Category Archives: Cocktail Investing Podcast

EP 104: Bye bye Cocktail Investing and hello Thematic Signals Podcast

EP 104: Bye bye Cocktail Investing and hello Thematic Signals Podcast

For more than two years, we’ve used our thematic lens to distill the everyday noise around into clear investing signals. We’ve shared thematic signals for our 10 investing themes, shared conversations with management teams, portfolio managers and key thought leaders. 

But after more than 100 Cocktail Investing podcasts, we are making a change. As we leave Cocktail Investing behind, we are launching the Thematic Signals podcast. 

Is anything changing?

Only the name. The same great noise distillation will continue unabated provided you follow us to the new show. The new episodes will be posted on Tematica Research, iTunes, Spotify and elsewhere. 

I encourage you to subscribe so you don’t miss an episode. For example, on the inaugural Thematic Signals podcast I explain from a thematic perspective what is happening and why with retailer earnings, and which retailers are positioned to benefit from a thematic perspective. I also explain exactly why retail is a key part of the US economy and how it drives nearly 20% of the S&P 500. 

Here’s a link to that Thematic Signals podcast for your listening pleasure! 

See you at the new show!

Ep 103: What to do in the new “risk off” stock market environment

Ep 103: What to do in the new “risk off” stock market environment



On today’s podcast we discuss the renewed sense of uncertainty in the stock market following the US-China trade SNAFU that is simply not what investors were expecting just 10 days ago. With weeks to go until the next round of trade talks, investors will focus on the potential impact from the latest round of trade tariffs on existing growth expectations for the economy and corporate earnings. Following the recent sharp market sell off as investors grapple with these issues and the renewed risk off mindset, we could see a dead cat bounce emerge and rather than fall for this potential head fake investors should stay on the sidelines until building their shopping list for when the market stabilizes. The kinds of companies to examine include those that are undergoing a business transformation that will allow them to more adeptly ride our investing themes. We walk through examples ranging from Apple and Disney to AT&T and Axon Enterprises. The podcast closes out with some of the latest signals for our Digital Lifestyle, Middle-Class Squeeze and Safety & Security investing themes, and why we more than like Costco’s business model.

Have a topic or a conversation you think we should tackle on the podcast, email me at cversace@tematicaresearch.com 

And don’t forget to subscribe to the Cocktail Investing Podcast on iTunes! 

Ep 102: Getting down with Dan Ahrens, AdvisorShares Pure Cannabis ETF

Ep 102: Getting down with Dan Ahrens, AdvisorShares Pure Cannabis ETF

On today’s podcast, we sit down with Dan Ahrens, the portfolio manager of the AdvisorShares Pure Cannabis ETF (YOLO), the first actively managed ETF with a dedicated cannabis investment mandate domiciled in the United States. Dan is no stranger to the investing in vice stocks (tobacco, gaming, alcohol) and he is bringing that experience and due diligence acumen to this Cannabis focused ETF. Unlike most ETFs, Pure Cannabis is actively managed, and Dan explains the reasons for that as well as the benefits it can bring to an ETF. During the podcast, Dan talks not only several of the ETF’s top holdings, but also how he sees the long game playing in the cannabis opportunity.

Have a topic or a conversation you think we should tackle on the podcast, email me at cversace@tematicaresearch.com

And don’t forget to subscribe to the Cocktail Investing Podcast on iTunes!

Resources for this podcast:

PURE CANNABIS ETF (YOLO) HOLDINGS AS OF MAY 8, 2019

(OGI) ORGANIGRAM HOLDINGS INC, (TGOD) GREEN ORGANIC DUTCHMAN HOLDINGS, (APHA) APHRIA INC, (CTST) CANNTRUST HOLDINGS INC, (IIPR) INNOVATIVE INDUSTRIAL PROPERTIES, (HEXO) HEXO CORP, (CARA) CARA THERAPEUTICS INC, (CGC) CANOPY GROWTH CORP, (ACB) AURORA CANNABIS INC, (VFF) VILLAGE FARMS INTERNATIONAL, (NEPT) NEPTUNE WELLNESS SOLUTIONS, (TLRY) TILRAY INC, (EMH) EMERALD HEALTH THERAPEUTICS, (CRBP) CORBUS PHARMACEUTICALS HOLDINGS, (ALEF) ALEAFIA HEALTH INC, (FIRE) SUPREME CANNABIS CO INC, (,) GREENLANE HOLDINGS, (WMD) WEEDMD INC, (ARNA) ARENA PHARMACEUTICALS INC, (KHRN) KHIRON LIFE SCIENCES CORP, (NTEC) INTEC PHARMA LTD, (RIV) CANOPY RIVERS INC, (ZYNE) ZYNERBA PHARMACEUTICALS INC

