Apple’s negative pre-announcement serves as a reminder to the number of risks that have accumulated

Apple’s negative pre-announcement serves as a reminder to the number of risks that have accumulated

Last night Apple fired an earnings flare across investor bows calling out the impact of not only the slowing global economy, and China’s in particular, but also the impact of the current US-China trade war. Those factors and several others are likely to weigh on corporate results and guidance to be had in the upcoming December quarter earnings season.

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Weekly Issue December 17 2018

Weekly Issue December 17 2018

As we get ready for the quiet holiday weeks for the stock market, we recap Costco’s latest earnings report as well as dig into several economic ones. While the November Retail Sales report is positive for several Thematic Leaders and Select List positions, the overall report adds to the growing list of data that points to slower growth ahead. We also share what to watch this week in the markets.

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The Rise of the New Middle-Class theme lets India air traffic take off and much more

Month to month economic and industry data can fluctuate, which is why we look at the data over a longer term. While passenger air traffic spiked in February, we see the annual growth rate of more than 20% over the last several years reflecting the growing economy and rising disposable income that are drivers of our […]

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Japan, China, and the U.S. working-age populations a headwind to global growth

Japan, China, and the U.S. working-age populations a headwind to global growth

A new report from Deloitte highlights one of the downsides of our Aging of the Population theme – the simple fact that economic growth is tied to the number of working-age people in a country’s population. Given prospects for a rising working population, India is widely expected to be the driver of global growth in […]

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Gallup data confirms the rising middle class in Asia is more than China & India

Gallup data confirms the rising middle class in Asia is more than China & India

Nothing better than having an organization like Gallup issue confirming data for our Rise & Fall of the Middle-Class investing theme. While most tend to understandably focus on China and India given the size of their respective populations, Gallup’s finding remind us upward economic mobility is occurring in other emerging Asian economies. This target market […]

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The Tematica take on Fed hikes, balance sheet contraction and other works of creative fiction

The Tematica take on Fed hikes, balance sheet contraction and other works of creative fiction

The market reaction to the FOMC statement is that it was more hawkish than what had already been priced in. While the market was priced at a 50/50 chance for a rate hike before the end of the year, the now infamous dot-plot shows that 12 of the 16 members expect one more hike this year, with one expecting two.

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Consumer debt above Great Recession levels is a headwind to spending and the economy

Consumer debt above Great Recession levels is a headwind to spending and the economy

We’ve seen the reports of rising consumer debt, and a new one confirms one aspect of our Cash-strapped Consumer investing theme —  “wage growth has been stagnant for five years for a large segment of the working populace — and that using cards is the result of the simple fact that people have to use […]

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