Category Archives: Weekly Wrap

WEEKLY WRAP: The Market Stumbles for the First Time in a While

WEEKLY WRAP: The Market Stumbles for the First Time in a While

Last week the S&P 500 experienced its first down week in two months. This week we saw the market stumble for the first time in a while amidst weakening breadth and some poor earnings results. Taking a step back, one can see that this pull back was inevitable and in this edition of the Weekly Wrap Tematica Chief Macro Strategists takes you through all the details and sets the table for where things could be headed for the remainder of the year.

read more »
With Just One Bear For Every Five Bulls, There Is Serious Herd Mentality

With Just One Bear For Every Five Bulls, There Is Serious Herd Mentality

The Tematica team has been doing a lot of head shaking lately with the markets doing things that either don’t make much fundamental sense or violate well-established correlations. While we all clearly enjoy seeing the markets go up, we prefer to see confirmation that the upward moves are on steady ground. From falling volumes to the rise in both the dollar and oil prices, we are seeing some cracks in the proverbial wall of worry that equities climb and this keeps us in a cautious mood as we get ready for the holidays. In light of the upcoming Black Friday, I also offer a few suggestions at the end for those folks on your gift list that are just impossible.

read more »
Market Indices Push Up into Nosebleed Territory

Market Indices Push Up into Nosebleed Territory

As we move into the 101st month of the current economic expansion, the respective stock market indices have continued their climb further into nosebleed territory. On Thursday the S&P 500 avoided its first back to back daily declines in about a month after a rally into the close pushed it back into positive territory for the day, while today the Dow Jones Industrial Average touched a new all-time high. The headlines are all about ebullience in the markets, but in this week’s wrap up we’ll point out that there are plenty of yellow flags waving.

read more »
Amid a better economic and earnings picture, concerns remain

Amid a better economic and earnings picture, concerns remain

The bottom line for the week is the economic picture looks better today than it did a few months ago. Earnings so far have been in general stronger than was expected, but we are still dealing with an equity market that is in over bought territory and valuations remain in the top 0.7% of all time with volatility depressed to an unprecedented degree. While we clearly prefer to see the market go up rather than down, we remain wary of such elevated valuations and exceptional conditions.

read more »
WEEKLY WRAP: At some point investors will have to pay the piper

WEEKLY WRAP: At some point investors will have to pay the piper

While we do not see signs that a recession is around the corner, the economic data rolling in continues to indicate that we are well past the 7th inning of this business cycle. At some point, the markets will have to pay the piper for their extended period of record high valuations and record low volatility, but we are not currently seeing the kind of euphoric sentiment that typically occurs in the run-up to a crash-worthy peak. In fact, the chorus calling for a crash in October was rather large, making a crash this month highly unlikely as the market is infamous for making fools out of as many people as possible.

read more »
WEEKLY WRAP: October Singing to the Same Tune We’ve Been Boogying To All Year Long

WEEKLY WRAP: October Singing to the Same Tune We’ve Been Boogying To All Year Long

We continue to have a market priced at levels that are in the upper atmosphere of historical norms in an economy that continues to be “meh,” with income levels rising about as fast as a tortoise through molasses. We know full well that stock prices can get even headier from here, but beware of “reversion to the mean” for volatility and the reality of upside potential versus downside risk from such heights.

read more »