Further Market Correction Likely Ahead!

Further Market Correction Likely Ahead!

Yesterday I spoke with Jo Ling Kent on Fox’s Risk and Reward about what investors might expect for the rest of September and into the remainder of 2015. I suggested that after a rough September, further market correction is likely ahead.  Investing is all about probabilities, there is no sure thing, at least not legally, so […]

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Neil Cavuto: Fed Policy is the Problem

Neil Cavuto: Fed Policy is the Problem

This morning I spoke with Neil Cavuto on Fox Business about the Fed’s decision to not raise rates earlier this week; my view, Fed policy is the problem! An economy grows when good ideas are able to get funding, find talented people to work on them and are able to operate in an environment that is […]

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ZIRP and QE are killing the economy

ZIRP and QE are killing the economy

Shocker! The Fed didn’t raise rates today. I’ve been predicting the no-change decision for months! It was pretty obvious, but that’s because I can see that ZIRP and QE are killing the economy. The labor market is still relatively weak, regardless of what the seriously misleading unemployment rate statistic tries to tell us. Job openings […]

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To Raise or Not to Raise

To Raise or Not to Raise

To Raise or Note to Raise – The big question that has the attention of markets all over the world is, “Will the U.S. Federal Reserve raise rates in September?” We’ve discussed in both our June newsletter and July newsletter that we believe it is unlikely that the Fed will raise rates and continue to […]

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What the Fed Did Not Say

What the Fed Did Not Say

The annoying truth that very few economists want to admit is that the field is more art than science – much like investing. If investing were as easy as simply looking at the past and extrapolating it forward, you’d not need us. When it comes to economics, the best we can do is to develop […]

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RT Boom Bust with Erin Ade talking about the Fed, Greece and Italy

On May 28th, I appeared on RT’s Boom Bust  with Eric Ade, talking about about the Fed, Greece and Italy. For some time the Fed has been talking about raising rates, but the stream of economic data we’ve been seeing doesn’t give the FOMC, (Federal Open Markets Committee) much of an argument for raising rates.  Employment gains have […]

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Strong Economy, Really?

Strong Economy, Really?

Last week I pointed out that the data coming in wasn’t exactly painting a picture of an increasingly robust economy that would warrant the Fed tightening rates. Last Thursday we learned that initial jobless claims rose again the last week of February to 320,000, significantly above expectations of 295,000. We also learned that US Factory orders fell […]

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Just what data is the Fed seeing?

Just what data is the Fed seeing?

On Monday March 3rd, the NASDAQ closed above 5,000 for the first time since 2000, while the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also reached new record highs, which would lead one to think that things are going pretty darn well. According to Chris Verrone of Strategas Research Partners, 70% of US stocks […]

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Damn It Janet, Yellen isn't tellin'

Damn It Janet, Yellen isn't tellin'

Last week Janet (I’m not tellin’) Yellen gave her annual two-day Congressional testimony, making it clear during Tuesday’s discussion that she wants to move away from the concept that Fed guidance is a pledge and appears to still prefer more tortoise than hare policy moves, assuring the markets that while the Fed will remove the […]

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Impact of share repurchases

Impact of share repurchases

I’ve discussed before on this blog the trend for companies to issue debt then use the proceeds to buy back their own shares.  Today I’m going to look at the impact of share repurchases on equity markets.  The chart at right shows the increase in share repurchases. When the interest rate paid on the bonds […]

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