Category Archives: Elle’s Economy

2015-03-Faces-BannerTematica Chief Macro Strategist Lenore Hawkins provides regular insights and musings into today’s markets, economics and politics, while fighting for liberty with great wine & music, scores of stilettos and an excessive love of dogs

 

 


Pain Points in Investing – Social Security Number as a case study

Pain Points in Investing – Social Security Number as a case study

Tematica’s investing strategy focuses not only on those long-term forces that generate formidable tailwinds or headwinds but also on major pain points, as solutions can generate serious value to entrepreneurs and investors alike. The problem of Social Security numbers for definitive identification is one such pain point.

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WEEKLY WRAP: October Singing to the Same Tune We’ve Been Boogying To All Year Long

WEEKLY WRAP: October Singing to the Same Tune We’ve Been Boogying To All Year Long

We continue to have a market priced at levels that are in the upper atmosphere of historical norms in an economy that continues to be “meh,” with income levels rising about as fast as a tortoise through molasses. We know full well that stock prices can get even headier from here, but beware of “reversion to the mean” for volatility and the reality of upside potential versus downside risk from such heights.

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WEEKLY WRAP: Pricey Stocks are Likely to Get Even More Expensive

WEEKLY WRAP: Pricey Stocks are Likely to Get Even More Expensive

The economy is a mixed bag right now, with manufacturing showing some strength, (which has been helped by a weak dollar trend that may be reversing) and the weakness in the consumer side is what we’d expect at this late stage in the business cycle. That said, the market fundamentals such as breadth, as well as index and sector movement trends show no signs of an imminent market pullback. These pricey stocks are likely to get even more expensive.

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Surprises From Market Breadth with Record Margin Debt

Surprises From Market Breadth with Record Margin Debt

As we discussed earlier, heading into the third quarter earnings season, we have above average level of positive guidance in terms of both top line sales and earnings as well as lower-than-average negative earnings guidance. We  pointed out yesterday, however, that an uncomfortable portion of that guidance is driven by gains from a weak dollar […]

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Consumer Confidence & LEI’s Flash Warning

Consumer Confidence & LEI’s Flash Warning

Consumer Confidence for September declined a bit more than expected, falling to 119.8 from 120.4, versus expectations for a decline to 120. While that doesn’t sound all that meaningful as it is still well above the long-term average of 93.9, we see something occurring beneath the headlines that warrants further attention and is particularly concerning […]

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Another Week of the Market Brushing Off Uncertainty Amid Political Turbulence and Less Than Rosy Data

Another Week of the Market Brushing Off Uncertainty Amid Political Turbulence and Less Than Rosy Data

While the president and “Rocket Man” trade barbs, Iranian President Said stated that Iran would continue with its missile program in defiance of U.S. sanctions, unveiling its latest long-rage ballistic missile at a parade in Tehran. In response, the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) briefly rose all the way to the veritable nosebleed territory of nearly 10.20 during Friday’s trading.

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The Tematica take on Fed hikes, balance sheet contraction and other works of creative fiction

The Tematica take on Fed hikes, balance sheet contraction and other works of creative fiction

The market reaction to the FOMC statement is that it was more hawkish than what had already been priced in. While the market was priced at a 50/50 chance for a rate hike before the end of the year, the now infamous dot-plot shows that 12 of the 16 members expect one more hike this year, with one expecting two.

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