Electric Vehicle Market To Surpass 144 million units by 2030

Electric Vehicle Market To Surpass 144 million units by 2030

New research points to the size of the global electric vehicle (EV) hitting more than 50 million units by 2025, up from 11.3 million in 2020, before going on to top more than 144 million units by 2030. What’s interesting about this is the call that every third new car sold is anticipated to be propelled or assisted by an electric battery by 2025.

Part of the driving force behind the adoption of EVs is the call for stricter emissions control. For example, in California, the transportation sector is responsible for more than half of all of California’s carbon pollution, 80 percent of smog-forming pollution and 95 percent of toxic diesel emissions. As a result in September 2020, California announced it will phase out gasoline powered cars and 100% of in-state sales of new passenger cars and trucks are zero-emission by 2035. Another example of a powerful tailwind for our Cleaner Living investment theme.

More recently, governors of a dozen US states including California, New York, Massachusetts and North Carolina called on President Joe Biden to back ending sales of new gasoline-powered vehicles by 2035. This comes as Ford Motor (F), General Motors (GM) and other automotive manufacturers look to challenge Tesla (TSLA) in the EV market. In late May Ford announced it would boost its electric vehicle spending to more than $30 billion and aims to have 40% of its global volume be all electric by 2030. Soon thereafter, General Motors announced it would increase its  global spending on electric and autonomous vehicles to $35 billion through 2025, 30% greater than its most recent forecast. As that occurs and the competitive landscape tightens, EV vehicle price points are poised to improve, spurring adoption.

All of the above suggests not only further growth in the EV market past 2030, but continued demand for EV related infrastructure like the charging stations from Blink Charging (BLNK), ChargePoint and others.

Disclosure

Volvo joins Tesla as it targets all-electric semi truck in 2019

Volvo joins Tesla as it targets all-electric semi truck in 2019

While Tesla continues to make headlines, progress on electric cars continues but those are not the only vehicles that are being prepped for all-electric solutions. Even as Tesla looks to bring Tesla Semi, a heavy-duty Class 8 truck to market in 2019, others including Daimler, Thor Industries and Volvo are testing their own versions, which in some cases include medium-duty class 6 trucks. Each of these is looking to tap incremental demand to be had as states look to address air quality, which is very much in sync with our Clean Living investing theme.

Much like we have seen with electric cars, the tradeoff between mileage and charge as well as the availability of charging stations will all be factors for the adoption of electric trucks. As that adoption rises, it will necessitate a pick up in demand for lithium as well as wide-bandgap semiconductors, which are all part of our Disruptive Innovators investment theme.

Volvo Trucks released teaser images Wednesday of the electric trucks it plans to bring to California next year as part of a demonstration project, the latest truck manufacturer to publicize its electric plans in the state.

The attraction to California is no accident. The state has set aggressive targets to improve air quality and reduce carbon emissions, particularly those generated from tailpipes.

Daimler Trucks North America said in July it would begin testing 20 fully electric heavy- and medium-duty Freightliner models at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach this year. Tesla, which unveiled the Tesla Semi prototype in November 2017 , began testing its prototype semis in California and Nevada earlier this year. Tesla CEO Elon Musk has said production of the Tesla Semi, a Class 8 heavy duty truck, would begin in 2019.

Newcomer Thor Trucks is developing a medium-duty Class-6 electric truck for UPS, which will also be tested in California.

Volvo Trucks plans to test its new electric VNR truck, a refitted version of its diesel-powered VNR model. The electric VNR, which will be based on powertrain technology used in the Volvo FE Electric, will be produced for the North American commercial vehicle market starting in 2020, the company said.

Source: Volvo Trucks teases the all-electric semi truck it’s bringing to California in 2019 | TechCrunch

Edison ramps its EV charging spending in California

Edison ramps its EV charging spending in California

When we look at any of our investment themes, we are mindful of confirming data points as well as ones that challenge their base assumptions. That is especially true with our Disruptive Technologies and Business Models investing theme. While we recognize that disruption may not play out as expected and may take hold in other industries other than what’s expected, it’s always nice to receive confirming signals. In this case, it’s regarding the adoption of electric vehicles (EV) as companies get around to addressing the charging station shortage. While it’s sort of a chicken-egg problem, the reality is given the mileage limitations people won’t shift to electric vehicles if there’s no place to charge them.

Edison International’s Southern California Edison utility is looking to spend an additional $760.1 million on expanding electric car charging networks as the state works to get more emissions-free vehicles on the road.

