Cocktail Investing Ep 27: Dovish Yellen Rallies Stocks, But Comments & Beige Book Signal Slowing Economy

Cocktail Investing Ep 27: Dovish Yellen Rallies Stocks, But Comments & Beige Book Signal Slowing Economy

In this week’s program, Dovish Yellen pushes the market higher, but underlying economic data points to things headed in the opposite direction, the move away from cash is picking up (good news from our Cashless Consumption theme) and nearest and dearest to our hearts — coffee and wine are good things for our health. Yes!

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As earnings move into the fast lane, things are likely to get bumpier

As earnings move into the fast lane, things are likely to get bumpier

We have been talking about volatility for several weeks, and while we take solace in knowing that the herd is catching up, we’re not exactly thrilled the latest data suggests there is more revising to be done. With market volatility picking up as earnings velocity takes off, we are keeping our inverse ETF position intact, maintaining our short bias on two positions and scaling into another position.

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The Data Says Steady as She Goes

The Data Says Steady as She Goes

With the herd taking a bullish view — despite the hard data we’ve been getting that calls for a rest in expectations for both 2017 earnings and GDP forecasts — we’ll continue to stay the course, which demands protective measures while we look for opportunities for investments.

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Adding more protection, but also taking advantage of YouTube’s misfortune

Adding more protection, but also taking advantage of YouTube’s misfortune

As the markets get bumpy, we not only add another protective position, but we also add a one new option call in this main Connected Society player. 

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As the market mood turns sour, we continue to favor our short positions

As the market mood turns sour, we continue to favor our short positions

With the mood of investors starts to turn sour as everyone realizes the Trump policies will take some time to implement — if at all — we continue to favor our short positions.

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Data or Divination?

Data or Divination?

You’ve probably already learned that on Wednesday the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee increased its Fed Funds rate to 0.75 – 1.0 percent. The markets were concerned that we would hear a much more hawkish tone from the Fed, which would have implied a possibly faster pace of rate hikes. Chair Janet Yellen’s prepared speech coupled […]

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The Fed Hikes Rates, But We’re Positioning for the Coming Fallout

The Fed Hikes Rates, But We’re Positioning for the Coming Fallout

The Fed’s inflation-focused rate hike yesterday is poised to crimp consumer spending at the margin and hit an auto market that is already starting to deal with an aging demand cycle.

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Trump on accelerator while Fed tapping the breaks

Trump on accelerator while Fed tapping the breaks

While the headlines have been dominated by talk of whether or not President Trump can get Congress to work with him and to just what extent the Republicans will unite behind him, the bigger but much less obvious battle is between the White House and the Fed. While the Trump administration is talking all about […]

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Bond market dancing to a different tune than equities

Bond market dancing to a different tune than equities

Whenever we see trends in the market we immediately look for confirming data points. With the impressive rise in equity markets since the election, we look at the bond market to see if there is agreement on all this bullishness. There isn’t. “The bond market is taking a totally different view from the equity market. […]

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Fed’s Yellen boosts expectations of March rate rise

Fed’s Yellen boosts expectations of March rate rise

As the Federal Reserve’s GDPNow revises estimates for the first quarter 2017 GDP growth down to a decidedly unimpressive 1.8 percent, today Fed Chair Janet Yellen gave an audience in Chicago a quasi-definitive on a March hike.   Following a week of hawkish messages from top US rate setters, the Fed chair told an audience in […]

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