Author Archives: Lenore Hawkins & Chris Versace

About Lenore Hawkins & Chris Versace

Lenore Hawkins serves as the Chief Macro Strategist for Tematica Research. With over 20 years of experience in finance, strategic planning, risk management, asset valuation and operations optimization, her focus is primarily on macroeconomic influences and identification of those long-term themes that create investing headwinds or tailwinds. Chris Versace is Tematica's Chief Investment Officer and editor of Tematica Investing newsletter. All of that capitalizes on his near 20 years in the investment industry, nearly all of it breaking down industries and recommending stocks.
All Eyes On The September Jobs Report

All Eyes On The September Jobs Report

Today’s Big Picture

US market futures point to a modestly lower open Friday morning. After the disappointing manufacturing and services data this week, all eyes will be on today’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, which is expected to see 145,000 jobs added in September, up from 130,000 in August with the unemployment rate holding at 3.7% and wages gaining +0.2%. Keep in mind that the General Motors (GM) strike will add some confusion to the data as striking workers aren’t counted in payrolls.

We’ll also be looking for any updates on the previous downward revisions to payrolls. In August the BLS cut job gain estimates for 2018 and early 2019 by about 500,000, the largest such downward revision in the past decade. Overall we’ve seen downward revisions for around 17 months – a sure sign that labor market dynamics ...

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Negative earnings  pre-announcements and services data take center stage

Negative earnings pre-announcements and services data take center stage

Today’s Big Picture

Barring any new developments on the trade wars or impeachment inquiry front, investors are focused on the release of September services data for the US and Europe. Has the weakness in manufacturing around the world expanded has into services?

Stocks in Asia again were in the red today on news that the US will be imposing additional tariffs on European Union goods by mid-October. Markets in China and South Korea are closed today for holidays. Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost over 2% as did Australia’s S&P/ASX 200. European equity markets are…

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Everything You Need To Know About The Markets Today

Everything You Need To Know About The Markets Today

Markets in Asia struggled today to get any traction following yesterday’s lackluster markets in the US and the weakening data coming out of Europe. The European equity markets are mostly in the green (albeit only slightly) with the exception of the FTSE 100 which is slightly down as of mid-day trading.

The beleaguered Hong Kong stock exchange got a shot in the arm today as the initial public offering of AB InBev’s Asia Pacific business – Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Ltd (1876.HK) – raised $5 billion, the second largest IPO of the year behind Uber’s (UBER) $8.1 billion in May. The company had initially looked to raise closer to $10 billion two months ago but was forced to put the IPO on hold after investors balked at the price. That seems to be a growing trend these days.

Major events for the day will be… READ MORE HERE

EP 104: Bye bye Cocktail Investing and hello Thematic Signals Podcast

EP 104: Bye bye Cocktail Investing and hello Thematic Signals Podcast

For more than two years, we’ve used our thematic lens to distill the everyday noise around into clear investing signals. We’ve shared thematic signals for our 10 investing themes, shared conversations with management teams, portfolio managers and key thought leaders. 

But after more than 100 Cocktail Investing podcasts, we are making a change. As we leave Cocktail Investing behind, we are launching the Thematic Signals podcast. 

Is anything changing?

Only the name. The same great noise distillation will continue unabated provided you follow us to the new show. The new episodes will be posted on Tematica Research, iTunes, Spotify and elsewhere. 

I encourage you to subscribe so you don’t miss an episode. For example, on the inaugural Thematic Signals podcast I explain from a thematic perspective what is happening and why with retailer earnings, and which retailers are positioned to benefit from a thematic perspective. I also explain exactly why retail is a key part of the US economy and how it drives nearly 20% of the S&P 500. 

Here’s a link to that Thematic Signals podcast for your listening pleasure! 

See you at the new show!

