Everything You Need To Know About The Markets Today

Everything You Need To Know About The Markets Today

Markets in Asia struggled today to get any traction following yesterday’s lackluster markets in the US and the weakening data coming out of Europe. The European equity markets are mostly in the green (albeit only slightly) with the exception of the FTSE 100 which is slightly down as of mid-day trading.

The beleaguered Hong Kong stock exchange got a shot in the arm today as the initial public offering of AB InBev’s Asia Pacific business – Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Ltd (1876.HK) – raised $5 billion, the second largest IPO of the year behind Uber’s (UBER) $8.1 billion in May. The company had initially looked to raise closer to $10 billion two months ago but was forced to put the IPO on hold after investors balked at the price. That seems to be a growing trend these days.

Major events for the day will be… READ MORE HERE

Weekly Issue: Looking for Trump-Proof Companies

Weekly Issue: Looking for Trump-Proof Companies

We exited last week with the market realizing there was more bark than bite associated with President Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs. That period of relative calm, however, was short-lived as the uncertainty resumed in Washington yesterday in the form of changeups in the administration with Trump letting go Secretary of State Rex Tillerson just after agreeing to talks with North Korea, and more saber rattling with trade actions against China for technology, apparel, and other imports. This also follows Trump’s intervention in the proposed takeover of Qualcomm (QCOM) by competitor Broadcom (BRCM).

While many an investor will focus on the “new” volatility in the market, I’ll continue to use our thematic lens to look for companies that are “Trump-Proof” in the short-term. That’s not a political statement, but rather a reflection of the reality that the modus operandi of President Trump and his Twitter habit often cause significant swings in the market as the media attempts to digest and interpret his comments.

How will we find these so-called Trump-proof companies? By continuing to use our thematic lens to uncover well-positioned companies that are benefitting from thematic tailwinds that alter the existing playing field, regardless of the latest noise from Washington politicians.

At least for now, volatility is back in vogue and that is bound to drive headlines and other noise. I’ll continue to focus on the data, and if you read this week’s Monday Morning Kickoff you know we are in the midst of a whopper of a data week. While the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February was in line with expectations, and on a year over year basis core rose 1.8% — the same as in January — which should take some wind out of the inflation mongers. This morning we have the February Retail Sales report, which in my view should once again serve up confirming data for our positions in Amazon (AMZN) and Costco Wholesale (COST), which continue to benefit from our Connected Society and Cash-strapped Consumer investing themes.  Later in the week, the February reading on Industrial Production should confirm the demands that are exacerbating the current heavy truck shortage here in the U.S. – good news for the Paccar (PCAR)shares on the Tematica Investing Select List.

 

 

An Update on Our Once Star Performer, Universal Display (OLED)

A few weeks ago, I shared an update on Universal Display (OLED) shares, which have been essentially treading water following the company’s December quarter results. Later today, the management team will be presenting at the Susquehanna’s Seventh Annual Semi, Storage & Tech Conference. Odds are the management team will reiterate its view on market digesting the organic light emitting diode capacity additions made over the last several quarters, but I expect they will also describe the growing number of applications that will come on stream in the next 3-6 quarters.  As of late February, Susquehanna had a positive rating on OLED shares with a price target of $200 and I suspect they will have some bullish comments following today’s presentation.

 

Considering the ripples to be had with the latest Connected Society victim, Toys R Us

Over the weekend we were reminded of the situation facing many brick & mortar retailers that are failing to adapt their business to ride our Connected Society investing theme. I’m referring to toy and game retailer Toys R Us, the one-time Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) or Home Depot (HD) of its industry. Like several sporting goods retailers and electronic & appliance retailers such as Sports Authority, Sports Chalet, and HH Gregg that have gone belly up, if Toys R Us doesn’t get a last-minute lifeline or find a buyer it will likely file Chapter 7.

It’s been a rocky road for the one-time toy supermarket company as it entered bankruptcy in September, aiming to emerge with a leaner business model and more manageable debt. The company obtained a new $3.1 billion loan to keep the stores open during the turnaround effort, but results worsened more than expected during the holidays, casting doubt on the chain’s viability. The company entered this year with more than 800 stores in the U.S. — under both the Toys “R” Us and Babies “R” Us brands, but by January, it announced the shuttering of 180 locations.

