Surprises From Market Breadth with Record Margin Debt

Surprises From Market Breadth with Record Margin Debt

As we discussed earlier, heading into the third quarter earnings season, we have above average level of positive guidance in terms of both top line sales and earnings as well as lower-than-average negative earnings guidance. We  pointed out yesterday, however, that an uncomfortable portion of that guidance is driven by gains from a weak dollar […]

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Safety & Security as Markets Wobble

Safety & Security as Markets Wobble

The major equity indices are struggling.Today the Nasdaq posted its third consecutive down Today the Nasdaq posted its third consecutive down day after last Friday’s close marked the fourth consecutive down week for the index. This is now its longest losing streak since May 2016 with only one-third of Nasdaq stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages […]

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Washington’s Attack on Online Advertising Revenues Disguised as Tax Reform

Washington’s Attack on Online Advertising Revenues Disguised as Tax Reform

Investors in some of the high-flying stocks like Facebook and Alphabet that have driven the Nasdaq Composite Index more than 17 percent higher year to date should ponder what an advertising tax could mean to revenues and EPS expectations

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Earnings not boosting Trump Trade, yet markets continue to rise

Earnings not boosting Trump Trade, yet markets continue to rise

Just a little over two weeks ago Donald Trump took the oath of office. Since then, nary a day goes by without President Trump dominating the pages of most every major publication. Love him or hate him, the man certainly knows how to command attention. Yesterday both the Dow and the Nasdaq hit new interday […]

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Pricey markets with rising default rates

Pricey markets with rising default rates

As of Friday’s close, the S&P 500 was 1.9% away from all-time highs with trailing P/E ratio around 19x and forward P/E ratio at 17x, rather pricey market by historical standards. Early last week the Russell 2000 closed above its 200-day moving average for the first time since last August, making for a total of 167 […]

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Volatility – It's here!

Volatility – It's here!

In my firm’s newsletter last month I pointed out that the S&P 500 had been showing some technical signs of weakness, with the index falling below its 50-day moving average and with the 50-day moving average plateauing at that time.  I also pointed out the lack of breadth, with the number of stocks making new 52-week highs declining […]

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Strong Economy, Really?

Strong Economy, Really?

Last week I pointed out that the data coming in wasn’t exactly painting a picture of an increasingly robust economy that would warrant the Fed tightening rates. Last Thursday we learned that initial jobless claims rose again the last week of February to 320,000, significantly above expectations of 295,000. We also learned that US Factory orders fell […]

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Just what data is the Fed seeing?

Just what data is the Fed seeing?

On Monday March 3rd, the NASDAQ closed above 5,000 for the first time since 2000, while the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also reached new record highs, which would lead one to think that things are going pretty darn well. According to Chris Verrone of Strategas Research Partners, 70% of US stocks […]

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