Category Archives: Monday Morning Kickoff

To help investors get ready for the trading days ahead, the Monday Morning Kickoff traces the key happenings of the previous week and looks ahead to the coming economic and earnings calendars for the new week.


Earnings Rubber Hits the Road This Week

Earnings Rubber Hits the Road This Week

We are entering the first week where we have a meaningful number of 3Q 2017 corporate earnings. While we will have additional September economic data that we’ll use to weave together our 2017 GDP tapestry and assess the Fed’s likelihood of boosting rates in December following its dovish September meeting minutes, corporate earnings will be the focus.

We’ve already seen several companies report disappointing results due to the September hurricanes. Of course, even where we have seen meaningful EPS beats relative to expectations, we’ve seen concerning signs in the report internals that have weighed share prices. It’s against that backdrop that we look ahead to what’s on tap this week . . .

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MONDAY MORNING KICKOFF: Has The Fed Found the Data It Has Been Looking For To Justify A December Rate Hike?

MONDAY MORNING KICKOFF: Has The Fed Found the Data It Has Been Looking For To Justify A December Rate Hike?

“Inflationistas” are harping on the surge in Prices component of the September ISM Manufacturing Report. However, that month over month jump was likely due impact of the hurricane trifecta that hit during September, and is more likely than not going to be transitory in nature. That said, could this be the data the Fed has been looking for to justify its expected December rate hike?

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MONDAY MORNING KICKOFF: Have analysts underestimated the hurricane-related disruption?

MONDAY MORNING KICKOFF: Have analysts underestimated the hurricane-related disruption?

In a few weeks, we’ll start the time-honored tradition of corporate earnings season, but as we begin October it means we will first face the usual data deluge for the prior month. In this case, that data will shed a fuller picture of the economic impact from the recent trifecta of hurricanes last month. Economists estimate the ensuing disruption could cut as much as six-tenths of a percentage point from GDP growth in 3Q 2017. The coming weeks will give us a better sense of how deep that hurricane-related cut to GDP really is as we get a fuller picture of how the economy fared in September.

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MONDAY MORNING KICKOFF: The Economic Fallout from Hurricanes Harvey & Irma

MONDAY MORNING KICKOFF: The Economic Fallout from Hurricanes Harvey & Irma

Following a somewhat tension-filled weekend given North Korea’s latest missile launch, Friday’s London terror attack and yet another hurricane set to travel up the Atlantic, we’re once again highlighting the items that investors should focus their attention on for the week ahead, and the fallout from Hurricane’s Harvey and Irma will start appearing in things like the Home Sales data, Fed Rate plans and corporate earnings.

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WEEKLY WRAP: What Could Have Been a Pepto-Bismol Guzzler, Ended Up Being a Rather Calm Week

WEEKLY WRAP: What Could Have Been a Pepto-Bismol Guzzler, Ended Up Being a Rather Calm Week

September so far has been relatively calm, despite Mother Nature and that nut in North Korea testing our intestinal fortitude. While equity valuations hitting historically high levels in the face of a ho-hum economy are reasonably worrisome, market dynamics aren’t giving us much in the way of imminent warning signals.

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Something more than Harvey and Irma have Goldman Sach’s CEO “unnerved” about the current stock market?

Something more than Harvey and Irma have Goldman Sach’s CEO “unnerved” about the current stock market?

Goldman Sachs CEO shares his view the current stock market is unnerving, and we explain why he probably things that.

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As a flurry of activity hits this week, all eyes will still be on Apple

As a flurry of activity hits this week, all eyes will still be on Apple

As we look back at the events and data that unfolded last week, what we come away with is the continued unfolding of evidence that we are facing a slower than previously thought economy, with political uncertainty running at an all-time high, all as we head into September, one of the most tumultuous months for stocks. As we’ve long suspected, earnings expectations for the second half of the year are coming down, and in our view, once investors and businesses are back to work after the Labor Day holiday, upcoming investor conferences will set the tone of the market for the coming months.

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Tax Reform, Debt Ceiling, Government Shut Down & Amazon’s Latest Move

Tax Reform, Debt Ceiling, Government Shut Down & Amazon’s Latest Move

As we look back at the events and data that unfolded last week, what we come away with is the continued unfolding of evidence that we are facing a slower than previously thought economy, with political uncertainty running at an all-time high, all as we head into September, one of the most tumultuous months for stocks. As we’ve long suspected, earnings expectations for the second half of the year are coming down, and in our view, once investors and businesses are back to work after the Labor Day holiday, upcoming investor conferences will set the tone of the market for the coming months.

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