Ep. 101: Why Apple Will Be the Only Smartphone Survivor

Ep. 101: Why Apple Will Be the Only Smartphone Survivor



We’re halfway through the March quarter earnings season and so far, aggregate earnings for the S&P 500 is running ahead of expectations, and that has helped drive the market to new highs. Yet, as evidenced by results from 3M, Tesla, Sherwin Williams, Gorman Rupp and others that are feeling the impact of the slowing global economy there are pockets of weakness investors should avoid. We discuss that as well as several new thematic data points, including Apple’s Service business and what it means for how investors should compare it to other smartphone companies to the new IPO that is plant-based protein company Beyond Meat, that add credence to Tematica’s Digital Lifestyle, Disruptive Innovators, Cleaner Living and Safety & Security investing themes. 

Have a topic we should tackle on the podcast, email me at cversace@tematicaresearch.com

And don’t forget to subscribe to the Cocktail Investing Podcast on iTunes!

Ep 100: A Thematic Look at This Weeks’ Earnings Reports

Ep 100: A Thematic Look at This Weeks’ Earnings Reports


As we get ready for more than 685 companies to report their March quarter results this week, there are apt to be a number of key data points for our Digital Infrastructure, Digital Lifestyle, Rise of the New Middle Class, Guilty Pleasures and Cleaner Living investing themes. On this episode of the Cocktail Investing Podcast,  we walk through which ones we’ll be digging into with respect to those themes and the other 5 investing themes. You may think smokes and beer, but when Altria (MO), Boston Beer (SAM), Starbucks (SBUX), Nokia and Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) report, our thematic lens sees data, data, data and more data.

Coming into the week, roughly 15% of the S&P 500 companies have reported, which means the vast majority will be doing so on the coming weeks. As we close this week, 45% of the S&P 500 will have shared their March quarter results and updated their guidance, which will set the stage for what’s to come at us in the following weeks. We also get our first look at March quarter GDP this week, and based on the data had during the quarter, there is no question it will show a slowing US economy compared to the second half of 2018. Even so, it’s going to look better on a relative basis to the other three global economic horsemen that are China, Japan and the eurozone. 

Have a topic we should tackle on the podcast, email me at cversace@tematicaresearch.com

And don’t forget to subscribe to the Cocktail Investing Podcast on iTunes!

Resources for this podcast:

What the Fed said, and why it spooked the markets

What the Fed said, and why it spooked the markets

 

On this episode of the Cocktail Investing Podcast, we share not only what the Fed said exiting its latest monetary policy meeting, but how and why that was very different from the last few of these meetings. It comes as no surprise that Fed Chairman Powell cites our Middle-Class Squeeze theme as one of the culprits to the Fed’s revisions, but an emerging headwind for our Living the Life investing theme is also rearing its head. We also share some latest signals for our Clean Living, Disruptive Innovators and Digital Infrastructure themes, including how drinking two or more sugary sodas or sports drinks a day linked with early death and development is already being started on what will come after 5G. We end the podcast talking about how the growing number of video streaming services, including new ones from Apple and Disney, is likely to give way to a new kind of multi-content subscription packages that could include streaming video, music, gaming and news. That’s a new development that could alter the competitive lines and alliances inside our Digital Lifestyle investing theme.

Have a topic we should tackle on the podcast, email me at cversace@tematicaresearch.com

And don’t forget to subscribe to the Cocktail Investing Podcast on iTunes!

Resources for this podcast:

Ep 98: The Squeeze Is On

Ep 98: The Squeeze Is On

The state of retail results and consumer debt confirm our Middle-Class Squeeze investing theme

 

On this episode of the Cocktail Investing Podcast, we focus on the growing headwind for the economy and retail that is associated with our Middle-Class Squeeze investing theme. Consumers, especially those associated with our Aging of the Population investing theme, have racked up record credit card debt over the last several years, and it’s beginning to weigh on their ability to spend. This has reignited retail apocalypse as the number of announced brick & mortar store closings reignites following disappointing holiday sales and same store comp sales and the continued shift to digital shopping that is part of our Digital Lifestyle investing theme.

