Category Archives: Monday Morning Kickoff

To help investors get ready for the trading days ahead, the Monday Morning Kickoff traces the key happenings of the previous week and looks ahead to the coming economic and earnings calendars for the new week.


What’s Next for the Markets After Last Week’s Turmoil?

What’s Next for the Markets After Last Week’s Turmoil?

The domestic stock market dropped into correction territory last week as investors reset expectations to account for a combination of issues, which include a firming economy, the specter of rising inflation, and rising bond yield. On the heels of that correction, the economic data to be had this week will either stoke the flames of concern or pour some cold water on them.

read more »
Investors: Just Don’t Overthink It Like the So-Called “Experts”

Investors: Just Don’t Overthink It Like the So-Called “Experts”

While the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast last week raised quite a few eyebrows — and expectations we might add — we’d remind investors that the folks in Atlanta have a history of over-exuberance in its forecasts. Just look at their performance last quarter and compare their current projections to those by the NY Fed, which comes in at about half of what its brethren in the South are estimating.

read more »
After a Disappointing GDP Print, Investors Take Stock of the State of the Economy

After a Disappointing GDP Print, Investors Take Stock of the State of the Economy

As we wrap January and move into February, we’ll start this week to examine the January data that will be coming our way after digesting a Q4 GDP number that was less than expected. All this while the President takes center stage at the State of the Union and details of his infrastructure plan begin to dribble out amid a stock market that only continues to rock and roll higher and higher.

read more »
Will Tax Cuts Translate into Consumer Spending & Business Investment?

Will Tax Cuts Translate into Consumer Spending & Business Investment?

By the time we close the week of Jan. 26, we should have pretty firm indications of the impact of tax reform on 2018 earnings expectations and soon after a clearer picture of where strategists see the S&P 500 going in 2018. In this week’s Monday Morning Kickoff we detail the earnings and economic data on tap this week that will help color in the lines of that picture.

read more »
Wary of Cracks as the Stock Market Continues to Climb Higher

Wary of Cracks as the Stock Market Continues to Climb Higher

With the market trading at nearly 21x expected trailing earnings and odds are there will be more tax reform led increases coming for EPS expectations, the question we face this week is what’s next? In short, our concerns center around the risk that tax reform expectations could fall short when it comes to the impact on the economy at a time when the market’s valuation is increasingly stretched and volatility has left the building. Much to ponder. 

read more »
What We’ll Be Watching for in the Stock Market in 2018

What We’ll Be Watching for in the Stock Market in 2018

Trading for the last week of 2017 ended on a mixed and somewhat subdued note with no sign of a Santa Claus rally, despite solid consumer spending this holiday shopping season. Overall, the market enjoyed one of its best years ever and in many ways, the overall market is priced to perfection. In a few weeks, we’ll start to get a taste of earnings reports for the fourth quarter, but as forward-looking investors, we are already eyeing how stocks and the market are poised to trade on 2018 earnings.

read more »
As GDP Forecast Bob and Weave, the Overall Vector Has Moved Lower with Diminished Velocity

As GDP Forecast Bob and Weave, the Overall Vector Has Moved Lower with Diminished Velocity

It is the week before the Christmas holiday, which has the market closed next Monday. Even so, we have all of 9 trading days left until we close the current quarter, which means that before the holiday — despite all the last minute holiday shopping to be done — we still have several companies reporting earnings and a number of economic data points that will factor into determining GDP for the current quarter.

read more »
Monday Morning Kickoff: A Market Priced to Perfection

Monday Morning Kickoff: A Market Priced to Perfection

With the market trading at 20x 2017 earnings expectations, we would call it “priced to perfection”, leaving very little room for error. A modest miss of an earnings report relative to expectations could hit a market that has only modest levels of institutional investor cash sitting on the sidelines. As always, we keep one eye on upside to be had, with the other assessing potential downside risks.

read more »