Ep 102: Getting down with Dan Ahrens, AdvisorShares Pure Cannabis ETF

Ep 102: Getting down with Dan Ahrens, AdvisorShares Pure Cannabis ETF

On today’s podcast, we sit down with Dan Ahrens, the portfolio manager of the AdvisorShares Pure Cannabis ETF (YOLO), the first actively managed ETF with a dedicated cannabis investment mandate domiciled in the United States. Dan is no stranger to the investing in vice stocks (tobacco, gaming, alcohol) and he is bringing that experience and due diligence acumen to this Cannabis focused ETF. Unlike most ETFs, Pure Cannabis is actively managed, and Dan explains the reasons for that as well as the benefits it can bring to an ETF. During the podcast, Dan talks not only several of the ETF’s top holdings, but also how he sees the long game playing in the cannabis opportunity.

Have a topic or a conversation you think we should tackle on the podcast, email me at cversace@tematicaresearch.com

And don’t forget to subscribe to the Cocktail Investing Podcast on iTunes!

Resources for this podcast:

PURE CANNABIS ETF (YOLO) HOLDINGS AS OF MAY 8, 2019

(OGI) ORGANIGRAM HOLDINGS INC, (TGOD) GREEN ORGANIC DUTCHMAN HOLDINGS, (APHA) APHRIA INC, (CTST) CANNTRUST HOLDINGS INC, (IIPR) INNOVATIVE INDUSTRIAL PROPERTIES, (HEXO) HEXO CORP, (CARA) CARA THERAPEUTICS INC, (CGC) CANOPY GROWTH CORP, (ACB) AURORA CANNABIS INC, (VFF) VILLAGE FARMS INTERNATIONAL, (NEPT) NEPTUNE WELLNESS SOLUTIONS, (TLRY) TILRAY INC, (EMH) EMERALD HEALTH THERAPEUTICS, (CRBP) CORBUS PHARMACEUTICALS HOLDINGS, (ALEF) ALEAFIA HEALTH INC, (FIRE) SUPREME CANNABIS CO INC, (,) GREENLANE HOLDINGS, (WMD) WEEDMD INC, (ARNA) ARENA PHARMACEUTICALS INC, (KHRN) KHIRON LIFE SCIENCES CORP, (NTEC) INTEC PHARMA LTD, (RIV) CANOPY RIVERS INC, (ZYNE) ZYNERBA PHARMACEUTICALS INC

Ep. 101: Why Apple Will Be the Only Smartphone Survivor

Ep. 101: Why Apple Will Be the Only Smartphone Survivor



We’re halfway through the March quarter earnings season and so far, aggregate earnings for the S&P 500 is running ahead of expectations, and that has helped drive the market to new highs. Yet, as evidenced by results from 3M, Tesla, Sherwin Williams, Gorman Rupp and others that are feeling the impact of the slowing global economy there are pockets of weakness investors should avoid. We discuss that as well as several new thematic data points, including Apple’s Service business and what it means for how investors should compare it to other smartphone companies to the new IPO that is plant-based protein company Beyond Meat, that add credence to Tematica’s Digital Lifestyle, Disruptive Innovators, Cleaner Living and Safety & Security investing themes. 

Have a topic we should tackle on the podcast, email me at cversace@tematicaresearch.com

And don’t forget to subscribe to the Cocktail Investing Podcast on iTunes!

Ep 100: A Thematic Look at This Weeks’ Earnings Reports

Ep 100: A Thematic Look at This Weeks’ Earnings Reports


As we get ready for more than 685 companies to report their March quarter results this week, there are apt to be a number of key data points for our Digital Infrastructure, Digital Lifestyle, Rise of the New Middle Class, Guilty Pleasures and Cleaner Living investing themes. On this episode of the Cocktail Investing Podcast,  we walk through which ones we’ll be digging into with respect to those themes and the other 5 investing themes. You may think smokes and beer, but when Altria (MO), Boston Beer (SAM), Starbucks (SBUX), Nokia and Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) report, our thematic lens sees data, data, data and more data.

