Monday Morning Kickoff

To help investors get ready for the trading days ahead, the Monday Morning Kickoff traces the key happenings of the previous week and looks ahead to the coming economic and earnings calendars for the new week.


Latest Data Suggests Even More Downward Revisions to Earnings and GDP
23 Apr

Latest Data Suggests Even More Downward Revisions to Earnings and GDP

With more than 2,000 corporate earnings reports on deck over the next two weeks, 1Q 2017 earnings will be in high gear at a time when a growing amount of hard data points to a sharp slowdown in 1Q 2017 and a weak start to 2Q 2017. In addition to the regular economic data, there are other indicators, such as oil and gold prices, that are also signaling concern. With those details in mind, let’s jump right into the data that has led us to conclude that we’ve only just begun to see the revision of earnings and GDP expectations — both headed in the wrong direction . . .

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April is looking like it will be even more turbulent than March for the stock market
09 Apr

April is looking like it will be even more turbulent than March for the stock market

There tends to be a wave of hope and optimism with a new president, but as history shows the soft data cannot overcome the hard economic data. At some point, the disconnect between the two closes and it tends not to be a pleasant time for investors. As we have been saying the last several weeks, the warning signs have been there and now we’re starting to get warnings signs that yes, expectations for 2Q 2017 and perhaps 3Q 2017 will need to be revised lower as well.

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Oil Creating a Bright Spot in the Energy Sector Market… For Now
27 Mar

Oil Creating a Bright Spot in the Energy Sector Market… For Now

One of the few bright spots when it comes to earnings picture is the energy sector, which his benefitting from higher oil prices and easier comparisons to lower earnings in Q1 2016. This has several thematic implications investors should be mindful of.

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Why we find the supposedly “data dependent” Fed’s action last week rather interesting
19 Mar

Why we find the supposedly “data dependent” Fed’s action last week rather interesting

Given the Fed’s rather lousy track record when it comes to timing its rate increases — more often than not, it tends to raise interest rates at the wrong time. This time around, however, it seems the Fed is somewhat hellbent on getting interest rates back to normalized levels from the artificially low levels they’ve been at for nearly a decade.

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Fed Wednesday Will Be The Focus, But There’s Much More Going On This Week
12 Mar

Fed Wednesday Will Be The Focus, But There’s Much More Going On This Week

While the stock market tried to rally after a very solid February Jobs Report that likely paves the way for the Fed to nudge interest rates higher, the S&P 500, Jones Industrial Average and the Russell 2000 Index all ticked lower for the week. Most interesting was the Friday sell-off in both the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) and the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP).

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