Category Archives: News

Negative earnings  pre-announcements and services data take center stage

Negative earnings pre-announcements and services data take center stage

Today’s Big Picture

Barring any new developments on the trade wars or impeachment inquiry front, investors are focused on the release of September services data for the US and Europe. Has the weakness in manufacturing around the world expanded has into services?

Stocks in Asia again were in the red today on news that the US will be imposing additional tariffs on European Union goods by mid-October. Markets in China and South Korea are closed today for holidays. Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost over 2% as did Australia’s S&P/ASX 200. European equity markets are…

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Thematic Reads: Week of September 30, 2019

Thematic Reads: Week of September 30, 2019

Each week Team Tematica consumes a voracious amount of content as we look to stay on top of the latest data and mine it for tailwind and headwind signals for our 10 investment themes.

Aging of the Population
The global demographic shift towards a more senior population


Cleaner Living
Growing demand for items that claim to be better for you and the planet:


Digital Infrastructure
The Buildout and upgrading of our Networks, Data Storage Facilities, and Equipment


Disruptive Innovators
Business models designed to transform an entire industry and leap-frog over incumbents.


Digital Lifestyle
The increasingly digital landscape that now underpins the entire consumer experience.


Guilty Pleasures

The products and services people will consume no matter the economic environment.


Living the Life

Those things that bridge the gap between want and ability at every socioeconomic level.


Middle-Class Squeeze

Consumers trading down when and where possible or looking to stretch the disposable dollars they do have.


New Global Middle Class

Areas around the world where rising disposable incomes are driving demand for a host of products and services.


Safety & Security

Reflecting the evolving needs across individual, cyber, corporate and homeland security.


What Else We Are Loving

Other reads, experiences, products, services and the like that we enjoyed so much this past week we just had to share

Everything You Need To Know About The Markets Today

Everything You Need To Know About The Markets Today

Markets in Asia struggled today to get any traction following yesterday’s lackluster markets in the US and the weakening data coming out of Europe. The European equity markets are mostly in the green (albeit only slightly) with the exception of the FTSE 100 which is slightly down as of mid-day trading.

The beleaguered Hong Kong stock exchange got a shot in the arm today as the initial public offering of AB InBev’s Asia Pacific business – Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Ltd (1876.HK) – raised $5 billion, the second largest IPO of the year behind Uber’s (UBER) $8.1 billion in May. The company had initially looked to raise closer to $10 billion two months ago but was forced to put the IPO on hold after investors balked at the price. That seems to be a growing trend these days.

Major events for the day will be… READ MORE HERE

Thematic Reads: Week of September 23, 2019

Thematic Reads: Week of September 23, 2019

Each week Team Tematica consumes a voracious amount of content as we look to stay on top of the latest data and mine it for tailwind and headwind signals for our 10 investment themes.

Aging of the Population
The global demographic shift towards a more senior population


Cleaner Living
Growing demand for items that claim to be better for you and the planet:


Digital Infrastructure
The Buildout and upgrading of our Networks, Data Storage Facilities and Equipment


Disruptive Innovators
Business models designed to transform an entire industry and leap-frog over incumbents.


Digital Lifestyle
The increasingly digital landscape that now underpins the entire consumer experience.

 


Guilty Pleasures

The products and services people will consume no matter the economic environment.


Living the Life

Those things that bridge the gap between want and ability at every socioeconomic level.


Middle-Class Squeeze

Consumers trading down when and where possible or looking to stretch the disposable dollars they do have.


New Global Middle Class

Areas around the world where rising disposable incomes are driving demand for a host of products and services.


Safety & Security

Reflecting the evolving needs across individual, cyber, corporate and homeland security.


What Else We Are Loving

Other reads, experiences, products, services and the like that we enjoyed so much this past week we just had to share

Thematic Reads: Week of September 16, 2019

Thematic Reads: Week of September 16, 2019

Each week Team Tematica consumes a voracious amount of content as we look to stay on top of the latest data and mine it for tailwind and headwind signals for our 10 investment themes.

Aging of the Population
The global demographic shift towards a more senior population


Cleaner Living
Growing demand for items that claim to be better for you and the planet:


Digital Infrastructure
The Buildout and upgrading of our Networks, Data Storage Facilities and Equipment


Disruptive Innovators
Business models designed to transform an entire industry and leap-frog over incumbents.


Digital Lifestyle
The increasingly digital landscape that now underpins the entire consumer experience.


Guilty Pleasures

The products and services people will consume no matter the economic environment.


Living the Life

Those things that bridge the gap between want and ability at every socioeconomic level.


MiddleClass Squeeze

Consumers trading down when and where possible or looking to stretch the disposable dollars they do have.


Safety & Security

Reflecting the evolving needs across individual, cyber, corporate and homeland security.


