WEEKLY ISSUE: Is Inflation Rearing Its Ugly Head or Not?

WEEKLY ISSUE: Is Inflation Rearing Its Ugly Head or Not?

Earlier this morning we received the January Consumer Price Index (CPI), one of the closely watched measures of that now dirty word – inflation. As a quick reminder, the market swings over the last two weeks were ignited by the headline wage data in the January Employment Report, as well as other signs, such as rising freight costs. This topic of resetting inflation expectations and what it may mean for the Fed and interest rates has been a topic of conversation amongst all investors this week.

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Inflation Rising While Wages Are Falling

Inflation Rising While Wages Are Falling

Inflation rising while hourly earnings have fallen in 5 of the past 6 months. The Fed will find it is under further pressure to hike and/or taper, which applies the brakes to any economic acceleration from tax cuts and more government spending.

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Our Scarce Resource theme once again drives food inflation 

Aside from uncovering data points that support our thematic perspective, we also like to connect the dots between our themes as well, given the potential for one theme to be a catalyst for the other. We’ve seen that in the past with droughts — a recurring aspect of our Scarce Resource theme  — and we […]

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Home No So Sweet Home

Home No So Sweet Home

Many consumers still have mortgage/home ownership PTSD after the unprecedented pain felt during the financial crisis. The decades of rising rates of homeownership, induced in large part by federal policies and legislation, has mostly been wiped out. This data illustrates how the generations most affected by the financial crisis have shifted to a more asset-light lifestyle. This shift is a tailwind to those companies providing goods and/or services consistent the sharing economy.

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Inflation and Republican Consensus on ACA go MIA

Inflation and Republican Consensus on ACA go MIA

This morning the U.S. Import and Export price data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics continued the trend of minimal inflation. U.S. Import Prices fell for the second consecutive month in June, down 0.2 percent, driven in large part by falling fuel prices. Prices fell 0.1 percent in May. Import prices peaked in February at […]

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Economic Data Continues to Paint Peaking Picture

Economic Data Continues to Paint Peaking Picture

This view never gets old.While this was a shortened week with the Memorial Day holiday, it was certainly packed with economic data. Yours truly fell a bit behind coupled with the short week and another one of my trips from Southern California back to my other home base in Italy, so this is a longer […]

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I’m all about that base when it comes to inflation

I’m all about that base when it comes to inflation

Last week on our Cocktail Investing podcast, Chris and I spoke about how I’m not so much on board with the rising inflation camp because of the base effect, (Ok, so not quite bass, but close) which has become the phrase of the week in some circles. So what am I looking at that all those who […]

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Data or Divination?

Data or Divination?

You’ve probably already learned that on Wednesday the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee increased its Fed Funds rate to 0.75 – 1.0 percent. The markets were concerned that we would hear a much more hawkish tone from the Fed, which would have implied a possibly faster pace of rate hikes. Chair Janet Yellen’s prepared speech coupled […]

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Tematica’s Take on the February Jobs Report, and What It Means for the Fed and Stocks

Tematica’s Take on the February Jobs Report, and What It Means for the Fed and Stocks

The February Jobs Report showed job creation and wage growth moving in the right direction, and clears the way for the Fed to boost rates next week at its next FOMC meeting.

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