Elle’s Economy

2015-03-Faces-BannerTematica Chief Macro Strategist Lenore Hawkins provides regular insights and musings into today’s markets, economics and politics, while fighting for liberty with great wine & music, scores of stilettos and an excessive love of dogs

 

 


Cocktail Investing Ep. 17: Trump Tax Plan, 1Q17 Earnings Gauntlet, Pepsi vs. Coke
27 Apr

Cocktail Investing Ep. 17: Trump Tax Plan, 1Q17 Earnings Gauntlet, Pepsi vs. Coke

In this week’s episode of the Cocktail Investing Podcast, Tematica’s resident mixologists, Lenore Hawkins and Chris Versace, once again dig through all the earnings noise, economic data and latest policy plans spinning out of Washington to distill it down into clear investing signals. As usual, there is a helpful amount of fun and good humor along the way as they discuss new confirming signs the economy slowed in 1Q 2017 and is starting the current quarter off on rather soft footing.

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Markets Narrowing as Trump Trade Fades
18 Apr

Markets Narrowing as Trump Trade Fades

We are seeing the beginnings of de-risking as for the first time since the election as the S&P 500 has broken below its 50-day trendline, but is still just 3 percent shy of its all-time high, so let's not get overly carried away here. Volatility, in the form of the CBOE's volatility index (VIX), rose [...]read more »
Market Narrative Makes for Record Gap between Hope and Reality
04 Apr

Market Narrative Makes for Record Gap between Hope and Reality

There is just no escaping the reality that markets are driven by narratives and people are highly trainable - just ask Dr. Ivan Pavlov. For years investors have been trained to believe that markets cannot go down because central bankers will step in and do something that will prop them back up. This has essentially [...]read more »
Markets and auto sales in reverse
03 Apr

Markets and auto sales in reverse

Last week the S&P 500 lost 1.4 percent, the largest weekly loss since the week before the election. No wonder investors pulled $9.1 billion net out of mutual funds, resulting in the steepest weekly redemption rate since last June’s Brexit freak-out. This move reverses about 10 percent of the some $90 billion of inflows since […]

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Consumer Spending – it isn’t all about Confidence
30 Mar

Consumer Spending – it isn’t all about Confidence

With roughly 70 percent of GDP attributed to consumer spending, the market should be pretty excited over how earlier this week Consumer Confidence for March blew away expectations. The catch is that spending is simply a function of income and credit, not confidence. If you want to spend more, you must either earn more or borrow more – pretty simple. So with Consumer Confidence at all time highs, we take a look at this other side of the question . . .

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Auto Loans and Household Income – Time for a Reality Check!
28 Mar

Auto Loans and Household Income – Time for a Reality Check!

In general, I tend to be a very positive person. I’m decidedly in the glass-is-half-full camp and even though no one would accuse of me being a morning person, I love watching the sunrise, large cup of joe in hand of course, with a smile on my face as I contemplate what mischief I may […]

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Dow on Track for Longest Losing Streak Since 2011 as Trump Trade Stalls
27 Mar

Dow on Track for Longest Losing Streak Since 2011 as Trump Trade Stalls

The markets have had quite the run-up based on the assumption that this time things are different with Trump in the White House, but sky-high valuations make sense and economic realities, such as an aging population, are no anchor.

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More Margin Pressure Ahead
23 Mar

More Margin Pressure Ahead

The era of low-to-zero interest rates on top of struggling household income levels led to the proliferation of zero-rate financing on everything from cars to hot tubs to luggage and electronics. With the Federal Reserve raising rates amidst less than robust retail sales, rising credit card balances and weak income growth, retailers will be pressured to […]

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