What Else We Are Loving

Other reads, experiences, products, services and the like that we enjoyed so much this past week we just had to share

Going cashless may break the law?

Going cashless may break the law?

Here at Tematica, one of the things we like more than anyone of our investing themes is when two or more of them intersect as it forms a super-theme of sorts. We’ve seen numerous examples over the last several quarters, but there are also times when the tailwind of one of our themes presents a headwind for another. We are seeing that unfold between the cashless consumption aspect of our Digital Lifestyle investing theme and our Middle Class Squeeze and Safety & Security ones.

There are benefits to be had with the move by business to digital commerce…

Some retailers are cutting out cash to speed up transactions, reduce the risk of theft and accommodate the increased use of credit and debit cards, as well as digital wallets like Apple Pay and Google Pay, to purchase services and products.

… and there are times when having to pay only by cash can be a hassle, especially if you’ve gotten used to paying with a swipe or a tap. There are also those folks that are tapping their credit cards harder than others as they look to make ends meet. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s latest Household Debt and Credit Report, consumer household debt balances have been on the rise for five years and quarterly increases continued on a consecutive basis, bringing the second quarter 2019 total to $192 billion.

But as the below excerpts note, not everyone in the entire population is able to participate in cashless consumption be it because they lack a debit or credit card. Others have those but are wary about leaving a digital trail that could be exploited by cyber attackers and compromise their privacy.

But with 6.5% of U.S. households in 2017 not having bank accounts, according to the FDIC, and 18.7% having accounts but also using financial services outside of insured institutions, some are pushing back on the trend

But it’s not just those without credit and debit cards who may balk at being told they can’t use cash. In an era when data breaches have occurred at institutions such as Capital One and credit rating agency Equifax, some consumers worry that cashless payments can infringe on their privacy.

“You do hear a good portion of people saying ‘Once we move to this cashless economy, there is a digital trail for every single one of my purchases, and I’m not entirely comfortable with that,’’’ Santana says. “And there’s a possibility there could be a data breach where your information gets compromised. The probability of a data breach happening is very low, but it is isn’t zero.”

Interestingly enough, despite these headwinds, the tailwind for cashless consumption continues to blow as evidenced by the continued decline in using cash.

Square Inc. found that four years ago, shoppers used cash for 46% of purchases that were less than $20. But this year, shoppers used cash for 37% of transactions in the same price range.

 And while there may be some overlap in the user numbers, earlier this year Paypal’s (PYPL) Venmo reported 40 million users that completed one transaction in the prior 12 months, while Square reported 15 million Square (SQ) Cash App users for “monthly actives (at least one transaction in the past month).” While those numbers are larger than some digital user figures at banks — Bank of America (BAC) reported that its active base of digital users was 37 million in the March 2019 quarter and for the same period Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) had 29.8 million active digital users – during the June 2019 quarter Apple (AAPL) Apple’s Apple Pay completed nearly 1 billion transactions per month, nearly transaction levels in the year-ago quarter.

What those figures tell us is in today’s increasingly connected world filled with more consumers embracing digital shopping and mobile ordering, for both convenience and in many cases better affordable prices, we will likely see a continued movement away from cash usage… but we may not see the use of cash disappear just yet. In thematic speak, two powerful tailwinds may be impeded by one headwind, but that will likely only slow the impact, not eliminate it. 

As that shift away from cash continues, odds are we will see more companies embrace our Disruptive Innovators tailwind and bring new solutions to market. One such company is Tematica Select List resident USA Technologies (USAT) that is bringing mobile payments to vending machines and unattended retail.

Another is the cash to debit card ReadyStation kiosk found at the now cashless Mercedes Benz stadium in Atlanta. The kiosk by ReadyCard that converts cash to a prepaid debit card that can be used anywhere VISA is accepted. That is but one solution that could thwart regulatory headwinds, especially if like the ReadyStation kiosk the resulting debit card is fee free.

From Philadelphia to San Francisco, several cities and states have passed or are considering bills that prohibit retailers from refusing to accept cash, a policy they say shuts out the millions of Americans who don’t have a bank account, lack credit cards or don’t have photo identification. 

Another reminder that where there is a pain point, solutions tend to result.

Source: Going cashless? If you do in these cities, you’re breaking the law

Thematic Reads: Week of September 9, 2019

Thematic Reads: Week of September 9, 2019

Each week Team Tematica consumes a voracious amount of content as we look to stay on top of the latest data and mine it for tailwind and headwind signals for our 10 investment themes.

Aging of the Population
The global demographic shift towards a more senior population


Cleaner Living
Growing demand for items that claim to be better for you and the planet:


Digital Infrastructure
The Buildout and upgrading of our Networks, Data Storage Facilities and Equipment


Disruptive Innovators
Business models designed to transform an entire industry and leap-frog over incumbents.


