Recent Reports

Cocktail Investing Podcast Episode 93: Thematic Signals and the start of 4Q18 earnings season

The 4Q 2018 earnings season has begun and thus far we’ve had a number of high profile companies, including Apple (AAPL), Samsung, Ford (F), Sherwin Williams (SHW), and Macy’s (M), preannounce weaker than expected results for the quarter. This follows the continued flow of economic data pointing to a slowing global economy. All of this makes for a tenuous earnings season as the velocity of those reports kicks into high gear over the next few weeks.

The December quarter earnings season is upon us, and those reports have started on a decidedly mixed front. We’ve gotten more data pointing to a slowing economy, and the government shutdown continues. As we wait for the pace of earnings reports to move into high gear, the second half of 2018 was home to a number of thematically inspired M&A, and odds are more will be had in 2018. We add back USAT shares to the Tematica Select List and review several of the Thematic Leaders.

The thematic tailwinds associated with our 10 investment themes will continue to blow hard in 2019 and we will continue to focus on those companies that are capitalizing on those tailwinds and driving profit growth. In that light, we are using the market pullback to add to Axon Enterprises, the Safety & Security Thematic Leader, which will drop the cost basis considerably.

Tematica Research Membership

The Tematica Individual Membership provides thematic investing strategies, trading ideas, and analysis of the most pressing economic and market developments that drive both our thematic perspectives and investing strategies.
Financial Professionals and experienced Individual Investors that become members receive access to the Thematic Leaders List which includes the top stock in each theme, plus our top overall most thematically-positioned stock. Membership also includes the Tematica Select List which are additional trading ideas of stocks riding our 10 investment themes and regular on-going insights and commentary on the market from a thematic perspective.

Last night Apple fired an earnings flare across investor bows calling out the impact of not only the slowing global economy, and China’s in particular, but also the impact of the current US-China trade war. Those factors and several others are likely to weigh on corporate results and guidance to be had in the upcoming December quarter earnings season.

In order to look forward, you have to first assess what’s happened of late. With that in mind as we move past New Year’s Day and begin the 12-month march for 2019, we’re re-sharing the top 10 Cocktail Investing podcasts by the number of downloads for 2018.

With roughly a handful of trading days left in 2018, Tematica’s mixologists, Lenore Hawkins and Chris Versace, trace back some of the pivotal events of the last year that have been the primary drivers behind where the global economy, geo-political tensions, and the stock market are today. The issues that have plagued the market over the last several months are likely to do so as we close the books on 2018 and get ready for the upcoming December quarter earnings season.

The stock market reacted badly to the Fed’s latest monetary policy statement, but in re-reading it, it looks to be the prudent move after all.

Our Investment Themes

Aging of the Population

The impact on the economy of a global demographic shift to a more senior population

DIGITAL INFRASTRUCTURE

The foundational services and technologies that enable continuous access to information, commerce, communication, and entertainment that have become a daily fact of life.

DISRUPTIVE INNOVATORS

Disruptive Innovators today span not just technology, but also biological sciences, material science, healthcare, energy, consumer and business services.

LIVING THE LIFE

Those luxury goods and services that give pleasure to the buyer while also serving as a sign of having made it and reflect a level of social standing and indulgence

Rise of the Global Middle Class

Focuses on areas around the world where rising disposable incomes are driving consumers to look for ways to improve themselves and the way they live.

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CLEAN LIVING

The growing demand for products that claim to be natural, boost health, or have a positive impact on the environment.

DIGITAL LIFESTYLE

The confluence of high-speed networks, expanding computing power, and falling storage costs have changed how consumers interact, share, shop, transact, game, pay and consume content.

GUILTY PLEASURES

Those little treats and would-be harmless vices that we as consumers like or need to have from time to time even though there may be a form of guilt associated with indulging.

MIDDLE CLASS SQUEEZE

Lower employment, increased savings rates, lack of available credit, and weak income growth have led consumers to save where they can, seeking more value for each dollar spent.

SAFETY & SECRUITY

The evolving needs across individual, cyber, corporate and homeland security as behaviors shift away from reactionary defense towards always prepared and secure.

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