The Fireworks Set Off By The Trump Tariffs and Their Impact on Earnings, Inflation and the Market Going Forward
On this week’s podcast, Tematica’s mixologists Lenore Hawkins and Chris Versace explain what investors should be prepared for as we move into the 2Q 2018 earnings season. While the 2018 narrative started with tax reform, during the 2Q 2018 wore on it became increasingly focused on trade as tariff talk escalated among the US, China, European Union, Mexico and Canada. With company’s ranging from Harley Davidson to General Motors, Toyota and BMW all crying uncle from the potential tariff impact, we could be in for a very different earnings season than many thought back in January.
Current expectations have the S&P 500 group of companies delivering EPS growth between 20%-22% year over year in the back half of 2018. As Lenore and Chris point out, however, the growing number of headwinds from trade and tariffs to slowing growth, higher interest rates and the rebound in the dollar could result in more conservative guidance than the market is expecting. What could it mean if that expected EPS growth in the second half if more like 15%… well, you’ll just have to listen to the episode to find out.
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Amid the 2Q 2017 earnings onslaught, Chris Versace, Tematica’s Chief Investment Officer, and Lenore Hawkins, Tematica’s Chief Macro Strategist, are combing through more than 600 earnings reports this week. With companies ranging from Amazon (AMZN), Facebook (FB), Alphabet (GOOGL), Lam Research (LRCX), PayPal (PYPL), MasterCard (MA) and Caterpillar (CAT) to name several, all reporting, there is no shortage of data points to be had.
Rather than skip this week’s podcast, we’re sharing our recent Thematic Summit that we held for our institutional subscribers on June 28, 2017. These conference calls include a deeper look at the economy and markets, but in particular in-depth discussion on a number of things as they relate to the Tematica Select List. The Select List is our recommended list of stocks, ETF’s and mutual funds that have the strongest thematic tailwinds and the most upside potential at current market conditions. It’s part of our Tematica Investing product, which you can read more about here. With positions in companies like Amplify Snacks (BETR), Universal Display (OLED), and CalAmp Corp. (CAMP) that significantly outperformed the market averages in 2017, we strongly suspect you’ll enjoy our thoughts on the Select List
Enjoy today’s episode and we’ll be back next week with a brand new one that should be extra special as Chris will be in Singapore to keynote INVEST 2017 as well as teach a master class in thematic investing.
Companies mentioned on the Podcast
- Alphabet (GOOGL)
- Amazon (AMZN)
- Amplify Snacks (BETR)
- Applied Materials (AMAT)
- CalAmp Corp. (CAMP)
- Costco Wholesale (COST)
- Facebook (FB)
- Universal Display (OLED)
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