Edison said Tuesday that it filed a plan with state regulators to support the installation of 48,000 charging ports over four years. Southern California Edison already won $343 million from regulators to help build out the networks necessary to charge medium- and heavy-duty electric vehicles.

California Gov. Jerry Brown has made the adoption of electric cars a key part of his effort to fight climate change. This year, he outlined a $2.5-billion plan to expand a network of EV charging and hydrogen fueling stations as part of the state’s goal of getting 5 million zero-emissions cars on the road by 2030. Utilities such as Edison have hailed the rapid adoption of electric cars as a potential boon that promises to boost electricity demand.

Source: Edison wants to spend $760 million on EV charging in California

Volvo’s switch toward electric vehicles to will start in China

Volvo’s switch toward electric vehicles to will start in China

We expected the playing field in electric vehicles to become more competitive as a growing number of manufacturers looked to challenge Tesla (TSLA). Given the Rising Middle-Class and level of pollution in China — according to the Chinese Ministry of Health, industrial pollution has made cancer China’s leading cause of death — we are not surprised that Volvo would begin this transition away from combustion engines. The implications to watch will be the price points at which Volvo brings these all-electric models to market in China.

Volvo Cars will build its first electric vehicles in China as it moves to develop an entirely electrified lineup, and the automaker also is unveiling a subscription service as an alternative to car buying, CEO Hakan Samuelsson told The Nikkei in a recent interview.

The Sweden-based automaker surprised the world in July by announcing that all new-model releases starting in 2019 would be electrified.

Volvo plans to roll out five electric cars by 2021, with the first debuting in 2019 under the new premium electric vehicle brand Polestar. Volvo will build this in China with parent Geely Automobile Holdings, hoping to take advantage of economies of scale.

Source: Volvo’s switch toward electric will start in China, CEO says- Nikkei Asian Review

Samsung focuses innovation efforts on the next industry to be disrupted – autos

Samsung focuses innovation efforts on the next industry to be disrupted – autos

 

With innovation stalling, at least for now, in the smartphone market, we see companies shifting their R&D investments in technologies that are poised to disrupt other markets. One of those receiving the most attention these days is the automotive industry.

While the guts of cars and trucks have become littered with chips and sensors, we will soon be seeing even greater connectivity within the car as part of our Connected Society investing theme, as well as self-driving and organic light emitting diode interior lighting technology that resides in our Disruptive Technology theme. With competitors ranging from Apple (AAPL) to Google (GOOGL) and Intel (INTC) as well as Facebook (FB) and even Amazon (AMZN) investing in the future of auto, Samsung’s latest effort, given its various chip, battery and display businesses is to be expected.

Samsung has announced a $300 million fund to invest in a range of automotive technologies. The new Samsung Automotive Innovation Fund will invest in connected car and autonomous driving technologies covering artificial intelligence (AI), machine vision, smart sensors, safety features, cybersecurity, and more.

The fund’s first investment will be in Austria’s TTTech, a company specializing in safety, networking, and software integration for ADAS (advanced driver-assistance systems) and automated driving platforms. Samsung revealed it will invest €75 million ($89 million) in the company.

The Korean electronics giant has made no secret of its intentions in the broader automotive realm and has been ramping up efforts in research and development for products relating to transport for a while now. Samsung has made previous investments in battery technology for electric vehicles, including investments in California-based Seeo, which develops rechargeable lithium-ion batteries, and StoreDot, a company that’s building instant-charging batteries for electric cars.

Source: Samsung creates $300 million fund and new business unit for autonomous driving tech | VentureBeat | Transportation | by Paul Sawers

Is a Safer, More Entertaining and Eventually Autonomous Car Near?

Is a Safer, More Entertaining and Eventually Autonomous Car Near?

It seems every day we hear about the inevitability of the autonomous car, a member of our Disruptive Technology investing theme, with many hoping that it will usher in a new area of safety.  According to the Association for Safe International Road Travel, 3,287 people die, on average, every day in road crashes. That translates into 1.3 million deaths annually with an additional 20-50 million injured or disabled. Globally, road crashes are the 9th leading cause of death.

Clearly, there is room for improvement and Apple’s (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook agrees, citing the auto industry as ripe for a major disruption in a recent interview on Bloomberg Television. According to Cook, there are three vectors of change intersecting: autonomous driving, electrification of the auto and ride-sharing. From our thematic investing lens, this is where Disruptive Technologies meet the Connected Society.

