The Tematica take on Fed hikes, balance sheet contraction and other works of creative fiction

The Tematica take on Fed hikes, balance sheet contraction and other works of creative fiction

The market reaction to the FOMC statement is that it was more hawkish than what had already been priced in. While the market was priced at a 50/50 chance for a rate hike before the end of the year, the now infamous dot-plot shows that 12 of the 16 members expect one more hike this year, with one expecting two.

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Calm Before the Storm?

Calm Before the Storm?

While D.C. is full of fireworks over health care and Russians, the Treasury is scrambling to pay the bills, yet the markets are peacefully awash in Xanax. The spread between the 6-month and 3-month Treasury bills is now pricing in a potential technical default, but given that the rest of the Treasury market looks unaffected, […]

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More Margin Pressure Ahead

More Margin Pressure Ahead

The era of low-to-zero interest rates on top of struggling household income levels led to the proliferation of zero-rate financing on everything from cars to hot tubs to luggage and electronics. With the Federal Reserve raising rates amidst less than robust retail sales, rising credit card balances and weak income growth, retailers will be pressured to […]

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Cocktail Investing Ep 9 – So Janet Yellen & the Fed are Data Dependent You Say?…Is the Stock Market Listening to the Hard Data?…Amazon’s Next Target – Liquor Stores and more Thematic Signals

Cocktail Investing Ep 9 – So Janet Yellen & the Fed are Data Dependent You Say?…Is the Stock Market Listening to the Hard Data?…Amazon’s Next Target – Liquor Stores and more Thematic Signals

It was quite a week that started off with winter storm Stella, a Fed interest rate increase and finished up with St. Patrick’s Day. Your resident mixologists, Chris Versace and Lenore Hawkins, were busy sharing their thoughts on all of that as well as the February Retail Sales report this week and break it all down for you on this episode of Cocktail Investing.

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Consumers Spend More in December, But Ouch Those Revolving Debt Levels Sure Could Hurt

Consumers Spend More in December, But Ouch Those Revolving Debt Levels Sure Could Hurt

This morning the US Bureau of Economic Analysis published its take on Personal Income & Spending for December. We’re rather fond of this monthly report given the data contained within and the implications for several of our investment themes, including Cash-strapped Consumers as well as Affordable Luxury and the Rise & Fall of the Middle […]

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Talking Fed Rate Hike with Maria Bartiromo

Talking Fed Rate Hike with Maria Bartiromo

With the Fed rate hike decision looming, on December 15th I had the great pleasure of being on Mornings with Maria (Bartiromo) for the entire three hours of her show. She is one incredibly talented and elegant woman, not to mention my new level of respect for being able to sit on set for three hours […]

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Damn It Janet, Yellen isn't tellin'

Damn It Janet, Yellen isn't tellin'

Last week Janet (I’m not tellin’) Yellen gave her annual two-day Congressional testimony, making it clear during Tuesday’s discussion that she wants to move away from the concept that Fed guidance is a pledge and appears to still prefer more tortoise than hare policy moves, assuring the markets that while the Fed will remove the […]

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Bye Bye Bonds?

Bye Bye Bonds?

While US equity markets enjoyed a booming year in 2013, it was the first negative year since 1999 for the US Bond market. The chart below shows the Barclary’s US Aggregate Bond Index’s annual returns since its inception in 1977. Bond yields are currently near their historical lows. The Fed, currently the single largest buyer […]

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