The pending bankruptcy to be had at Toys R Us is but the latest in the retail industry, but it’s not likely to be the last. Claire’s Stores Inc., the fashion accessories chain with a debt load of $2 billion, is also preparing to file for bankruptcy in the coming weeks as is Walking Co. Holdings Inc.

What these all have in common is the increasing shift by consumers to digital commerce and the growing reliance on retailers for what is termed the direct to consumer (D2C) business model. Certain branded apparel, footwear, and other consumer product companies, like Nike (NKE) have embraced Amazon’s formidable logistics capabilities and this has benefitted our United Parcel Service (UPS) shares. As we have said before, and we recognize it sounds rather simplistic, when you order products online they have to get to where they are being sent. Hello UPS!

Now let’s consider the ripple effect of the pending Toys R Us bankruptcy.

When events such as this occur, there is a liquidation effect and a subsequent void. As we saw when Sports Authority went bankrupt, the businesses at Nike and Under Armour (UAA) were impacted by liquidation sales in the short term. At the same time, both lost the recurring sales associated with Sports Authority. Odds are we will see the same happen with Toys R Us with companies like Mattel (MAT) and Hasbro (HAS) taking it on the chin. In my view these companies are already struggling as teens, tweens and kids of all ages shift to digital games, apps and e-gaming, which are aspects of our Connected Society and Content

In my view these companies are already struggling as teens, tweens and kids of all ages shift to digital games, apps and e-gaming, which are aspects of our Connected Society and Content is King themes. When was the last time you saw an elementary schooler play with Ken or Barbie? More likely they are on an iPad or Microsoft (MSFT) Xbox while their older siblings are playing the new craze sweeping the nation – Fortnite. And yes, that it appears the rumors are true and Fornite will soon be available across Apple’s iDevices.

Looking at the financial performance of Mattel, not even the all mighty Star Wars franchise could save them from delivering declining revenue and earnings this past holiday shopping season. On the liquidation front, we are likely to see the toys businesses at Target (TGT) as well as Walmart (WMT) take the brunt of the blow. But here too this is likely just another hit as these two retailers have already been dealing with falling revenue at Mattel and Hasbro. Walmart is the largest customer for Mattel and Hasbro, accounting for about 20% of total sales for each toy maker. Both toy companies get nearly 10% of their revenue from Target too.

One of the investing strategies that I employ with the Select List is “buy the bullets, not the guns” which refers to buying well-positioned suppliers that serve a variety of customers. In situations like what we are seeing in the brick & mortar retail sector, we can turn that strategy upside down and uncover those companies, like Mattel and Hasbro, that we as investors should avoid given the multiple direct and indirect headwinds they are currently facing or about to.

 

Big Five Sporting Goods is no sporting chance without e-commerce

Big Five Sporting Goods is no sporting chance without e-commerce

You’ve probably noticed that retailers are doing all they can to clear out winter-related items as they prepare for the spring season. It means sales, sales, sales, and in some cases compressed margins. Walk through almost any mall, and you’ll see signs for buy one get one free, buy one get the next one 50% off, and so on.

When we think of spring, most of us tend to think of spring break and the start of spring sports, particularly for school age kids. Why that age? Because they tend to grow, and that means each year new items ranging from athletic shoes, cleats, pants, shirts, jerseys, helmets, and other pieces of athletic wear tend to be bought.

Notice I said usually. In 2017, according to Census Bureau data found in the December Retail Sales Report, sales at sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores were unchanged in the December quarter and fell 3.4% for the year in full. One of those reasons is actually good news for our Amazon (AMZN) shares as non-store retail sales rose 12.7% year over year in December and was up 10% for all of 2017 compared to 2016. The sporting goods category wasn’t the only one to be hit by the shift to digital commerce – for perspective, compared to retail sales (excluding food and auto sales) that rose 4.4% in 2017, digital sales rose nearly 2.3x faster. As we like to say at Tematica, it’s all about connecting the data dots and ahead of Amazon’s December quarter results those retail data points were rather revealing.

The question we have to ponder is whether people are not buying athletic equipment for their kids or, if they are shifting where they buy it — from sporting goods stores like Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) to big box retailers like Target (TGT), Walmart (WMT), Costco Wholesale (COST) and discount retailers, as well as online at Amazon (AMZN).