Cook revealed that his company is focusing on autonomous systems, referring to it as a very important core technology that is probably one of the most difficult AI (Artificial Intelligence) projects to work on. Apple has hired over 1,000 engineers to work on the technology and just this April secured a permit from the California DMV to test three self-driving sports-utility vehicles. The company is clearly also focused on the ride-sharing vector of change, as last year Apple invested $1 billion — pretty much chump change for the company these days — in Didi Chuxing, the biggest ride-hailing service in China. As for electrification, it remains to be seen if Apple will develop their own electric vehicles or partner and sell their technology.

Apple is not alone, as the electrification leader Tesla (TSLA) continues to break new ground and Alphabet (GOOGL) is working on autonomous technology in partnerships with Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCAU)and Lyft. BMW (BMWYY), in cooperation with Intel (INTC), reports that it intends to have Level 3, 4 and even 5 capabilities for self-driving by 2021. Level 3 is defined as conditional automation that requires a driver to intervene in certain situations, but aren’t obligated to be constantly monitoring progress. Level 4 is full autonomy, while Level 5 requires zero input from a driver to navigate city and highway roads and is expected to be at least on par with the performance level of a human driver.

 

A Conversation with One of the Pioneers of In-Car Information & Entertainment

To better understand the evolution of the smarter vehicle, on a recent episode of Cocktail Investing, Tematica Research’s Chris Versace and Lenore Hawkins spoke with Ted Cardenas, Senior Vice President of Marketing, Car Electronics Division at Pioneer Electronics Corp (PNCOY). Given that about 95 percent of his company’s business is related to auto and the company will reach its 80th anniversary next year, we thought he’d have some valuable insight. This is the company that introduced the consumer laser disc in 1979, the car CD player in 1984 and GPS car navigation in 1990, with around four decades in the car entertainment space.

Ted pointed out to us that compared to home or office-based technologies, the car is a seriously brutal local for innovation where electronics need to be able to withstand extremes in temperatures, moisture and vibrations – not exactly the friendliest environment! We discussed how the increasingly Connected Society allows for not just millions of on-demand songs, but also delivered the “killer app” of real-time traffic information thanks to all those GPS enabled smart phones tagging along with their drivers.

The Connected Society has materially changed product development for the car as well as it also means connected companies. The need for higher and higher speed data networks and the innovations that allow for and take advantage of them means that companies no longer have to, or should for that matter, go it alone. Each company is only part of the solution as we see more specialization taking place with the consumer benefiting from a simple, usually intuitive solution in which all the complexity has been blissfully hidden.

In this new development paradigm, relationships are increasingly important as companies specialize within the solution set and we’ve seen some of the complexity offloaded to smartphones, allowing for greater flexibility as consumer can choose which device best fits their needs. For Pioneer, this means offering in-dash multimedia receivers that are compatible with popular smartphone interfaces and apps such as Apple CarPlay®, Android Auto ™, and Waze®, as well as features such as Bluetooth® music streaming, hands-free calling, Spotify® and Pandora®.

Pioneer isn’t just innovating within entertainment and communications as the company is also developing advanced driver assist for both OEM and aftermarket, allowing owners of older cars to benefit from the latest in safety improvements. When asked about his expectations around the timeline for the truly driverless car, Ted framed his analysis in the context of the evolution of in-car GPS systems – an evolution by degrees rather than a binary event.

The first GPS systems were developed by Pioneer and were used to figure out where you were on a map, but could not provide point-to-point directions. Those first systems also didn’t provide 100% coverage, so drivers could find themselves driving into a GPS void when traveling in areas not covered by the devices internal maps. Over time the map coverage became increasingly more complete and turn-by-turn directions evolved from available only in highly-trafficked areas into the most remote. He suspects we will see something similar with driver-assist that will offer more thorough assistance in more populated areas with less as one gets into more rural areas. Over time the level of assistance and coverage areas will expand.

Finally, we discussed how the increasingly smart car will also do more of the heavy lifting when it comes to maintenance, providing a more seamless driver experience that not only provides autonomous transportation, but monitors and schedules its own maintenance needs. We likely not alone in looking forward to the day when we no longer find ourselves noticing that little oil change reminder sticker a few months and few thousand miles late. The car of the future will be safer, smarter and a lot more entertaining.

 

Companies mentioned on the Podcast

  • Alphabet (AAPL)
  • Apple (AAPL)
  • BMW (BMWYY)
  • Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCAU)
  • Intel (INTC)
  • Pandora (P)
  • Pioneer Electronics (PNCOY)
  • Tesla Motors (TSLA)