Athleisure movement offers opportunity for this position

Athleisure movement offers opportunity for this position

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Ratings changes included in this dated post

  • Buy” rating on the Nike (NKE) July $65 calls (NKE160715C00065000) that last traded at $2.60 and set a protective stop at $1.60.

In the last 24 hours, we’ve been hit with several items that have solidified the view the global economy is slowing.

  • China’s official Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 49.0 in February, marking the lowest reading since November 2011.
  • The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing PMI February reading for China dropped to 48.0, contracting for the 12th straight month.
  • China’s services sector continued to expand in February, but at its slowest pace since late 2008.
  • Euro-zone factory activity expanded at its weakest pace during the last year in February, with its manufacturing PMI falling to 51.2 in from 52.3 in January.
  • Japan’s February PMI hit at 50.1 in February, down from 52.3 in January.

In addition to the slowing top-line figures, across the board February orders declined — implying conditions are not poised to improve much, if at all, in March. These data points help explain why China cut its reserve requirements by 50 basis points yesterday. European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi has commented that he will do what is necessary to help come the next ECB meeting in March.

Fed to be a no-show this month

It increasingly seems like a foregone conclusion that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates untouched at its next policy meeting (March 15-16) given the data we’ve been getting the last few months and the increasing visibility of Fed heads beside Fed Chair Janet Yellen spouting “downside risks to the U.S. economic outlook.” To those of us who have been watching the data unfold these last few months, this is hardly a revelation.

Even with the high probability the Fed will skip any policy moves and likely signal it will remain data dependent in the coming months, the rate cut in China, coupled with the increasing likelihood of more ECB stimulus, means the U.S. dollar will continue to be strong, if not strengthen further. The bad news is it means companies once again will espouse about currency headwinds in about six weeks when March-quarter earnings kick off. If you ask me, it sounds like current-quarter earnings will be a lot like the movie Groundhog Day — slowing economic growth, currency headwinds and negative earnings revisions… and repeat.

As such, we will continue to tread cautiously and look to employ all of the trading strategies at our disposal. Some exciting news on what that means going forward is explained in a few paragraphs, after my new Nike ([stock_quote symbol=”NKE”]) call recommendation below.

Good news for UUP calls

So what’s the good news? Well, the strong or strengthening dollar that is likely to ensue following the ECB meeting will benefit our PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP) June $25 calls. That position traded up nicely after yesterday’s China move and our June strike date leaves ample room to capture any and all moves by the ECB through then. You should continue to keep these UUP calls in your portfolio.

New product chatter boosts Apple calls

As expected, the chatter has begun to build ahead of the now-expected late March event at which Apple ([stock_quote symbol=”AAPL”) is predicted to take the wraps off several updated products. So far, speculation points to a new iPhone model and a new iPad as well. Over the years, these events have increasingly become a matter of “buy the rumor, sell the news,” if only because at times expectations have gotten ridiculously high as rumormongering builds and we draw closer to the actual events.

This looks to be the case this time and Apple shares have started to rebound with that growing chatter, including a nice 30% pop today, in our AAPL March $100 calls. With a few weeks to go until the event and until these calls expire, you should continue to keep them among your holdings.

More monetization ahead at Facebook

Coming out of Mobile World Congress, there was much buzz about virtual reality (VR) hardware. If you watched Sunday night’s Oscar ceremony, you would have seen actor William H. Macy in a funny Samsung commercial sporting Facebook’s VR goggles. Given its acquisiton of virtual reality company Oculus, there was much news about what Connected Society company Facebook may do in the coming months. While much attention was on that, what caught my eye was that Facebook is openly talking about monetizing its messenger apps, including the standalone Messenger app that is linked to Facebook, as well as WhatsApp, a popular service outside of the United States. We’ve already seen the pronounced impact monetizing Facebook and Instagram has had for FB’s revenues and earnings, and this latest effort should only add to that. We’re down modestly in our FB April $110 calls, but with the shares currently trading above $109, these FB calls remain a buy at current levels.

Adding a positon in Nike

As we head into the spring season, we will see a pronounced pickup in athletic activities. True enough, this will apply to children’s sports, as well as those for tweens, teens and college athletics. It also is driven by more and more people seeking to shed pounds and to fend off becoming part of what I call the Fattening of the Population.

There is also the continued shift toward “athleisure” that has companies such as Under Armour ([stock_quote symbol=”UA”]) and Nike ([stock_quote symbol=”NKE”]) targeting casualwear in general, and women’s athletic apparel in particular, as well as athletic footwear. On last week’s earnings call, Foot Locker ([stock_quote symbol=”FL”]) raved about the product pipeline it has seen from these companies.

We also have March Madness and, before too long, the summer Olympics. Helping augment those top-line prospects, the drop in oil and cotton prices should help drive margins at Nike and Under Armour.

All of this implies upside to be had in both NKE and UA shares. When we turn our gaze to call options for those two companies, however, we find there is indeed a difference. Simply put, UA’s call options are very thinly traded. All else being equal between the two, this means we want to own NKE calls. To capture the spring into summer sports season as well as the upcoming Olympics, the call options to add to your holdings are the Nike (NKE) July $65 calls (NKE160715C00065000), which last traded at $2.60 and expire July 15. Given my comments about about the likelihood of Groundhog Day-like market action in the coming months, be sure to set a protective stop at $1.60. This affords us ample room to scale into the position should a turbulent market rear its head.

About the Author

Chris Versace, Chief Investment Officer
I'm the Chief Investment Officer of Tematica Research and editor of Tematica Investing newsletter. All of that capitalizes on my near 20 years in the investment industry, nearly all of it breaking down industries and recommending stocks. In that time, I've been ranked an All Star Analyst by Zacks Investment Research and my efforts in analyzing industries, companies and equities have been recognized by both Institutional Investor and Thomson Reuters’ StarMine Monitor. In my travels, I've covered cyclicals, tech and more, which gives me a different vantage point, one that uses not only an ecosystem or food chain perspective, but one that also examines demographics, economics, psychographics and more when formulating my investment views. The question I most often get is "Are you related to…."

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