On the podcast we talk about which retailers are benefitting from the Middle-Class Squeeze tailwinds, which means vibrant same store comps and opening more locations in the coming months. In addition, we run through the latest economic data and share why we’ll be paying close attention to insider selling activity between now and the end of March.

Have a topic we should tackle on the podcast, email me at cversace@tematicaresearch.com

And don’t forget to subscribe to the Cocktail Investing Podcast on iTunes!

Resources for this podcast:

 

 

Ep 97: Buffett, Musk and what’s next for stocks

Ep 97: Buffett, Musk and what’s next for stocks

On this episode of the Cocktail Investing Podcast, we dig into the what’s driving one of the stock market’s best runs in over 20 years, one that has the S&P 500 up nearly 12% year to date. A more dovish Fed and seeming progress on US-Trade are the likely culprits, but underneath it all, the global economy continues to slow, companies are cutting #earnings expectations and we’ve seen more #dividend cuts thus far in 2019 than we have in all of 2018.

Something is amiss in the stock market as expectations for growth in the economy and earnings wane, making the overall market that much expensive. With the velocity of earnings reports about to slow significantly, odds are investors will soon be sitting back and plotting what comes next as we wait for more concrete details on any US-China trade deal.

Tucked inside his latest annual shareholder letter, Warren Buffett offers some insight, which meshes very well with not only our thematic investing approach but his concerns over prices matches our current thinking. We break that down on the podcast and share where to look for opportunities as we discuss several thematic signals. Given the timing of the podcast, we also share some thoughts on the latest SEC related issue with Elon Musk and his Twitter account.

Have a topic we should tackle on the podcast, email me at cversace@tematicaresearch.com

And don’t forget to subscribe to the Cocktail Investing Podcast on iTunes!

Resources for this podcast:

 

Apple and Disney set to stream

Apple and Disney set to stream


On this episode of the Cocktail Investing Podcast, we are just back from InsideETFs 2019, the trade show for exchange-traded funds and we share some observations and thoughts on what we saw. Some interesting things coming at investors in the coming months, including fixed income ETFs and Tematica’s Chief Investment Officer offers his take on what investors should consider when looking at so-called thematic ETFs. Also, on the podcast, with Apple and Disney both showcasing their streaming subscription services in the coming weeks, we walk through not only what’s expected but the implications as well. If you’re Netflix, you’re going to want to hear this, especially our blockbuster bundling advice for Apple.

We round out the episode talking about the disappointing December Retail Sales report that revealed a month over month decline almost across the board.  As we dig into it, we also touch on a recent Thematic Signal that examines the sharp jump in delinquent auto loan payments. What was expected to be a barn burner holiday shopping season to close out 2018, looking far more like a Middle-Class Squeeze one. With consumer credit card debt now over $1 trillion, it looks like the consumer engine is poised to drop into neutral gear at least in the near-term.

 

Have a topic we should tackle on the podcast, email me at cversace@tematicaresearch.com

 

And don’t forget to subscribe to the Cocktail Investing Podcast on iTunes!

 

 

Resources for this podcast:

 

 

Ep. 95: Short Selling Anyone

Ep. 95: Short Selling Anyone

 

Stocks pop in January, but earnings continue to come down

On this episode of the Cocktail Investing Podcast, we close the books on one of the best Januaries in years for the stock market and trace back the reasons for its inflection point from a painful year-end 2018 for investors. While some issues that plagued the market have rolled back, one, in particular, hasn’t and it’s one investors use to not only value stocks but determine which ones they are willing to pay up for. That includes a brief discussion on earnings from Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Facebook (FB) and others, but also prompts a conversation on short-selling.

We round out the podcast with a few Thematic Signals that confirm why Netflix (NFLX) is right to be worried about Fortnite; how consumer products companies like PepsiCo (PEP), Hershey (HSY), and Proctor & Gamble (PG) are embracing our Clean Living Investing theme; and why China is poised to become the largest retail market on the planet as our Living the Life, New Global Middle-Class and Middle-Class Squeeze investing themes intersect.

Have a topic we should tackle on the podcast, email me at cversace@tematicaresearch.com

And don’t forget to subscribe to the Cocktail Investing Podcast on iTunes!

Resources for this podcast: