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Context & Perspectives on the Market and Economy for February 15 2019 by Lenore Hawkins of Tematica Research

  The market is now back in a bullish mood that is driven primarily by the “not gonna happen” news flow hopes. Rate hike? Not gonna happen. Government shutdown repeat? Not gonna happen. China trade war escalation? Not gonna happen. The question is, just how long can the “not gonna happen” hopes keep pumping hot […]

With Apple and Disney both showcasing their streaming subscription services in the coming weeks, we walk through not only what’s expected but the implications as well. If you’re Netflix, you’re going to want to hear this, especially our blockbuster bundling advice for Apple.

As we approach the halfway market for the current quarter, stocks continued to rally as December quarter concerns appear to melt away. While the market is hopeful, we will continue to focus on the details and nitty-gritty. Several Thematic Leaders continue to trounce the market and upcoming economic data should put some favorable context around Costco Wholesale (COST) shares. With Middle-class Squeeze consumers struggling, we take a look at LendingClub (LC) shares.

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A record number of consumers are 3 months or more behind in the car payments as consumers are less and less interested in borrowing despite record low unemployment levels and more jobs available than job seekers.

We view today’s sharp drop in the shares of USA Technologies (USAT) that comes on the back of what we see as no new developments in the Board’s previously announced accounting investigation as an opportunity to improve our cost basis in teh shares. Not should we not be surprised by the resignation of its auditors, one would have expected it several weeks ago. Moreover, the revenue called into question is a modest amount vs. reported revenue for the quarters in question.

The US stock market rallied in January and continues to move higher in February even as earnings expectations for the market continue to slump. While caution is warranted near-term, opportunities are emerging with Thematic King Amazon being a shining example. A Board additional to Living the Life company Del Frisco’s signals it is seriously evaluating takeover bids.

Cocktail Investing Podcast: Short Selling Anyone

While some issues that plagued the market towards the end of 2018 have rolled back, one, in particular, hasn’t and it’s one investors use to not only value stocks but determine which ones they are willing to pay up for. Plus Thematic Signals from Apple, Netflix, Amazon, Facebook, PepsiCo, Hershey and Proctor & Gamble.

Our Investment Themes

Aging of the Population

The impact on the economy of a global demographic shift to a more senior population

DIGITAL INFRASTRUCTURE

The foundational services and technologies that enable continuous access to information, commerce, communication, and entertainment that have become a daily fact of life.

DISRUPTIVE INNOVATORS

Disruptive Innovators today span not just technology, but also biological sciences, material science, healthcare, energy, consumer and business services.

LIVING THE LIFE

Those luxury goods and services that give pleasure to the buyer while also serving as a sign of having made it and reflect a level of social standing and indulgence

Rise of the Global Middle Class

Focuses on areas around the world where rising disposable incomes are driving consumers to look for ways to improve themselves and the way they live.

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CLEAN LIVING

The growing demand for products that claim to be natural, boost health, or have a positive impact on the environment.

DIGITAL LIFESTYLE

The confluence of high-speed networks, expanding computing power, and falling storage costs have changed how consumers interact, share, shop, transact, game, pay and consume content.

GUILTY PLEASURES

Those little treats and would-be harmless vices that we as consumers like or need to have from time to time even though there may be a form of guilt associated with indulging.

MIDDLE CLASS SQUEEZE

Lower employment, increased savings rates, lack of available credit, and weak income growth have led consumers to save where they can, seeking more value for each dollar spent.

SAFETY & SECRUITY

The evolving needs across individual, cyber, corporate and homeland security as behaviors shift away from reactionary defense towards always prepared and secure.

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