Coming into the week, roughly 15% of the S&P 500 companies have reported, which means the vast majority will be doing so on the coming weeks. As we close this week, 45% of the S&P 500 will have shared their March quarter results and updated their guidance, which will set the stage for what’s to come at us in the following weeks. We also get our first look at March quarter GDP this week, and based on the data had during the quarter, there is no question it will show a slowing US economy compared to the second half of 2018. Even so, it’s going to look better on a relative basis to the other three global economic horsemen that are China, Japan and the eurozone. 

Have a topic we should tackle on the podcast, email me at cversace@tematicaresearch.com

And don’t forget to subscribe to the Cocktail Investing Podcast on iTunes!

Resources for this podcast:

What the Fed said, and why it spooked the markets

What the Fed said, and why it spooked the markets

 

On this episode of the Cocktail Investing Podcast, we share not only what the Fed said exiting its latest monetary policy meeting, but how and why that was very different from the last few of these meetings. It comes as no surprise that Fed Chairman Powell cites our Middle-Class Squeeze theme as one of the culprits to the Fed’s revisions, but an emerging headwind for our Living the Life investing theme is also rearing its head. We also share some latest signals for our Clean Living, Disruptive Innovators and Digital Infrastructure themes, including how drinking two or more sugary sodas or sports drinks a day linked with early death and development is already being started on what will come after 5G. We end the podcast talking about how the growing number of video streaming services, including new ones from Apple and Disney, is likely to give way to a new kind of multi-content subscription packages that could include streaming video, music, gaming and news. That’s a new development that could alter the competitive lines and alliances inside our Digital Lifestyle investing theme.

Have a topic we should tackle on the podcast, email me at cversace@tematicaresearch.com

And don’t forget to subscribe to the Cocktail Investing Podcast on iTunes!

Resources for this podcast:

Ep 98: The Squeeze Is On

Ep 98: The Squeeze Is On

The state of retail results and consumer debt confirm our Middle-Class Squeeze investing theme

 

On this episode of the Cocktail Investing Podcast, we focus on the growing headwind for the economy and retail that is associated with our Middle-Class Squeeze investing theme. Consumers, especially those associated with our Aging of the Population investing theme, have racked up record credit card debt over the last several years, and it’s beginning to weigh on their ability to spend. This has reignited retail apocalypse as the number of announced brick & mortar store closings reignites following disappointing holiday sales and same store comp sales and the continued shift to digital shopping that is part of our Digital Lifestyle investing theme.

On the podcast we talk about which retailers are benefitting from the Middle-Class Squeeze tailwinds, which means vibrant same store comps and opening more locations in the coming months. In addition, we run through the latest economic data and share why we’ll be paying close attention to insider selling activity between now and the end of March.

Have a topic we should tackle on the podcast, email me at cversace@tematicaresearch.com

And don’t forget to subscribe to the Cocktail Investing Podcast on iTunes!

Resources for this podcast:

 

 

Ep 97: Buffett, Musk and what’s next for stocks

Ep 97: Buffett, Musk and what’s next for stocks

On this episode of the Cocktail Investing Podcast, we dig into the what’s driving one of the stock market’s best runs in over 20 years, one that has the S&P 500 up nearly 12% year to date. A more dovish Fed and seeming progress on US-Trade are the likely culprits, but underneath it all, the global economy continues to slow, companies are cutting #earnings expectations and we’ve seen more #dividend cuts thus far in 2019 than we have in all of 2018.

Something is amiss in the stock market as expectations for growth in the economy and earnings wane, making the overall market that much expensive. With the velocity of earnings reports about to slow significantly, odds are investors will soon be sitting back and plotting what comes next as we wait for more concrete details on any US-China trade deal.

Tucked inside his latest annual shareholder letter, Warren Buffett offers some insight, which meshes very well with not only our thematic investing approach but his concerns over prices matches our current thinking. We break that down on the podcast and share where to look for opportunities as we discuss several thematic signals. Given the timing of the podcast, we also share some thoughts on the latest SEC related issue with Elon Musk and his Twitter account.

Have a topic we should tackle on the podcast, email me at cversace@tematicaresearch.com

And don’t forget to subscribe to the Cocktail Investing Podcast on iTunes!

Resources for this podcast: