Category Archives: Monday Morning Kickoff

To help investors get ready for the trading days ahead, the Monday Morning Kickoff traces the key happenings of the previous week and looks ahead to the coming economic and earnings calendars for the new week.


Monday Morning Kickoff: A Market Priced to Perfection

Monday Morning Kickoff: A Market Priced to Perfection

With the market trading at 20x 2017 earnings expectations, we would call it “priced to perfection”, leaving very little room for error. A modest miss of an earnings report relative to expectations could hit a market that has only modest levels of institutional investor cash sitting on the sidelines. As always, we keep one eye on upside to be had, with the other assessing potential downside risks.

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A Short Burst of Corporate Earnings Reports on Tap Before the Thanksgiving Feast

A Short Burst of Corporate Earnings Reports on Tap Before the Thanksgiving Feast

As the market has ceded ground during the first half of November, there are several factors behind the market’s move lower. In this week’s Monday Morning Kickoff, we breakdown what you need to know, including disappointing developments at Dow member General Electric (GE), growing concern over the market’s valuation, and questions surrounding tax reform even after the House passed its tax reform bill. The question going forward will be, with so little cash sitting on the sidelines, who will be able to help support the market should tax reform hit something stronger than a speed bump?

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There Are Things Underfoot In the Market That Could Cause Some Scares

There Are Things Underfoot In the Market That Could Cause Some Scares

In keeping with our Connected Society and Content is King investing themes, we would say the market is resembling Netflix’s Stranger Things and its sequel – even though the market has been moving higher, there are things underfoot that could cause some scares and shouts like we saw last week when the market had its worst performance since August. With tax reform stalling and likely pushed out well into 2018, we’re scratching our heads to find the catalyst that will drive the market even higher from current levels.

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As We Hit the Home Stretch, Corporate Earnings Scorecard is Painting a Solid Picture

As We Hit the Home Stretch, Corporate Earnings Scorecard is Painting a Solid Picture

In this week’s Monday Morning Kickoff, we take a look at where we stand now that over 400 of the S&P 500 companies have reported earnings for 3Q2017. Of course, we have another 100 S&P companies to go and more than 960 companies reporting this week, so the picture can change, but we breakdown the earnings reports that will have our interest in the days ahead and why.

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Market Continues to Shake off Any Bad News, Melts Higher and Higher

Market Continues to Shake off Any Bad News, Melts Higher and Higher

We’ve seen a steady melt up in the market over the last several weeks, stretching its valuation along the way as investors digested prospects for the economy, rebounds in the dollar and oil prices, 3Q 2107 earnings, tax reform, and the latest geopolitical news. Even last week’s red flags about Apple and Nike weren’t enough to slow things down as the market reached yet another record high. What, if anything, will finally cool things off?

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Earnings Rubber Hits the Road This Week

Earnings Rubber Hits the Road This Week

We are entering the first week where we have a meaningful number of 3Q 2017 corporate earnings. While we will have additional September economic data that we’ll use to weave together our 2017 GDP tapestry and assess the Fed’s likelihood of boosting rates in December following its dovish September meeting minutes, corporate earnings will be the focus.

We’ve already seen several companies report disappointing results due to the September hurricanes. Of course, even where we have seen meaningful EPS beats relative to expectations, we’ve seen concerning signs in the report internals that have weighed share prices. It’s against that backdrop that we look ahead to what’s on tap this week . . .

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MONDAY MORNING KICKOFF: Has The Fed Found the Data It Has Been Looking For To Justify A December Rate Hike?

MONDAY MORNING KICKOFF: Has The Fed Found the Data It Has Been Looking For To Justify A December Rate Hike?

“Inflationistas” are harping on the surge in Prices component of the September ISM Manufacturing Report. However, that month over month jump was likely due impact of the hurricane trifecta that hit during September, and is more likely than not going to be transitory in nature. That said, could this be the data the Fed has been looking for to justify its expected December rate hike?

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MONDAY MORNING KICKOFF: Have analysts underestimated the hurricane-related disruption?

MONDAY MORNING KICKOFF: Have analysts underestimated the hurricane-related disruption?

In a few weeks, we’ll start the time-honored tradition of corporate earnings season, but as we begin October it means we will first face the usual data deluge for the prior month. In this case, that data will shed a fuller picture of the economic impact from the recent trifecta of hurricanes last month. Economists estimate the ensuing disruption could cut as much as six-tenths of a percentage point from GDP growth in 3Q 2017. The coming weeks will give us a better sense of how deep that hurricane-related cut to GDP really is as we get a fuller picture of how the economy fared in September.

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