$1.5 trillion student loan debt, $1.1 trillion auto loan debt and ~$1 trillion in credit card debt -what could go wrong?

$1.5 trillion student loan debt, $1.1 trillion auto loan debt and ~$1 trillion in credit card debt -what could go wrong?

It’s that time again, an update on the degree of consumer borrowing as tallied by Federal Reserve data. For those of us that have been watching other consumer spending, debt and savings metrics, the results come  as little surprise and serve to confirm not only our Cash-strapped or Middle-Class Squeeze investing theme. The data also […]

read more »
Fed Interest Rate Face-Off

Fed Interest Rate Face-Off

While the current administration has been looking to keep this economic cycle going much longer and even accelerating, the Federal Reserve is concerned that the cycle may be getting overextended and overheated, putting the central bank in a tough spot as it attempts to apply some interest rate brakes while fiscal policy lays on the accelerator.

read more »
Debt, Debt and More Debt

Debt, Debt and More Debt

  While U.S. Consumer credit increased less than expected in January, we are concerned with what we are seeing in consumer loans and debt in general across the world. Auto Loans With our Cash-Strapped Consumer investing theme, the average amount financed and the duration of new auto loans continues to rise – same car, bigger […]

read more »
Inflation Rising While Wages Are Falling

Inflation Rising While Wages Are Falling

Inflation rising while hourly earnings have fallen in 5 of the past 6 months. The Fed will find it is under further pressure to hike and/or taper, which applies the brakes to any economic acceleration from tax cuts and more government spending.

read more »
The Tematica take on Fed hikes, balance sheet contraction and other works of creative fiction

The Tematica take on Fed hikes, balance sheet contraction and other works of creative fiction

The market reaction to the FOMC statement is that it was more hawkish than what had already been priced in. While the market was priced at a 50/50 chance for a rate hike before the end of the year, the now infamous dot-plot shows that 12 of the 16 members expect one more hike this year, with one expecting two.

read more »
Inflation waning while bonds dispute moves in stocks

Inflation waning while bonds dispute moves in stocks

Wednesday the Federal Reserve, as expected, raised rates, but even more importantly they release an outline of their plans to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet, which you can read here. We must also note that raising rates in a period of falling bond yields and where the 3-month change in core CPI is collapsing is […]

read more »
Economic Data Continues to Paint Peaking Picture

Economic Data Continues to Paint Peaking Picture

This view never gets old.While this was a shortened week with the Memorial Day holiday, it was certainly packed with economic data. Yours truly fell a bit behind coupled with the short week and another one of my trips from Southern California back to my other home base in Italy, so this is a longer […]

read more »