We’re also seeing another factor on the competitive landscape: Foot Locker (FL) and Finish Line (FINL) move to expand from athletic footwear into athletic wear. Those factors led to several sporting good chains, such as Sports Authority, Sports Chalet, MC Sports and others, to file for bankruptcy.

 

And that brings us to Big 5 Sporting Goods (BGFV)

For those unfamiliar with the company, at the end of 2017 it operated 435 stores in 11 states and offered athletic shoes, apparel and accessories, as well as a broad selection of athletic equipment for team sports, fitness, camping, hunting, fishing, tennis, golf, winter and summer recreation and roller sports. Pretty much a full- service sporting goods store complete with a digital platform as well.

Has Big Five been spared the pain that has been felt in the sporting goods industry?

In a word, no, and we can say this because earlier this month it reported disappointing fourth-quarter 2017 sales that included same-store sales falling 9.4%. Those top line results led the company to revise its bottom line results for the quarter into the red. While some of this can be attributed to mild December temperatures that led to weak demand for cold weather products, the reality is Big Five’s same store sales excluding winter-related and firearm-related products were down low-single digits for the quarter. This tells us that something else is afoot, and odds are it’s the increasingly competitive landscape.

In response to that disappointing fourth-quarter 2017 pre-announcement, Big Five Sporting Goods shares have slumped some 27% since the start of 2018. And this leads us to the obvious question – should we be interested in BGFV shares at current levels?

At the current share price, based on historic multiples and current earnings expectations of $0.55-$0.56 per share last year and this year vs. $0.82 per share in 2016, there’s upside to $6.00-$6.25 per share. Not exactly upside enough to get excited for a business that is being challenged and expected to deliver contracting revenue in the first half of 2018.

Odds are BGFV shares will get cheaper before they get expensive, and while that could make them tempting to some, we’ll take a pass at least until the company’s e-commerce efforts become material to its overall revenue and profit. Based on what I heard on the company’s last earnings call, it’s going to be some time until that happens…if it does…  that means the company is poised to be trapped in the headwind of our Connected Society investing theme. In other words, more pain as Amazon and even Walmart continue to rise the tailwind of that theme to revenue and profits.

Using Market Flip Flops to Scale Several Positions and Add a New One As Well

Using Market Flip Flops to Scale Several Positions and Add a New One As Well

A hearty welcome back!

The stock market is moving a little faster and more volatile over the last few days, far different than what we saw through most of the summer. Inside this issue we recap the drivers for the flip-flopping — it’s a technical term, trust us 😉 — of the market and what’s  likely to be on investor radars next.

While some see pain as the market has fallen 2.5 to 2.7 percent depending on the index one is looking at, we see better prices for recently added positions like Sherwin Williams (SHW) and United Natural Foods (UNFI)even though their thematic tailwinds continue to blow. We’re doubling down on these two names and another — details inside.

We’re issuing a Buy rating on speciality contractor Dycom Industries (DY)and placing it on the Tematica Select List with a $115 price target, which offers more than 35% upside from last night’s closing price. While you may read speciality contractor and have a preconceived thought or two, Dycom is a crucial part in working with AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ) and Comcast (CMCSA)in expanding their existing networks and deploying the next and future generations. That makes Dycom a Connected Society contractor in our eyes. More details inside.

Any normal issue would not be complete without some updates on existing Tematica Select List positions. Because we’ve been away, we’ve got more than a few and that’s pushing this issue to the max (or at least 18 pages). All the latest and greatest, is just a click away.

You can click below to download the full report.

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As food prices drop we make a move on a Foods with Integrity thematic opportunity

As food prices drop we make a move on a Foods with Integrity thematic opportunity

In this week’s edition of Tematica Investing:

  • Download Tematica InvestingWe are issuing a Buy on shares of United Natural Foods (UNFI) as part of our Food with Integrity investing theme. Our price target is $65, which offers more than 35 percent upside. We intend to build this position size over time and as such we are holding off issuing a stop loss recommendation at this time.  Read full report >>
  • We’ve got several Tematica Select List updates to share, including
    • AT&T (T)
    • CalAmp Corp. (CAMP)
    • Nike (NKE)
    • Under Armour (UA)
    • And several others. Read More . . .
  • Heads up! