Published Research and Articles on the Disruptive Innovators Theme

Yesterday US investors were surprised to see the market suddenly drop around midday, the Dow falling almost 400 points at one point, with no one clear, obvious catalyst. The suspected culprit was a report of new coronavirus cases at a Beijing hospital combined with other reports of the outbreak accelerating outside of China. The coronavirus […]

Recently I touched on the several new additions to the S&P Dow Jones Dividend Aristocrats, a group of S&P 500 constituents that have increased their dividends for at least 25 years. Now, I am circling back to the latest dividend payment from an existing Aristocrat: PepsiCo (PEP) . Widely known for its products that include Pepsi, Lays, […]

The main equity indices closed mostly in the green in Asia today after China cut its 1-year loan prime rate (LPR) by ten basis points and its 5-year by five basis points. This move comes after the People’s Bank of China had earlier cut the rate on $28.65 billion worth of 1-year medium-term lending facility […]

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For Experienced Individual Investors and Financial Professionals

The Tematica Individual Membership provides thematic investing strategies, trading ideas, and analysis of the most pressing economic and market developments that drive both our thematic perspectives and investing strategies.
Financial Professionals and experienced Individual Investors that become members receive access to the Thematic Leaders List which includes the top stock in each theme, plus our top overall most thematically-positioned stock. Membership also includes the Tematica Select List which are additional trading ideas of stocks riding our 10 investment themes and regular on-going insights and commentary on the market from a thematic perspective.

The major equity indices in Asia bounced back from their recent slides shrugging off a growing list of companies warning over the impact of the coronavirus as all but the Shanghai composite closed in the green today. By midday, the main European equity indices were also in the green and US equity futures point to […]

Last Friday we noted traders would likely take a cautious stance heading into the long weekend that saw US equity markets closed yesterday in observation of Presidents’ Day and we were correct in our thinking as stocks gave back most of their gains to finish the day little changed. That concern proved to be on […]

One of the time-tested strategies for investors is buying companies with an increasing dividend policy. To say it is one of the most loved and most watched strategies would be something of an understatement given the incremental income it generates for investors and the $6.7 billion in assets held by ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats […]

Love may be the theme for today’s Valentine’s day, but the markets are mostly feeling, “I think I’ll just throw on my comfy sweats, grab a pint of ice cream and go for a Netflix marathon.” Or maybe that’s just us. Yesterday investors continued to reassess risk concerning COVID-19, leaving the major US indices little changed. […]

Stocks continued to shrug off concerns over the coronavirus and kicked into high-gear risk-on mode. The Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq Composite both hit new all-time highs. The VIX dropped 10% yesterday alone and the yield on the US 10-year rose 7 basis points. Absent from the party were WTI crude, which fell another 1% to […]

Yesterday the major indices reversed a bit of the decline since fears over the coronavirus began. The Nasdaq 100 lead the major US indices, gaining 1.5%, the Nasdaq Composite 1.3%, the S&P 500 0.7% and the Dow 30 0.5% while the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) lost 4.6%. The oil market continues to suffer with estimates that China’s oil […]

First off, after a nail biter of a game heading into half time, the Kansas City Chiefs dominated the fourth quarter to win Super Bowl LIV.  Before the game, the AFC and the NFC were tied for Super Bowl victories at 27 each. The last time both conferences had the same number of wins was […]

As we get ready to close the books on January, gains in equities earlier in the month have come under pressure as the coronavirus continues to expand. Earlier today China’s National Health Commission confirmed there have been 9,692 confirmed cases of the coronavirus, with 213 deaths, but reports suggest the virus has reached at least […]

In yesterday’s Daily Markets note, your authors shared that as equity markets looked to shrug off the mounting coronavirus news, our suspicion that we had yet to see the real fallout on economic growth and earnings expectations. It would seem we were correct in that thinking. Overnight economists updated their forecasts in an attempt to […]

As your authors commented to each other when discussing yesterday’s market rebound following the coronavirus inspired sell-off on Monday – “that didn’t last long!”  The Nasdaq 100 lead the rebound, gaining 1.6% on the day with the Nasdaq Composite a close second, up 1.4%. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.0% and […]

Despite the accelerating velocity for the current earnings season, markets remain focused on the rapidly spreading coronavirus which has surpassed 4,500 cases in China and led China to restrict travel to Hong Kong as the death toll tops 100. Some 60 million are under travel restrictions in China, and select countries, including Indonesia and the […]

Which stocks and sectors could see the most pressure today with Coronavirus spreading? Tematica’s Chris Versace joins Jay Coulter’s The Resilient Advisor Podcast to discuss that and discuss the week ahead’s economic data and earnings reports to watch. Click here to view the episode  

Investors are starting the week off with itchy fingers as they look to assess the growing impact of the coronavirus. As we write today’s Daily Markets note, roughly 2,800 people in China have been infected and 80 killed by the disease, and infections also reported in Europe and the US.  In response, Hong Kong has […]

Despite a rough start yesterday, the major US equity indices managed to close little changed after the World Health Organization (WHO) calmed rising fears around the coronavirus coming out of China. The WHO’s declaration that coronavirus is not a global emergency helped travel stocks such as American Airlines (AAL) and United Airlines (UAL) rebound. In contrast to the WHO, however, yesterday the Centers for […]

Despite a rather volatile session yesterday, stocks ended basically flat but well off their intraday highs. That said, the Nasdaq 100 is up nearly 40% YoY and up nearly 120% over the past four years. While many are comparing today’s markets to those of the late 1990s, your authors included, the Nasdaq 100 rose over 600% […]

The major US equity indices all closed in the red yesterday on the news that the Center for Disease Control identified the first case of coronavirus in the US – a traveler from China was diagnosed in Seattle. Shares of Wynn Resorts (WYNN) and Las Vegas Sands (LVS) lost 6.2% and 5.3% respectively on concerns that the increasingly global outbreak […]

Coming off the Martin Luther King holiday for which the US markets were closed yesterday, shares in Hong Kong led losses in Asia after Moody’s cut its rating for the city from Aa2 to Aa3 on Monday; there are also concerns over a new strain of coronavirus in China just as Lunar New Year holiday travel heats up. As we write […]

Many of the major US equity indices hit new all-time highs again yesterday, pretty standard at this point in 2020. After just 11 trading days in the new year, the S&P 500has already hit five all-time highs and yesterday moved past the 3,300 level for the first time, which has the index once again flirting with […]

One day after the US and China inked their phase one trade agreement, Asian equity indices finished on a mixed note, and European equities are also mixed while US equity futures point to a positive open as investors dig into and attempt to digest the eight-part, 96-page agreement. The long and short of it is there […]

Today is the day many have been waiting for as China and the US are expected to officially ink their phase one trade deal later this morning. In a potential “buy the rumor, sell the news moment,” Asian equities finished the day lower, and European equity indices are currently mixed, but little changed as are US equity […]

Today kicks off December quarter earnings season with earnings for the S&P 500 expected to have declined by 2% in the December quarter according to FactSet. If earnings do in fact contract during the December quarter, it will be the fourth consecutive quarter of year-over-year net income declines for the S&P 500. Despite this, the index managed to […]

This cybersecurity company will likely draw you in with its special $12 dividend, and then keep you for a while. In the last few days, NortonLifeLock (NLOK), the company formerly known as Symantec before selling its enterprise business to Broadcom (AVGO), announced a $12 per share special dividend. Before discussing that eye-popping special dividend, let’s […]

Last Friday stocks gave back all their earlier gains to leave the major US equity indices lower on the day. The major indices took a hit on Friday in response to the December Employment Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that showed nonfarm payrolls rose just 145k in December, well below expectations for 160k […]

The S&P 500 set a new intraday high and the Nasdaq Composite Index closed at a record high yesterday as investors breathed a sigh of relief and unclenched following President Trump’s statement that he would tighten sanctions on Iran – which would remain in place “until Iran changes its behavior” — rather than use military […]

Yesterday stocks tried to shake off the stress of the rising conflict between the US-Iran, but all the majority equity indices closed in the red. Early this morning US stock market futures dropped on the news that more than a dozen ballistic missiles were launched from Iran at two military bases in Iraq that host […]

The flight to safety trade reversed mid-day yesterday and is continuing this morning even though Bloomberg is reporting Iran considering thirteen response scenarios to the death of Qassem Soleimani. President Trump yesterday threatened 52 sites for retaliation against Iran, including some of cultural significance, and sanctions on Iraq. Mr. Market is back to being unimpressed. Asian equities closed […]

Who would have guessed back in December that the US-China trade war, which utterly dominated market headlines, would be pushed to the back-burner by threats between the US and Iran lobbed back and forth across Twitter? We are pretty sure Twitter’s founder Jack Dorsey did not imagine his creation being used by the President as a […]

The seemingly unstoppable upward movement of equity markets may have met its match last night. Yesterday, the first day of trading in 2020, saw the Nasdaq 100 rise 1.6%, the Nasdaq Composite gain 1.3%, the Dow 1.2%, and the S&P 500 0.8% driven in large part by the news that China’s central bank cut reserve […]

As 5G fires up across the nation and beyond, this chip-maker will likely be called on to let phones connect to new and old generations of networks. As the smartphone market has matured, it has become increasingly tied to replacement demand. Look at these statistics: As of December 2019, there are 5.175 billion unique mobile […]

Welcome to the first day of trading in 2020! Equity markets in Asia finished the day mixed with markets in Japan and New Zealand closed. The major stock indices in Europe were mostly in the green by midday trading except for Switzerland and Russia while US equity futures indicate positive moves at the open. Even […]

Bristol-Myers Squibb, Amgen and Abbott Labs all recently raised their dividends and should prosper amid the aging population. One of my investment themes, as I look for structural changes tied to the evolving economic, demographic, technological and psychographic landscapes, is the Aging of the Population. It’s no secret that several countries are experiencing a demographic […]

The equity markets have now been closing higher for five consecutive days, marking the longest winning streak since… wait for it…  November. This is giving investors the usual Christmas rally after last year’s brutal lump of December coal. While yesterday did technically see a higher close for the major indices, it was only by a smidgen […]

As investors get ready to close the books on 2019, we will, of course, review those stocks that beat the S&P 500’s year-to-date return. Those winning stocks go hand-in-hand with the common investor phrase “generating alpha.” One of those alpha generators is… Read more here

Yesterday major US indices rose to new highs in the fourth day of positive closes, but your authors here remain traumatized after coffee futures rose 7%, the biggest rally for the commodity since 2015. The coffee market panic was driven by an off-cycle crop year in Brazil coupled with strong global demand – perhaps all those late-night […]

Over the weekend we had confirmation of the phase-one trade deal between the US and China, which is putting equity markets is in a risk-on kind of mood as we head into the last full week of trading of 2019. Asian equities closed mixed on the day, while European equities are trading higher. US futures point to […]

This is the last full week of trading in 2019 as the markets will slow considerably after that given the Christmas and New Year’s holidays. Following Friday’s developments that have likely taken a meaningful amount of uncertainty out of the market, odds are investors will once again turn to assess the speed of the global […]

Santa came a tad earlier than usual this year, giving investors what they wanted most – a reduction in geopolitical uncertainty and an increase in liquidity – but is it all as it appears? Click here to read more including key economic data for the day and stocks making headlines and other news.

Everybody loves getting a present, be it an expected or unexpected one, and we are certainly in the present-giving time of year. For investors, the unexpected present could be a surge in the share price of one of their holdings, a larger-than-expected dividend increase or, in some very special instances, a special dividend. Special dividends […]

Today is all about the Fed, which, ironically, is expected to do nothing and leave rates unchanged. The major equity markets in Asia closed mixed today without much movement in either direction. By midday trading, the major European equity markets were also mixed and again lacking significant moves. US equity futures are mixed this morning with little movement predicted at […]

Yes, all good things do come to an end and that means an end to the Tematica Investing newsletter.

The Tematica Research Cleaner Living Index, which captures those companies benefitting from the shift to better for you products and services, cleaned up in 3Q 2019 compared to all the major US stock market indices.

Today’s Big Picture US market futures point to a modestly lower open Friday morning. After the disappointing manufacturing and services data this week, all eyes will be on today’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, which is expected to see 145,000 jobs added in September, up from 130,000 in August with the unemployment rate holding at 3.7% and wages gaining […]

Today’s Big Picture Barring any new developments on the trade wars or impeachment inquiry front, investors are focused on the release of September services data for the US and Europe. Has the weakness in manufacturing around the world expanded has into services? Stocks in Asia again were in the red today on news that the US will […]

As we get ready for the September quarter earnings season, we’re taking a look at how the September quarter faired.

In this week’s issue we are adding a new Digital Lifestyle position to the Select List, one that is benefitting from the shift in how consumers pay. We also touch on one of the first 2019 holiday shopping forecasts that is very favorable for this new Select List resident as well as a few other Tematica choices. We’ll also use the pullback in our new Living the Life Thematic Leader to improve the average cost basis.

Get ready for the market day ahead with the latest developments that will impact the economy and the stockmarket.

As the stock market and investors wait for the Fed’s upcoming monetary policy meeting and any additional US-China trade developments, we’re adding a new Thematic Leader for our Living the Life investing theme. We also share what investors are likely to focus on in the week ahead, and why the August Retail Sales report was rather confirming from a thematic perspective.

On this episode of the Thematic Signals podcast, Tematica’s Chris Versace breaks down the latest trade developments (including why he doesn’t think a two-step deal is likely) and discusses the European Central Bank rate cut before shares his thoughts on the continued plight of brick & mortar retail as Forever 21 is slated to file […]

In this week’s issue we dig into Apple’s 2019 iPhone event (yeah it was largely expected, but there were a few positives too), why we think Elliot Management is wrong about AT&T’s media play, how Volkswagen is about to disrupt the electric vehicle market, why a new California law could wreak havoc on Uber and Lyft, and why it’s likely game over for GameStop.

Here at Tematica, one of the things we like more than anyone of our investing themes is when two or more of them intersect as it forms a super-theme of sorts. We’ve seen numerous examples over the last several quarters, but there are also times when the tailwind of one of our themes presents a […]

Thematic Signals Podcast: Fixed Income View of Today's Market

On this episode of the Thematic Signals podcast, host Chris Versace is joined by Peter Tchir, who is the Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities who provides his fixed income perspective on the opportunities and challenges facing the current market.

In this week’s issue we recap the August stock market turbulence and share why it is more than likely going to continue in September, which is historically the worst month for the stock market. We establish a cover price for our short position in Veeco Instruments and examine recent Cleaner Living M&A moves by The Hershey Company.

With comments on trade offering a conflicting perspective, investors should continue to focus on the data, which continues to point to a slowing global. While trade related posturing will likely continue, we will look to focus on the details of any would be trade deal. Following D23 2019, we are boosting our price target on DIS shares. Also, here’s what you should be watching during this last week of summer.

From Greenland (what was that all about?) to a serious escalation in the trade war, politics are making for a Magic 8-Ball Market.

In this issue of Thematic Investing, we dig into the July Retail Sales Report as well as the issues that confounded the stock market last week. We examine what to watch in the week ahead during the dog days of summer that brings seasonally low trading volumes. We also examine what happens when a company slashes its dividend, and it’s not good news at all.

On this episode of the Thematic Signals podcast, we’re digging into the July Retail Sales and quarterly earnings results from Walmart as both confirm the hard-blowing tailwinds associated with our Digital Lifestyle, Middle-Class Squeeze, Aging of the Population and Cleaner Living Investing themes.

Each week Team Tematica consumes a voracious amount of content as we look to stay on top of the latest data and mine it for tailwind and headwind signals for our 10 investment themes. Here’s are several notable pieces from the last few days.

As we saw last week, trade and geopolitics are likely to take center stage as the bulk of the June quarter earnings season is in the rear view mirror. While retail earnings are still ahead of us, odds are both trade and geopolitical issues will keep the market rangebound near-term as it contends with a big ball of uncertainty. Our response will be to ferret out thematically well positioned companies with inelastic business models that are dividend payers.

Investors need to be watching the moves in the dollar closely, look for those companies with strong balance sheets and cash flows and consider increasing liquidity. The next few months (at least) are likely to be a bumpy ride.

Dr. Roy Speiser of CWR Environmental Products joins this week to discuss the environmental abuse, industrial greed and governmental neglect that has led to the harsh reality that our water supply is not as clean or as safe as we think it is.

In this week’s earlier than usual issue we sum up what hit the stock market last week and where it means the herd will likely head in the near-term. The good news is, we are already there with a number of Thematic Leader and Tematica Select List holdings. We also touch on the key data to watch this week, as well as call out a confirming article in the latest issue of Bloomberg Businessweek that speaks to the coming streaming video war that could change one of the playing fields associated with our Digital Lifestyle investing theme.

This week is probably the busiest one in some time as we have a seas of corporate earnings and economic data coming at us, not to mention the Fed’s latest monetary policy meeting at which it is widely expected to cut rates. And I’ll tell you why I’m not feeling so bad about being stopped out of Netflix shares.

When economies and markets are near a turning point, often the headlines tell a very different story than is revealed by digging deeper into the data – you can’t judge a book by its cover.

A look at the thematic outlook we can piece together from the flow of earnings reports we’ve received thus far, including what’s moving Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), International Airlines Group (ICAGY), IBM (IBM), Netflix (NFLX), Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) and the impact of spending on cybersecurity.

We are in the early stages of the June 2019 quarterly earnings season, and yes, there are disappointments to be had. The economic data continues to point to a slowing economy, and expectation related concerns for the second half of 2019 remain. We are boosting our stop loss on Costco Wholesale shares, and Axon Enterprises catches a nice win.

Central bankers around the world are opening the stimulus flood gates, markets celebrate and all is good with the world… or is it?

The domestic stock market stared the September quarter giving back some of the June gains as concerns over Fed interest rate cut prospects and the June quarter earnings season weighed on investors. Heading into that, the Thematic Leaders and Select List positions have several strong performers year to date. In particular, we will continue to hold AT&T and Universal Display shares. Finally, we recap the first half return for the Tematica Research Cleaner Living Index.

Key points inside this issue  June quarter earnings season could reset second half expectations  Introducing the Tematica Research Cleaner Living Index Setting protective stop loss levels for the Select List  We are issuing a Sell rating and removing both AXT Inc. (AXTI) and Energous Corp. (WATT) shares from the Select List  And the data continues […]

As consumers continue to shift to digital shopping, a key stool in our Digital Lifestyle investing theme, we are not only seeing more companies embrace the direct to consumer (D2C) business model, but we are also seeing more digital shopping solutions for those companies come to market. Internet shopping platform company Shopify is doing just […]

There are weeks when sitting down to write this piece is tough because not much worthy of note has happened in the markets or the economy outside of the usual noise. This week, that was most definitely not the case. Thank God it is Friday – we all need a break. New Market Highs and […]

Using Options to Protect Yourself in an Uncertain Market

On this episode of the Thematic Signals podcast, Tematica’s Chris Versace is joined by Bob Lang, founder of and Chief Options Trader at Explosive Options, to talk all options and options strategies, including how an investor can use them to protect themselves in an uncertain stock market. While we focus on thematics, Bob focuses on charts and technical analysis to chart his way for both the market and his options trades.

Today we have Fed Wednesday and all eyes will be watching not only what the Fed says but how it says it when it comes to what’s next for monetary policy. Odds are the Fed will wait until it knows the fallout from the G20 summit, but investors are already bracing for an ugly next few weeks. This is prompting us to revisit stop loss levels for the Thematic Leaders.

Sal Gilbertie of Teucrium Trading joins the Thematic Signals Podcast and shares how investors should think about commodities across the 5 to 7-year cycle and why the upcoming G20 summit could serve as another catalyst for commodity prices to move higher.

Near-term bad news is good news for the stock market but we run the risk of the market over pricing in a Fed rate cut in the near-term. The key the Fed will likely be watching will be the upcoming trade meeting. Also, with GDP expectations coming down, we see more risk in EPS expectations that have yet to really follow that move lower. As the streaming video market is poised to get more competitive in the second half of 2019, we are adding a stop loss to Netflix shares.

The markets bet big on Central Bank intervention as labor markets and economic activity overall slows amidst rising geopolitical risks. Plus, we have definitive proof we’ve hit the peak of the economic cycle.

Trade worries continue to escalate stoking uncertainty in the process and raising investor concerns. This has led the major market indices to leak year to date gains, but we have yet to see the trade and tariff impact be factored into earnings and growth expectations for the second half of 2019. As that happens in the coming weeks, the market waters are likely to remain choppy at best. We’ll continue to heed the thematic signals that have guide our thematic investing lens that has allowed the bulk of the thematic leaders to shine so far in 2019.

We continue to see the market expansion for CBD products, some of which tie into our Cleaner Living investing theme while other hemp-related derivatives fall into our Disruptive Innovators theme. There is little question that a CBD infused ice cream from former hippies Ben & Jerry would be part of our Guilty Pleasure investing theme. Candidly, we […]

Welcome to the Thematic Signals podcast, where we look to distill everyday noise into clear investing signals using our thematic lens and our 10 investing themes. Every week we not only discuss key events that are shaping the stock market, but we also look at key sign posts for the changing economic, demographic, psychographic, and […]

With trade and economic uncertainty remaining in focus for the stock market, we are addding a defensive thematic position in AT&T shares to the Select List given the sticky mobile busines, 6.3% dividend yield and the pending valuation transformation to be had with WarnerMedia. Retailers continue to be in headwind hotwater with two of our investing themes, and Gap specific decision puts its dividend at risk. That has us adding a Gap put position at Tematica Options+ this week.

While the markets are obsessing over the latest trade war headlines, few are watching what really matters . . . and it affects everyone.

As expected, US-China trade has once again taken center stage, and with prospects likey stalled in the short-term, it means the market is once again sitting on trade pins and needles. Meanwhile fresh data show the economy is slowing considerably compared to the March quarter, and odds are investors will start to question June quarter EPS expectations and the market’s current valuation. With President Trump dropping the hammer on Chinese telecom company Hauwei, we discuss the impact to the Thematic Leaders and Select List residents.

A record 13.3 gigawatts of new capacity from wind producers came online in 2012, which no so coincidentally coincided with an expiring tax credit program for that year. This year, 2019, the projection is for 12.7 gigawatts of new capacity to come online. Obviously, consumer demand for alternative energy, part of our Cleaner Living investment […]

The market has embraced a new round of uncertainty as US-China trade took a route few were expecting just a few weeks ago. New rounds of tariffs have amped up trade talk tensions while leading investors to once again question growth expectations for the economy and earnings.

While the “experts” claim the economy is booming and the bull market is solid, we see the emperor does not have new clothes.

As we have long said, thematic intersections can pave the way for pronounced transformation as two tailwinds change the existing landscape. As we continue to age and live longer, companies are examining new solutions to improve those aged lives. In the past, we’ve seen those take on a variety of forms, and now we are […]

This week another Art of the Deal salvo from President Trump brought volatility back in the market as US-China trade talk concerns erupted. We suspect this is part of some late stage negotiating strategy by Trump to win extra concessions from China, but we need to see how trade talks progress this week to see what happens next. Also this week, the European Union once again trimmed its 2019 growth prospects and following its March quarter earnings we are removing Del Frisco’s shares from the Thematic Leaders.

As the March quarter earnings season wears on, we’ve got some updates to share on several thematic leaders and select list residents. We also puzzle through the latest economic data, which despite the eye popping initial March quarter GDP print suggest the global economy is on a slowing path. With a choppy earnings market, we’re sitting out from making a new options call this week, waiting for the choppy waters to calm before putting capital to work in either long or short option positions.

This morning we received the first estimate for Q1 2019 GDP, and it looked at first glance to be considerably better than was expected with the economy expanding at a 3.2% annual pace versus consensus expectations for 2.3% and growth of 2.2% in Q4 2018. Just don’t break out the champagne quite yet as right away we see reasons to dig deeper.

This week we go from the frying pan into the earnings season fire with 30% of the S&P 500 companies report their quarterly results. This will offer a number of thematic data points, as we illustrate with the results from Coca-Cola, Lockheed Martin, Twitter and Verizon. We also chew on the conflicting signals between the Retail Sales and Housing data for March. The answer to that leads us to add a call option position in Home Depot shares at Tematica Options+.

News coming out of Bentonville, AR this week details a series of store enhancements and renovations to 500 Walmart stores in the coming years. As we read through the discount retailer’s plans, the “ding” buttons were going off in our heads as many of them directly touch upon our investment themes. At a reported total cost of $11 billion, these plans are set to have a major impact on both store operations and the customer experience of shoppers. Here is a quick rundown of what we learned.

Ahead of the Easter holiday week, we have a jam packed issue as we review some of the latest economic data and breakdown the IMF’s recent downward revision for its 2019 GDP forecast. And yes, earning season is almost upon us. Before that, we have Disney’s annual Investor Day at which it will formally debut its streaming service Disney+. We also visit with Middle Class Squeeze Thematic Leader Costco Wholesale (COST) following blow out March quarter same-store sales. And eMarketer gives us reasons to be positive on Alphabet/Google as well as Thematic King Amazon. At Options+, we will continue to hold our short position in Veeco Instruments as well as our inverse call option position as earnings season gets underway.

Walmart is teaming with Alphabet Inc. to take the grocery fight via voice ordering to Amazon and its Whole Foods, Alexa combination. In a blog post, Walmart shared that starting this month, customers would be able to grocery shop through the Google Assistant by saying, “Hey, Google, talk to Walmart.” This seems like a positive […]

As we close the books on the barn burning March quarter for stocks, risks remain as we head into the March quarter earnings season. A number of Thematic Leaders delivered outsized returns during the March quarter, and we recap several positions that have been in the news including Apple, Universal Display and others.

At the intersection of our Connected Society and Disruptive Innovators investing themes sits those companies that will turn the datafication of our lives into actionable information.

The tailwinds from the offshore wind power initiatives run deep into our Cleaner Living theme, obviously. This article also shows the impact it’s having on our Disruptive Innovators theme as well.

Geopolitics continue to provide an oversized degree of uncertainty as the C suite is increasingly concerned we will experience a recession before the close of 2020. With so many unknowns, focusing on what we do know reveals significant risks.

We continue to recevie more signs of a slowing global economy that along with other factors looks to be setting up a rocky March quarter earnings season. We continue to think investors should have some downside protection in their holdings for at least the next several weeks.

With the stock market seemingly once again ignoring the growing risks that could lead to a rocky March quarter earnings season, we are making sure subscribers have downside protection amid their holdings.

We are only starting to see commercial deployment of 5G mobile technology, but efforts are already underway for the next evolution of mobile connectivity. Here at Tematica, we’ve been saying there will be another “G” after 5G, much the way there was a 4G after 3G and 2G. With applications still being realized for 4G […]

Tematica Research Context and Perspectives

The early equity market strength in 2019 has many on financial television claiming we are off to the races yet again (shock) but taking a step back and looking at both the internals of the markets and the longer-term economic and geopolitical trends, we see more signs of weakness and rising risks.

The construction and weighting of the indices that power the major market indices as well as ETFs make all the difference as highlighted by Boeing’s current 737 aircraft issues.

The driver for the market so far this week has been retail and Boeing, and we tackle what’s going on with both. We’re adding a new Disruptive Innovator to the Select List and holding steady with Del Frisco shares following good earnings, but not a word on its strategic initiatives.

Some of the issues that electric vehicle owners and potential ones have had to wrap their heads around have included contending with the maximum distance their electric vehicle can travel on a full charge, the amount of time to fully charge the vehicle and where to charge it. Even as Tesla is ramping its fast […]

Between online and mobile ordering, order ahead and in-store pickup, and scan & buy shopping, technology continues to disrupt retail. One of those key disruptors has been Amazon but others, and especially so Walmart, have been vying to catch it. In the last year, Amazon has debuted one of its latest disruptors in its AmazonGo stores […]

Last week’s economic data confirms the global economy continues to slow, and for now, the US remains the best economy on the block. Through the first two months of 2019, the domestic stock market has been on fire even as earnings expectations and dividends continue to be cut. As earnings season fades, time to watch insider selling activity to gauge what lies ahead. Following last week’s earnings report and subsequent drop, we’re doubling down on a Digital Infrastructure Thematic Leader.

Spinning out of Mobile World Congress 2019, an annual mobile event that tends to see a number of announcements each year, perhaps the biggest news on the 5G front is found in one of the smallest devices that you’ll probably never see. These strips could help solve the coverage and range issues associated with 5G […]

Liquidity Trumps Fundamentals in The March 1 edition of Context and Perspectives

Equity markets have once again diverged materially from fundamentals as the perception of the central bank put from the world’s biggest economies overrides fundamentals. I’ve been admittedly surprised by how long this has been going on and how wide the divergence has become, but we are seeing now seeing substantial overhead resistance level for the S&P 500 at a time when challenging fundamentals are growing.

In this week’s issue, we dig into the latest shareholder letter from Warren Buffett, examine the growing number of dividend cuts and other factors make the year to date melt up in the stock market something of a head-scratcher. That best performance in 20+ years hinges on a successful trade deal with China, but there are other factors that we need to examine so we don’t fall prey to a “buy the rumor, sell the news” scenario. We recap the sharp move in Universal Display shares following its latest earnings report and touch on favorable news emanating from Mobile World Congress 2019 for Nokia.

As we enter Mobile World Congress 2019, arguably the mobile event of the year, 5G network and device launch details are coming into greater focus. Verizon is taking the early lead in the US staking out 5G to 30 cities in the US by the end of 2019. Of course, 30 cities is hardly national […]

Another week of the stock market melting up as December quarter issues continue to fall the wayside. Yet, companies continue to serve up weaker guidance leading earnings expectations to fall. There are fresh concerns over the speed of the domestic economy, which continues to look like the best one on the economic block. We break down recent positive data for Amazon, Google, and Costco Wholesale, and discuss what’s ahead with Universal Display and Mobile World Congress 2019.

We’ve often said that navel-gazing in one’s home geography and not looking outside those borders can lead to missing inflection as well as tipping points. That’s especially so with our Disruptive Innovators investing theme given there tend to be some preconceived notions as to where those adoption points are likely to be. Fairly often, there […]

Context & Perspectives on the Market and Economy for February 15 2019 by Lenore Hawkins of Tematica Research

  The market is now back in a bullish mood that is driven primarily by the “not gonna happen” news flow hopes. Rate hike? Not gonna happen. Government shutdown repeat? Not gonna happen. China trade war escalation? Not gonna happen. The question is, just how long can the “not gonna happen” hopes keep pumping hot […]

As we approach the halfway market for the current quarter, stocks continued to rally as December quarter concerns appear to melt away. While the market is hopeful, we will continue to focus on the details and nitty-gritty. Several Thematic Leaders continue to trounce the market and upcoming economic data should put some favorable context around Costco Wholesale (COST) shares. With Middle-class Squeeze consumers struggling, we take a look at LendingClub (LC) shares.

We view today’s sharp drop in the shares of USA Technologies (USAT) that comes on the back of what we see as no new developments in the Board’s previously announced accounting investigation as an opportunity to improve our cost basis in teh shares. Not should we not be surprised by the resignation of its auditors, one would have expected it several weeks ago. Moreover, the revenue called into question is a modest amount vs. reported revenue for the quarters in question.

The US stock market rallied in January and continues to move higher in February even as earnings expectations for the market continue to slump. While caution is warranted near-term, opportunities are emerging with Thematic King Amazon being a shining example. A Board additional to Living the Life company Del Frisco’s signals it is seriously evaluating takeover bids.

Tematica Research Context and Perspectives for Feb 1 2019: What if Everyone Is Looking the Wrong Way?

Over the past few months, the investing markets have considered Federal Reserve Chairman Powell enemy number one. Earlier this week the markets once again showed that America’s central bank drives sentiment more than any other factor, forget trade wars, forget earnings, forget political drama, it is the Fed and only the Fed that matters. Investing is all about finding an inflection point, where the market is wrong – pricing an asset too high or too low, believing a policy to be beneficial when it isn’t or vice versa. Given the ubiquitous nature of the belief that the Fed is the central bank that really matters to the market, what if that supposition is wrong? What if everyone is looking in the wrong direction with the wrong set of expectations?

The market catches a positive breather following Apple’s not as bad as it could have been December quarter earnings report. We still have several hundred reports to go, and the preponderance of companies are issuing weaker than expected guidance. As we navigate upcoming reports and puzzle what they mean for 2019 earnings expectation, the Fed will emerge from its latest monetary policy meeting today, and later this week we should learn how the latest round of US-China trade talks went. Verizon is bulls up on 5G, and that along with issues for China mobile company Huawei as well as bullish earnings report from Ericsson pave the way for a solid one from Disruptive Innovator Leader Nokia.

We are seeing yet another shift in consumer products at the intersection of our Clean Living and Disruptive Innovators investing themes wherein the world’s biggest consumer brands are looking to provide their products to consumers in refillable containers so as to reduce waste. This creates a tailwind behind those providing the containers and the refilling […]

As earnings expectations get cut for the first half of 2019, we remove Altria (MO) from the Thematic Leaders and discuss takeout speculation on USA Technologies. With earnings season kicking into high gear over the next week, volatility is likely to ensue and that keeps us on the sidelines this week.

As the Market Bounces Off Oversold Conditions, Is this the start of another bull run?

So far in 2019, we are seeing a reversal of the heavily oversold conditions from the end of 2018. Those stocks that were hit the hardest in 2018 are materially outperforming the broader market in 2019. The fundamentals, however, both domestically and internationally are not giving us reason to think that this bounce is the start of another major bull run. With all the uncertainty out there, despite the market’s recent “feel good” attitude, we expect to see rising volatility in the months to come as these problems are not going to be easily sorted out.

The December quarter earnings season is upon us, and those reports have started on a decidedly mixed front. We’ve gotten more data pointing to a slowing economy, and the government shutdown continues. As we wait for the pace of earnings reports to move into high gear, the second half of 2018 was home to a number of thematically inspired M&A, and odds are more will be had in 2018. We add back USAT shares to the Tematica Select List and review several of the Thematic Leaders.

We have another sign that transformation is underway at the pharmacy, which over the years has morphed from pharmacy only to a mix of pharmacy, personal care products, and convenience store. Yes, I’ve been known to pick up holiday decorations and even some pre-movie candy. There has been another set of pivots, including the launch […]

Artificial Intelligence, robotics, autonomous vehicles, smartphones, tablets, and cloud computing. These are the “sexy” Disruptive Innovators, Digital LIfestyle and Digitial Infrastructure theme gadgets that grab the headlines for the annual Consumer Electronics Show held each year in Las Vegas. What isn’t expected is the latest and greatest purchases we will make for Nana in 2019.

The thematic tailwinds associated with our 10 investment themes will continue to blow hard in 2019 and we will continue to focus on those companies that are capitalizing on those tailwinds and driving profit growth. In that light, we are using the market pullback to add to Axon Enterprises, the Safety & Security Thematic Leader, which will drop the cost basis considerably.

In the coming years, the demand for chip processing power within cars is going to be enormous — even before fully autonomous vehicles even become a mainstay.  Lane control systems, adaptive cruise control, crash detection systems all place demands on the digital infrastructure inside and outside of a car, not to mention the ability for passengers to stream movies, music and other media as they pass the time.

Last night Apple fired an earnings flare across investor bows calling out the impact of not only the slowing global economy, and China’s in particular, but also the impact of the current US-China trade war. Those factors and several others are likely to weigh on corporate results and guidance to be had in the upcoming December quarter earnings season.

The stock market reacted badly to the Fed’s latest monetary policy statement, but in re-reading it, it looks to be the prudent move after all.

As we get ready for the quiet holiday weeks for the stock market, we recap Costco’s latest earnings report as well as dig into several economic ones. While the November Retail Sales report is positive for several Thematic Leaders and Select List positions, the overall report adds to the growing list of data that points to slower growth ahead. We also share what to watch this week in the markets.

As the smartphone market matures, HTC’s efforts in artificial intelligence, augmented and virtual reality are bearing fruit initially in the healthcare sector, but that is just the beginning for these Disruptive Innovation applications.

With Volvo, Daimler, Tesla and others testing electric trucks, before too long the move to electric vehicles is set to move beyond the car market driving demand for a number of newer technologies and solutions.

