Monday Morning Kickoff

To help investors get ready for the trading days ahead, the Monday Morning Kickoff traces the key happenings of the previous week and looks ahead to the coming economic and earnings calendars for the new week.


On-Going Delays in Trump Agenda Forcing Downward GDP & Earnings Expectations
11 Jun

On-Going Delays in Trump Agenda Forcing Downward GDP & Earnings Expectations

Like any good circus, the multitude of events under the market’s big top kept us all sitting up at attention last week. It’s pretty clear that we’re seeing an awful lot of data points supporting the fact that we are entering into the later stages of the current business cycle — and the on-going stall to any type of progress in reforms to the ACA law and the tax code is only going to exasperate the situation when things really begin to turn. Hold on to your hats . . .

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No Matter How You Slice It, Nothing But Headwinds Ahead for the Stock Market
05 Jun

No Matter How You Slice It, Nothing But Headwinds Ahead for the Stock Market

The S&P 500 is on the cusp of overbought territory. When that’s happened in the recent past that index has either traded sideways for several weeks or it has soon peaked and traded off as evidenced by the move in late February and the first half of March. Now for the sobering thought . . . this continued move has come even though EPS expectations for the current quarter have been trimmed as have those for all of 2017.

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More Downside Risk Than Upside for GDP and Earnings For Back Half Of 2017
21 May

More Downside Risk Than Upside for GDP and Earnings For Back Half Of 2017

The current quarter has taken on a far different tone from how 2016 came to a close and 2017 kicked off. The schizophrenic risk profile of the market is increasing due to the impeachment fueled headlines from the Washington news cycle that is once again pushing out timing expectations for Team Trump’s reforms and stimulative plans. All told, the entire combination has taken its toll on the market, bringing volatility back into the equation and likely led to a growing number of investors to question growth prospects for the economy and earnings.

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Latest Data Suggests Even More Downward Revisions to Earnings and GDP
23 Apr

Latest Data Suggests Even More Downward Revisions to Earnings and GDP

With more than 2,000 corporate earnings reports on deck over the next two weeks, 1Q 2017 earnings will be in high gear at a time when a growing amount of hard data points to a sharp slowdown in 1Q 2017 and a weak start to 2Q 2017. In addition to the regular economic data, there are other indicators, such as oil and gold prices, that are also signaling concern. With those details in mind, let’s jump right into the data that has led us to conclude that we’ve only just begun to see the revision of earnings and GDP expectations — both headed in the wrong direction . . .

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April is looking like it will be even more turbulent than March for the stock market
09 Apr

April is looking like it will be even more turbulent than March for the stock market

There tends to be a wave of hope and optimism with a new president, but as history shows the soft data cannot overcome the hard economic data. At some point, the disconnect between the two closes and it tends not to be a pleasant time for investors. As we have been saying the last several weeks, the warning signs have been there and now we’re starting to get warnings signs that yes, expectations for 2Q 2017 and perhaps 3Q 2017 will need to be revised lower as well.

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