With Earnings Cracks Appearing in Market, We’ll Stay on the Sidelines

With Earnings Cracks Appearing in Market, We’ll Stay on the Sidelines

UPDATE: 11:00am Wednesday October 12, 2016

Earlier today, we sent out our weekly issue of Tematica Investing. (The original post is below).

We always love hearing from our subscribers when they tell us how much they enjoy Tematica Investing not only for its insightful investing thoughts and recommendations but because we try to keep it fun as well.

Believe it or not, we also like it when a subscriber drops us a line to point out something we missed — sometimes it’s a more than useful data point and sometimes it’s pointing out that a position was stopped out.

The latter happened today thanks to one of our loyal subscribers reminded us that AT&T (T) shares crossed through our $39 stop loss on Monday, which closed out the position with an 18 percent return. 

The bittersweet issue, however, is we were stopped out on the very day when owning the shares at the end of the day qualified us for the next $0.48 per share dividend payment on November 1.

If you didn’t set the price limit — well, then I guess it’s one of those cases like back in elementary school when you didn’t do your homework, but end up having a substitute teacher anyway. You live to see another day.

Here’s the thing…

Over the last several weeks, AT&T shares have drifted lower falling more than 10 percent in the process. We continue to like the company’s sticky and inelastic mobile business as well as its enviable dividend yield that currently sits just under 5 percent as it continues to invest in its soon to be released DirectTV Now video streaming service. In our view, that service puts AT&T in a much firmer competitive stance to battle Comcast (CMCSA) and Verizon (VZ).

Moreover, on the back of several negative earnings pre-announcements from Honeywell (HON), Dover Corp. (DOV), Illumina (ILMN) and Fortinet (FTNT) and Alcoa’s (AA) revenue shortfall and revised lower outlook, we are using the current weakness in AT&T shares to scale back into what we see as safer harbor as earnings season kicks into gear.

Our price target on the shares remains $44. We are holding off issuing a protective stop loss as we will use market volatility this earnings season to improve our cost basis should the opportunity arise.

I apologize for the confusion on this, and more importantly for the implications on returns.  But my stance is, and will always be, that we own up to our mistakes and set the record straight.

Thank you for your business, and let us know if you have any questions.

Chris Versace
Chief Investment Officer
Tematica Research, LLC

ORIGINAL POST: 10:00am Wednesday October 12, 2016

Well, how many more ways can we talk about the disparity between market valuations and earnings reality?

As is so often the case, a picture is worth 1,000 words (In our case, probably 25,000 words) and today the following image floated across our Twitter feed, which pretty much summed it all up:

beergoggles

Thanks to Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth ) for sharing it, and you can read more in her post on LinkedIn by clicking here.

 

This week’s issue of Tematica Investing includes:

  • A tough week of negative earnings pre-announcements for the stock market so far, we dig into which companies are finally coming to grips with reality and what it means for our investment themes and holdings.  Read More >>
  • With September quarter earnings just getting started, we are inclined to keep our inverse ETF positions intact to hedge against what we see as a volatile market ahead. Read More >>
  • To get ready for the earnings onslaught, we’re publishing the earnings calendar over the next few weeks for the Tematica Investing Select List to give you a heads-up as to which firms are announcing when. See Calendar >> 
  • Updates, Updates, Updates — AT&T (T), Costco Wholesale (COST), Sherwin Williams (SHW) and Universal Display (OLED)

 

You can click below to download the full report.
downalod-pdf

 

About the Author

Chris Versace, Chief Investment Officer
I'm the Chief Investment Officer of Tematica Research and editor of Tematica Investing newsletter. All of that capitalizes on my near 20 years in the investment industry, nearly all of it breaking down industries and recommending stocks. In that time, I've been ranked an All Star Analyst by Zacks Investment Research and my efforts in analyzing industries, companies and equities have been recognized by both Institutional Investor and Thomson Reuters’ StarMine Monitor. In my travels, I've covered cyclicals, tech and more, which gives me a different vantage point, one that uses not only an ecosystem or food chain perspective, but one that also examines demographics, economics, psychographics and more when formulating my investment views. The question I most often get is "Are you related to…."

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