Elle’s Economy

2015-03-Faces-BannerTematica Chief Macro Strategist Lenore Hawkins provides regular insights and musings into today’s markets, economics and politics, while fighting for liberty with great wine & music, scores of stilettos and an excessive love of dogs

 

 


More Margin Pressure Ahead
23 Mar

More Margin Pressure Ahead

The era of low-to-zero interest rates on top of struggling household income levels led to the proliferation of zero-rate financing on everything from cars to hot tubs to luggage and electronics. With the Federal Reserve raising rates amidst less than robust retail sales, rising credit card balances and weak income growth, retailers will be pressured to […]

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Data or Divination?
16 Mar

Data or Divination?

You’ve probably already learned that on Wednesday the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee increased its Fed Funds rate to 0.75 – 1.0 percent. The markets were concerned that we would hear a much more hawkish tone from the Fed, which would have implied a possibly faster pace of rate hikes. Chair Janet Yellen’s prepared speech coupled […]

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Trump on accelerator while Fed tapping the breaks
13 Mar

Trump on accelerator while Fed tapping the breaks

While the headlines have been dominated by talk of whether or not President Trump can get Congress to work with him and to just what extent the Republicans will unite behind him, the bigger but much less obvious battle is between the White House and the Fed. While the Trump administration is talking all about […]

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Tematica’s Take on the February Jobs Report, and What It Means for the Fed and Stocks
10 Mar

Tematica’s Take on the February Jobs Report, and What It Means for the Fed and Stocks

The February Jobs Report showed job creation and wage growth moving in the right direction, and clears the way for the Fed to boost rates next week at its next FOMC meeting.

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Want Growth? Hello Immigrant!
09 Mar

Want Growth? Hello Immigrant!

One of our investing themes here at Tematica is the Aging of the Population. The first baby boomers are turning seventy this year, with another 1.5 million joining the 70+ crowd every year for the next 15 years. That means that we will be seeing record numbers of workers leaving the labor pool, which has a […]

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Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow forecast for Q1 drops to 1.3 percent
07 Mar

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow forecast for Q1 drops to 1.3 percent

While the headlines have been all about the Republicans proposed replacement for the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare), the Atlanta Fed issued their latest forecast for first quarter GDP, which has been lowered yet again and is now sitting near stall speed at 1.3 percent.   The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally […]

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Bond market dancing to a different tune than equities
06 Mar

Bond market dancing to a different tune than equities

Whenever we see trends in the market we immediately look for confirming data points. With the impressive rise in equity markets since the election, we look at the bond market to see if there is agreement on all this bullishness. There isn’t. “The bond market is taking a totally different view from the equity market. […]

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