Tax Reform and the Markets
What does it mean if we tax reform but it adds to the ballooning national debt? What if we don’t, how will the markets react?
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Dow on Track for Longest Losing Streak Since 2011 as Trump Trade Stalls
The markets have had quite the run-up based on the assumption that this time things are different with Trump in the White House, but sky-high valuations make sense and economic realities, such as an aging population, are no anchor.
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Reaganomics v Trumponomics
While many of the policies suggested by the Trump administration would likely have a stimulative effect, they must be assessed within the context of today’s economic reality.
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Mornings with Maria
On Friday October 21st I was on set with Maria Bartiromo, Kat Timpf and Dagen McDowell with a variety of guests. Here are a few clips from those three hours on set… with only one bathroom break… starting at 6am… and a lot of coffee…know my pain. We spoke with JMP Securities President Mark Lehmann on […]
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Obama Claims Country Better Off Today?
Obama claims the country is better off? Uh, what? Last week President Obama told a small group of wealthy donors that by almost every metric, the U.S. is significantly better off under his leadership than under Bush’s. Oh dear God this is just getting embarrassing! Can we please have a little reality check here? The […]
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What Deleveraging?
What deleveraging? China, the nation that helped bull the global economy out of the last financial crisis, is slowing markedly. China is also facing a debt problem. From 2002 to 2008, China’s total debt/GDP ratio was fairly stable and remained below 150%, but is now about 250%. It is possible that China’s debt issues may […]
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Real vs Financial Economy: Thoughts from Monte Carlo
Last week I had the great honor of being invited to speak at the XIIth Annual International CIFA Forum, (the Convention of Independent Financial Advisors which is in special consultative status with the United Nations) in Monte Carlo. Who knows how I got invited back after speaking there last year, but when someone asks me […]
read more »An Evening with Nassim Taleb
I have the great fortune of traveling extensively for work and was recently lucky enough to be able to spend an evening with Nassim Taleb, sponsored by RBS (Royal Bank of Scotland) in Milan, Italy. His discussion focused on his most recent book, Antifragile, which I highly recommend, but he’s probably most famous for his […]
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Interest Rates and National Debt
The Federal Reserve has been under considerable pressure to provide details for just how it will control all the excess liquidity that it has created through quantitative easing. The Fed’s balance sheet, which can roughly be thought of as a proxy for the potential money supply, is almost 2.4 times the size it was in […]
read more »Federal Reserve and National Debt
It took the federal government around 200 years to accumulate a trillion dollars in debt. Within the following decade it tripled that number, then doubled it again in just twelve years, and doubled it again in another 8 years. Overall the national debt has increased sixteen-fold in just 30 years. Incidentally, this period coincides with […]
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