Category Archives: Econ. Acceleration / Deceleration

Debt, Debt and More Debt

Debt, Debt and More Debt

  While U.S. Consumer credit increased less than expected in January, we are concerned with what we are seeing in consumer loans and debt in general across the world. Auto Loans With our Cash-Strapped Consumer investing theme, the average amount financed and the duration of new auto loans continues to rise – same car, bigger […]

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Rising consumer credit card debt to be a headwind to GDP in 2018

We are starting to get not only holiday sales results from the likes of Kohl’s (KSS) and others, but also December same-store-sales results from Tematica Investing Select List resident Costco Wholesale (COST) and its retail brethren. Thus far the results are positive and in some cases much better than expected, but when we see we […]

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The Tematica take on Fed hikes, balance sheet contraction and other works of creative fiction

The Tematica take on Fed hikes, balance sheet contraction and other works of creative fiction

The market reaction to the FOMC statement is that it was more hawkish than what had already been priced in. While the market was priced at a 50/50 chance for a rate hike before the end of the year, the now infamous dot-plot shows that 12 of the 16 members expect one more hike this year, with one expecting two.

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SPECIAL ALERT – Adding LSI Industries to the Tematica Investing Select List

SPECIAL ALERT – Adding LSI Industries to the Tematica Investing Select List

Shares of LSI Industries are poised to benefit from post-hurricane rebuilding as well as the overall shift to light emitting diode (LED) lighting vs. conventional lighting technologies.

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Harvey, Irma and Trump – Strong Tailwinds For Infrastructure Stocks

Harvey, Irma and Trump – Strong Tailwinds For Infrastructure Stocks

Before too long and as the water clears in Texas following Hurrican Harvey, we’ll see rebuilding efforts spring forth. Near-term, we’re likely to see a hit to the overall economy, much the way we did after Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans. Accuweather projected it to have a $190 billion impact on the economy, which means we are likely to see a downtick in the economy in September and into October. If Accuweather’s eye-popping estimate is correct, Harvey would cost nearly as much to the economy as Hurricanes Katrina and Superstorm Sandy combined. In other words, expect third quarter 2017 GDP forecasts to be revised lower, and we could see the Fed hold off embarking on unwinding its balance sheet a tad longer.

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U.S. auto demand likely to see a post-Harvey pickup

U.S. auto demand likely to see a post-Harvey pickup

The tallies for the damage inflicted by Hurricane Harvey are rolling in, and in the coming days, we expect to see those figures refined even further. Retail and restaurants will clearly feel the pain, but so too will automotive dealerships in and around Houston, the fourth largest city in the U.S. This is likely to […]

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Yield Curve Flashing Warnings Sign

Yield Curve Flashing Warnings Sign

The spread between the 30 year Treasury yield and the 2 year Treasury yield is back down to the lows of last year. The only time in over a decade that we saw the yield curve this flat was back in 2007 when all hell was breaking loose. Look a little further up the curve, the […]

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Consumer Sentiment Closer to Economic Reality than Blankfein?

Consumer Sentiment Closer to Economic Reality than Blankfein?

The CEO and Chairman of Goldman Sachs (GS), Lloyd Blankfein, is arguably one hell of a sharp fellow, which leads us to believe there are reasons behind this that go beyond a straightforward assessment of the economy. Perhaps consumers see something different than what we hear in the mainstream financial media. The University of Michigan’s […]

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