 basis points to 1.25%.  This should hardly come as a surprise with the Eurozone economy deteriorating at a faster pace than was expected.  Markit, a global financial information services company, reported that Eurozone GDP fell at a quarterly rate of 0.5% in October with little chance for a pick up in the near term.  Output fell and new order inflows contracted at the fastest pace since June 2009.  Eurozone PMI fell to a 28 month low of 46.5 in October, dropping from 49.1 in September.  This is the sharpest drop since November 2008.

In Germany, whose strength has been keeping Europe afloat, industrial production dropped 2.7% in September, on the heels of a 0.4% drop in August.  German factory orders dropped 4.3% in September.

One of the most concerning trends last week was the rise in Italian bond yields, with the 10 year soaring at one point to 6.64% while at the same time German bund yields dropped 2 basis points to 1.79%.  Italy is rapidly approaching the levels that pushed Greece, Ireland and Portugal into bailout mode, but this time the stakes are markedly higher.  Italy’s economy is the 8th largest in the world and its bond market is the third largest!  That’s a bigger problem that all the aforementioned nations combined and it is highly unlikely that Berlusconi’s majority government will survive.  Contagion anyone?  Over the weekend Italy rejected an offer for IMF assistance, but conceded to intensive monitoring with published quarterly fiscal results.  Talk about too little too late!

It is amazing to think that just 11 days ago, on October 27th, the market soared on promises that the EFSF would magically be expanded and levered up by some as yet still unidentified sources and all would be well in the world!  Once again, China was touted as being keen on getting involved.  Is anyone really surprised at this point that they aren’t?  Then in what can only be described as irony on a global scale, the ECB left China after being rejected and headed over to Japan, who debt to GDP is nearing a mind-boggling 228%, with hat in hand looking for support.  That’s like going to the neighborhood crack dealer in search of rehab options!

Italy is now clearly being targeted as the next bailout candidate, but there just isn’t enough firepower to handle the land of linguine.  It needs to refinance $413 billion in the coming year with market rates currently at levels that it simply cannot afford.  How much more can the ECB take on?  They’ve already bought over $100 billion of Italian bonds since August, with very little impact on yields.

Greece’s default appears more likely and more imminent that ever before and there are entirely too many under-capitalized European banks, which means, systemic risk.  This coming at a time when Italy, (remember that this is the 8th largest economy in the world) will need to refinance $413 billion!  Ah fusilli!

For anyone who thinks that Europe’s woes won’t creep across the pond, keep in mind that between 15% and 20% of S&P500 sales and exports are derived from Europe.  Europe is also China’s largest export market, so this has significant global implications outside of the danger to credit markets.

Bottom line – there is no end in sight to the Eurozone debt crisis and the U.S. will not go unscathed.  To make it even more exciting, countries responsible for half of global GDP will be holding elections in the next year, and we all know how candidates love to take advantage of a crisis and stir the pot!  Volatility and fear will be the norm.  Invest accordingly.