New touch-integrated OLED screens could jumpstart 2019 iPhone demand with a thinner, lighter and cheaper alternative to OLED displays used in the iPhone X, iPhone XS, and XS Max.

Market dynamics are reflecting the increase in macro/political volatility across much of the world, but the headlines have yet to catch up with the primary drivers underlying the deep changes. In our previous Context & Perspective piece, I discussed how we are seeing a profound decline in the level of liquidity at a time when debt levels are back to record highs. This week is a highlight reel of warning signs in the context of those record levels of debt.

An expansion of its telemedicine program with Walmart, T-Mobile and Philips to meet veteran needs, the Department of Veterans Affairs is one to watch for this aspect of our Digital Innovators investing theme, which has implications for two other investment themes.

In this issue, investor anxiety continues and we’ll hang onto our short S&P 500 position. Del Frisco’s shares garner some activity attention, but the fundamentals remain intact. Plus, what we should be focusing on in the week ahead.

Japan is embracing IoT and other disruptive technologies to address pain points associated with its aging population. These could be a harbinger of what’s to come here in the US and bodes well for several other of our investment themes.

We are adding some downside protection to our holdings even as Samsung draws a line in the 5G sand and that has us calling Nokia shares up to the Thematic Leaders from the Select List. We also add shares of Skyworks Solutions to the Contender’s List and address recent cannabis rumors surrounding Altria.

We are starting to see artificial intelligence, augmented reality and other aspects of our Disruptive Innovators being adopted in retailers to increase their services in a bid to drive traffic and revenues.

We’ve closed the books on a painful November, and while progress on the US-China trade front is popping the stock market today a number of issues remain that will likely come into focus as the relief rally fades. We recap the Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday holiday shopping, a boon for our Digital Lifestyle investing theme and discuss what investors should be watching this week as we kick off the last month of the trading year.

Ever the disruptor, Amazon is testing its cashierless checkout technology in larger format stores compared to the footprint for Amazon Go. Implications about even if Amazon keeps the technology to itself.

We are in the midst of major shifts in market dynamics. With risiing debt levels and falling liquidity we are seeing a headwind to EPS generation that investors and the multiples they assign to the stock market will have to contend with.

Ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, the stock market continued to take several gut punches this week, which erased the market’s year to date gains. While we saw this coming, it’s still a tough pill to swallow, but we’ll be patient and prepared as we listen to the confirming data that are our Thematic Signals. Inside this issue, we chart the key items to watch over the coming days, including Black Friday to Cyber Monday, the upcoming Fed minutes and the G20 Summit face-off between the US and China. We also take a look at WATT shares.

The stock market continues to grapple with several headwinds across the geopolitical, economic and economic landscapes. Near-term the changing market mood will be challenging, but we continue to receive favorable signals that confirm our thematic approach.

After a brutal October, the market has managed to regain some of the ground it lost in the early days of November. But it is unusual for the S&P 500 to lose 10% or more twice in any given year. Going back roughly half a century, such double-dipping typically precedes or occurred in conjunction with a recession, (with the exception of 1987 which wasn’t much fun). Is this time different?

Looking to jumpstart its business and brand, Harley-Davidson is joining the ranks of electric vehicles and attempting to tap into our Clean Living investing tailwind.

While we’re enjoying the post-mid-term election rebound in the market, several concerns remain and that means remaining cautious near-term. We’re also discussing earnings from Axon, Disney and Del Frisco’s as well as sharing what’s on ou radar screen for next week. Hint: Italy.

7-11 embraces the Disruptive Innovation that is Scan & Pay to reshape the retail experience

While Wall Street questions Apple’s earnings, we see its moves as very much in step with our Digital Lifestyle investing theme.

The power of disruptive technology leads to down dog taking down those trusty Levi 501s.

Our disruptive technology investing theme is pervading many aspects of the grocery industry from robotics to autonomous delivery vans, reinventing one of the oldest sectors of the economy.

This week we closed the books on the month of October, and what a month it was for the stock market. In short, the month of October wiped out most the market’s year to date gains as investors digested both September quarter earnings and updated guidance that spurred a re-think in top and bottom line expectations.

Kroger eyeing Amazon as it implements robotics in its warehouses to improve its operations.

As expected economic reality is catching up with the stock market, leading to another volatile week as investors reset expectations. With more of the same likely on tap next week, I’m sitting back and collecting earnings-related data points to update our investing mosaic using our thematic lens as the risk to reward in stock prices becomes more favorable.

October Buy-the-Dip Trick or Treat?

For months we have pointed out that US stocks have been outperforming the rest of the world and we warned that this earnings season would likely be a very bumpy ride as earnings would probably be decent, but guidance would not support the market’s multiples. Our concerns have proven warranted.

Qualcomm is partnering with Amazon to bring its Alexa digital assistant to more devices, challenging mutual foe Apple in the process.

By using virtual reality, Macy’s is not only protecting its furniture business but its greater sales conversions and fewer returns.

In a busy as well as volatile week, we continue to receive confirming data points for our investment themes and thematic holdings from a variety of sources including the September Retail Sales report as well as September quarter earnings reports and other events. This week we are scaling once again into our DFRG shares.

What we are currently seeing in the market is a symptom of a whole lot of leverage in equities that had been in rich territory at a time when, even though it is still moving along, signs abound that the economy is slowing. Is this a ‘buy the dip’ opportunity or is it just the […]

Divvy aims to address the pain point of affordable housing, but is it the right time in the business cycle for this disruptive business model ?

Following yesterday’s sharp selloff, we’re explaining the why behind it and what our battle plan will be over the coming days and weeks as corporate reporting for the September quarter kicks into high gear.

New technologies have the potential to either upend the existing playing field or bring about new value propositions that render past business models passe. One of those that is expected to usher in a wider array of connectivity with speeds that match existing cable broadband speeds is 5G. Often times, these new technologies take time, […]

We’ve said it before and odds are we will say it again – applications for our Disruptive Innovators can come from a number of areas, including ones that are less than obvious. Big Data and its use in the restaurant industry is such an example as those companies look to overcome flat traffic trends and […]

When most people talk about rising disposable incomes, the knee-jerk reaction tends to be one that involves China or India. While those are natural reactions and are key drivers for our Rise of the New Middle-class investing theme, we are seeing the same begin to unfold in Africa as auto companies invest for what they […]

In this week’s packed issue of Tematica Investing, we are adding to our positions in Alibaba (BABA) and Del Frisco’s (DFRG), assessing the National Retail Federation’s 2018 Holiday Shopping Forecast, and previewing Costco’s (COST) earnings report that will hit after today’s market close.

Revisions to S&P’s Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) means big changes to mutual fund and ETF holdings that tracks one of several indices, but were these reclassifications outdated before they even launched?

As Tematica Investing subscribers know, we are big fans of Amazon and one of the key reasons is how it removes friction from a transaction. We are seeing others adopt aspects of our Disruptive Innovators to follow in those footsteps. More often than not the adoption of such new technologies, like Augmented Reality (AR), can […]

We’ve got a full issue this week as we tackle the findings of the recent flash ISM Report and the Business Roundtable survey, get ready for the Fed’s expected rate hike later today and share one of the bigger changes taking place at S&P that will reverberate through mutual funds and ETFs. All that plus some good news for our AAPL and OLED shares.