Digital Lifestyle
The increasingly digital landscape that now underpins the entire consumer experience.


Guilty Pleasures

The products and services people will consume no matter the economic environment.


Living the Life

Those things that bridge the gap between want and ability at every socioeconomic level.


MiddleClass Squeeze

Consumers trading down when and where possible or looking to stretch the disposable dollars they do have.


New Global Middle Class

Areas around the world where rising disposable incomes are driving demand for a host of products and services.


Safety & Security

Reflecting the evolving needs across individual, cyber, corporate and homeland security.


What Else We Are Loving

Other reads, experiences, products, services and the like that we enjoyed so much this past week we just had to share

Thematic Reading: Week of August 12, 2019

Thematic Reading: Week of August 12, 2019

Each week Team Tematica consumes a voracious amount of content as we look to stay on top of the latest data and mine it for tailwind and headwind signals for our 10 investment themes. For those that are less familiar with our investment themes, we’d suggest you visit or in some cases revisit this before proceeding further.

Below we’ve cobbled together a subset of the articles that caught our thematic eye over the last several days. As you can see this list not only touch on several aspects of our investment themes but the sources of these articles are rather diverse as well. In our view, this confirms not only the pervasive nature of our investment themes but the degree to which they are recognizable in the world around us, provided that one is seeing, listening and thinking thematically.

Cleaner Living cleans up in July

Cleaner Living cleans up in July

July was a bit of a roller coaster ride for the domestic stock market, as it grappled with the ongoing U.S.-China trade war, economic data that points to a slowing global economy and the expected interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the end of the month. For the month in full, each of the major stock market indexes finished higher month-over-month, adding to their gains for the year, but exited the month below their July highs. The same was true for the Tematica Research Cleaner Living Index, which rose 1.2% in July, continuing its sharp June rebound. 

Driving the July performance for the Cleaner Living Index were shares of Beyond Meat (BYND) and Primo Water Corp. (PRMW), both of which climbed more than 20% during the month. Those moves reflect the continued expansion of Beyond Meat’s meatless protein products, a growing number of partnerships and expanding consumer awareness of water quality. That last topic was a key conversation point in our recent Thematic Signals podcast conversation with Dr. Roy Speiser. The index’s July performance also benefitted from double-digit gains at Simply Good Foods (SMPL), the company that leverages the Atkins brand in the healthy snack market, Trex (TREX) and Fresh del Monte Produce (FDP). 

Offsetting those gains were continued declines at Tenneco Inc. (TEN). The company’s clean air solutions have been impacted by the combination of a slowing global economy, a weakening of the auto market and on-going US-China trade concerns. Other notable decliners with the index for the month of July included Sprouts Farmers Markets (SAFM) and Renewable Energy Group (REGI). Sprouts continues to confront the traditional grocery chains expanding their natural, organic and healthier for you product offerings. Cleaner fuel company Renewable Energy Group on the other hand is facing falling oil prices, making competing solutions increasingly affordable. 

As we are starting to wind down the 2019 June-quarter earnings season, coming into this week more than three-quarters of the S&P 500 group of companies had reported those quarterly figures. Tallying those results, we’ve seen earnings-per-share expectations for the current quarter fall. The result is that full year 2019 earnings per share expectations for that cohort of 500 companies has risen just 2.7%, compared to 2018. Before too long, investors will begin to focus on 2020 growth prospects, and current expectations have the S&P 500 group of companies growing their collective earnings by 10.8% year over year in 2020. 

By comparison, the Cleaner Living index constituent base is slated to grow its collective earnings by nearly 30% in 2020. That’s significantly faster than the expected year over year EPS growth of 6%-12% in 2020 for the consumer discretionary, consumer staple and utility segments tallied by FactSet. Arguably the difference in those EPS growth rates reflects the accelerating shift by consumers toward natural, organic and healthier for you solutions that speaks to the structural shift captured by Tematica’s Cleaner Living investment theme and index. 

While we very much like the overall vector and velocity of the Cleaner Living constituent base and the collective earnings-per-share growth to be had in the coming quarters, we recognize at least in the near-term the overall market and subsequently the Cleaner Living index will likely be impacted by U.S.-China trade developments, the speed of the global economy and changes in monetary policy from the world’s major central banks.

Signals for Tematica’s Cleaner Living investment theme & the Cleaner Living Index


Performance for the Tematica Research Cleaner Living Index (CLNR) is available through Bloomberg, Reuters, FactSet, and other data aggregators, as well as the Tematica Research website. The index is currenty available for licensing for the use in a variety of exchange traded products or as a data overlay in portfolio screening and management. The Tematica Research Cleaner Living Index is being calculated by Indxx.