In Puerto Rico, we are seeing the phenomenon of Disruptive Innovation play out in the area of renewable energy as residents struggle to get back on their feet following Hurricane Maria. What was once a savings or clean energy advantage, solar power is almost becoming a necessity for safety and security.

Last week all eyes were on Apple and Fall 2018 new model iPhone launch and this week Amazon is taking the new product spotlight as it announces a number of new Echo products and others that include its digital assistant, Alexa. These products confirm that our view several years ago that voice would be the […]

There has been much talk this year about the rapid rise and fall of Bitcoin. We here at Tematica have long said the far more interesting disruptor is Blockchain, and as Bitcoin has fallen hard in recent weeks, we’ve seen a flurry of renewed news flow for blockchain, including a growing number of patent filings […]

If you’ve been in a checkout line – either one with a cashier or a self-checkout one – you’ve probably experienced the hassle of waiting in line, sometimes for what may seem like forever if coupons, checkbooks and the like are being fished for. One of the successful strategies employed by Amazon is its ability […]

Following the recasting of our investing themes over the last several, we are introducing The Thematic Leaders, which crystallize and embody their respective thematic tailwinds.

Following several bullish data points from last week, including ones found in the August Retail Sales report, we are adding to our position in Del Frisco’s Restaurant Group (DFRG). The August Retail Sales report was also positive for our Amazon, UPS, Costco Wholesale and McCormick & Co. shares.

We are on the cusp of seeing 5G network service being deployed, just not in the application that many of us would expect. That’s right, not the smartphone but rather for in-home wireless service and it’s from Verizon. Pretty interesting given that Verizon mostly stopped expanding FiOS fiber-to-the-home service in 2010 and since then has been […]

It’s rather easy to recognize the growing influence that gaming (and by that we mean video games) is having on our culture from entertainment, sports, and a few other vantage points. With networked and multi-player gaming, we are seeing gaming chip away at more traditional forms of content consumption, with certain titles giving way to […]

In this issue, we finish our thematic recasting as we revisit our Aging of the Population investing theme and introduce AMN Healthcare (AMN) shares to fold.

With the news of delayed 10K filing and an internal investigation into accounting and other issues, we are exiting the shares of USA Technologies.

The right to defend yourself and your property apply in today’s increasingly connected world, just as it did more than 200 years ago. While the public debate and much of the media coverage focus on the Second Amendment and the right to keep and bear arms, the threats we face today are changing, just as the way we interact with people, data and content are changing.

Based on the company’s robust August same-store sales results, which capped its August quarter, we are boosting our price target on COST shares to $250 from $230.

The inelastic nature of the products produced by these guilty pleasure companies has enabled them to weather price increases better than other products and services that are considered to be more of a commodity in nature. One in particular, as unfashionable as it might be, has us adding it to the Tematica Select List this week.

When even the owner of a gym is struggling the time for fitness, we see the market as ripe for a Disruptive Innovator. Peleton is the first major entrant into this space we see between Disruptive Innovator and the Digital Lifestyle in which those seeking fitness are able to squeeze a class into their ever […]

We have long said one of the dark sides of our Digital Lifestyle investing theme is a tailwind for our Safety & Security theme, and a new report makes the case for the not only the reverse, but it also invokes our Disruptive Innovators one as well. I’m talking about mobile payments. With debit and […]

In this missive, we are breaking down the August ISM Manufacturing Report and its components, plus sharing a quick update on Paccar that keeps us bullish on the shares. We also remind subscribers that after tonight’s market close, Costco Wholesale shares its latest same-store-sales report.

Tematica’s Living the Life investing theme looks to capture the global spending on higher-end affordable luxury as well as luxury branded goods and services that from an economic perspective have a high-income elasticity of demand. As people become wealthier, which we are seeing with the Rise of the Middle Class across many emerging economies, especially China, they will buy more luxury goods.

I’ve been keeping a close watch on the shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG. The company was previously part of what we now refer to as our Clean Living investment theme given its use of fresh, high-quality raw ingredients including meats that are raised without the use of non-therapeutic antibiotics or added hormones and none of the ingredients in the food (excluding beverages) in U.S. restaurants contain genetically modified organisms (GMOs). 

We are nearing the commercial deployments of 5G, one of the next-gen technologies that fall under our Disruptive Innovators investing theme. By sharing its 5G essential patent licensing rates, Nokia is offering one of the firmest signals that 5G devices will soon be a reality. Initial shipments are expected to begin in 2019 and reach […]

In this week’s issue, we are closing out our position in Habit Restaurants with a tasty gain, adding a new position in Alibaba as part of Digital Lifestyle investing theme. We also have some updates on our positions in Apple and Universal Display, both of which have been on a tear lately.

There is are several factors pressuring margins at hospitals that are poised to accelerate the pace in hospital closures. This comes at a time, keeping with or Aging of the Population investing theme and Boomer Economy Index, that population dynamics are expected to drive a spending shift that favors the demand for healthcare. As we […]

As the current bull market is poised to make history, the Tematica Investing Select List continues to deliver above market returns. Ahead of the post Labor Day race to the end of 2018, we’re pruning shares of Paccar, Rockwell Automation and GSV Capital and scaling into shares of Applied Materials and Netflix at current levels.

We saw many confirming data points for Amazon, Costco Wholesale, Habit Restaurant and McCormick & Co. shares in the July Retail Sales report as well as in Walmart’s stellar July quarter results.

  They say too much information is a dangerous thing, but in the case of consumers, access to information is helping reshape how they are living their lives: According to a recent survey from Label Insight, 39% of U.S. consumers say they would switch from the brands they currently buy to others that provide clearer, […]

As we hit the midpoint of the current quarter, we acknowledge our quarter to date winners as well as those that are lagging the market. We also scale deeper into Dycom shares, examine the impact our Middle-Class Squeeze investing theme is having on the housing market and share a Digital Lifestyle company that could be the next Blue Apron.

When it comes to the market that is diabetes — it affects some 30 million Americans, more than 9% of the population, according to the CDC and rates of those diagnosed with diabetes rises with age, to 25% of those 65 and older — we are seeing a number of new products and services that […]

After last night’s close GSV Capital (GSVC) reported June quarter results — while the financial media headlines reported a mixed quarter in terms of revenue and the bottom line — our view is the quarter was a solid one characterized by the continued increase in its net asset value per share.

With Farmland Partners slashing its 3Q 2018 dividend by 75% and dim prospects for the following dividend payment, we are exiting FPI shares as the investment thesis has changed considerably.

Last night’s July sales report from Costco confirms our thesis as it continues to take consumer wallet share and open additional warehouses that will drive high margin membership fee income.

Much the way a car would be challenging to drive if there were no roads or a radio would only play static if there were no radio stations, there would be no Digital Lifestyle to live if the underlying high-speed data networks, increasing computing power, and falling storage costs that make it possible didn’t exist, which is where our new theme, Digital Infrastructure, comes into play.

Our focus on Disney remains the coming transformative events that are the acquisition of Fox’s TV and movie assets, and the 2019 launch of its Disney streaming service. The former doubles down on the existing content strategy, while the latter could lead to a change in how investors value Disney shares. To me, that is a far greater opportunity than the modest June quarter miss on the top and bottom line.

In this week’s issue, we book a tasty win as we trim back our position in Habit Restaurant (HABT) and share some updates on Costco Wholesale and United Parcel Service.

In Japan, the number of elderly people aged 65 or older accounts for roughly 27%  of the country’s 127.1 million population and by 2050 it’s expected to reach 40%. This data from World Population Review suggests Japan is the oldest country in terms of aged population and will remain so. For us here at Tematica, it […]

We’ve seen a number of interface technologies over since the dawn of the PC age, but until now and in one way or another they have all hinged on the screen. No matter how big or how small, consumers have been able to see what they have been looking for or working on, but with […]

Amazon’s recent PillPack acquisition and surging health and beauty sales should have not only have traditional pharmacies and beauty retailers concerned but really every retailer should be asking themselves just how “Amazon-proof” is their business model?

It’s a big issue this week as we once again boost our Apple price target, talk on the shifting stock market dynamic and provide updates on Nokia, AXT, and Habit Restaurant as we also explain why we remain bullish on Amazon and Costco shares.

One of the hot topics on the street today is who will emerge as the victor when it comes to the electric vehicle. Our question is if there is no single winner in the auto segment today, why does there need to be one when it comes to electric vehicles and if that’s the case which strategy is best for investing in this tailwind?

Over the last few days, we’ve had quarterly results from two companies that are riding tailwinds associated with our Digital Lifestyle investment theme – Facebook (FB) and Amazon (AMZN). The report from each company, however, and their reception from investors couldn’t have been more different. 

  Grubhub was one of the first companies with its mobile and online ordering platforms to disrupt how we order food takeout and delivery. The company continues to expand its restaurant offering, which now spans more than 80,000 local restaurants in  1,600 cities under its Grubhub, Seamless, and Eat24 applications. With sales up 50% in […]

We’ve seen the subscription business model come back into vogue changing the way people buy meals, cosmetics, and clothing. Now we’re seeing it expand into the automotive market, which is bound to impact the auto dealer business model. Then again, as autonomous vehicles come of age in the next several years, and ride-hailing services become […]

Established businesses tend to focus on improvements to their existing products and services, making iterative changes and adjustments along the way, which allows them to maintain their pole position in their particular category, without rocking the boat too much, safe and steady. Disruptive Innovators on the other hand not only look to rock the boat but often tip it over and completely change the lake. 

This week we are in the throes of an earnings season and trade meetings that could shape the market outlook for stocks in the back half of 2018. Those same drivers will have the market trade day-to-day in the very near-term. We discuss that as well as share updates on Dycom (DY), Nokia (NOK), AXT Inc. (AXTI), Farmland Partners (FPI), Paccar (PCAR) and United Parcel Service (UPS).

We’re also looking for confirming data points for our investment themes, especially those that are poised to disrupt existing business models. In the case of 5G mobile technology, one of the meaningful questions is when we will see commercial deployments of both 5G networks and 5G devices. After all, a 5G network is pretty hard […]

  There is only so much one can learn from a two-dimensional book, and that is prompting the use of holograms, one of the technologies inside our Disruptive Technologies investing theme, in educational settings. Given the many systems and their inner workings inside the human body, holograms are a natural fit with medicine, and in […]

As the dust settles on Prime Day 2018, Amazon (AMZN) shares some positive data points that bode well for our United Parcel Service (UPS) shares, while Ericsson offers reaffirming comments on 5G that solidify our view on Dycom (DY), AXT (AXTI) and Nokia (NOK) shares.

As we get ready to drink from the earnings fire hose later this week, we share our thoughts not only the overall market but also on Amazon’s 2018 Prime Day, Netflix 2Q 2018 earnings report, what happened with Farmland Partners last week and how the June Retail Sales Report was a positive for our Habit Restaurant and Costco Wholesale shares.

We’ve recently recasted our Middle Class Squeeze and New Middle Class investing themes, which entailed splitting a few themes apart and reconstituting them to make them clearer and more focused. Today, we’re combining Connected Society, Content is King and Cashless Consumption to form our Digital Lifestyle investing theme, which reflects consumers’ existing and increasingly digital footprint and making a key addition to the Tematica Investing Select List along the way.

As part of constantly revisiting and testing our investing themes, from time to time we will make changes and enhancement to them. As part of that ongoing effort, we recently re-cast part of our Rise & Fall of the Middle Class investing theme. That move left Rise of the New Middle Class, which we’ve shortened to the New Middle Class and focuses on areas around the world, notably China and India, but other emerging markets as well where rising disposable incomes are driving demand for a host of products and services.

The growing number of headwinds from trade and tariffs to slowing growth, higher interest rates and the rebound in the dollar could result in more conservative guidance than the market is expecting. What could it mean if that expected EPS growth in the second half? Well, you’ll just have to listen to the episode to find out.

In this week’s Tematica Investing issue, we recap the 2Q 2018 performance and share why we think the upcoming earnings season is likely to lead to a major reset of earnings expectations vs. levels expected back in January. The reason? Trade, tariffs and uncertainty.

One of the industries that has both adapted to and felt the pain of our Digital Lifestyle investing theme is the music industry, something near and dear to the hearts and souls of team Tematica. Over the decades, we’ve seen the migration from vinyl albums to 8-track to cassettes to CDs followed by the abiltiy […]

When we look at any of our investment themes, we are mindful of confirming data points as well as ones that challenge their base assumptions. That is especially true with our Disruptive Technologies and Business Models investing theme. While we recognize that disruption may not play out as expected and may take hold in other […]

This week Amazon finally did what it was long rumored to do — enter the pharmacy space with its acquisition of PillPack, an online pharmacy that lets customers buy medications in pre-made doses. From my perch, I see the long expected move by Amazon into the pharmacy space as putting pressure on the prescription drug business, especially for […]

Apple CEO Tim Cook has been vocal about growing the company’s Services business as way to not only diversify its revenue stream, but in my view also make its iOS and other devices even stickier with consumers. As we have seen before Content is King is a key driver in our Digital Lifestyle investing them […]

We continue to see signals for the adoption of autonomous vehicles that will disrupt existing business models, which in our view raises more questions about not only retail store fronts, but those companies that invest in commercial real estate. We’ve long thought the brick & mortar pain would expand to include grocery and banks, and […]

This week we moved from signs that tariffs and inflation would play a role in the upcoming earnings season to investors recognizing that is the likely reality following reports from Harley Davidson and Universal Stainless & Alloy Products. With earnings expectations for the S&P 500 yet to factor in this reality, we could be in for a bumpy 2Q 2018 earnings season as expectations for the second half of 2018 get rejiggered. We’re also doing some Select List pruning, cutting GLW, LYTS and OLED shares in the process.

One of the problems with US investors is they tend not to look much past thier shores for investment opportunities or confirming data points. Here at Tematica, we recognize our investment themes are global in nature, and that causes us to take a more wholistic perspective. The US is not the only country battling truck […]

The dust has barely settled on the legal ruling that is paving the way for AT&T (T) to combine with Time Warner (TWX), and we are alread hearing of new products and services to stem from this combination. No surprise as we are seeing a blurring between mobile networks and devices, social media and content […]

From time to time we recast and sometimes streamline our investing themes to ensure they remain both relevant and relatable. This week we are combining our Cash-strap Consumer theme with the Fall in our Rise & Fall of the Middle Class to form the Middle Class Squeeze investing theme.

With trade and tariffs being the market words of the week, we review the positioning and exposure for that on the Tematica Investing Select List. We’re cutting MGM Resorts (MGM) from the Select List, and are recasting our Rise & Fall of the Middle Class theme into two – the New Middle Class and the Middle Class Squeeze.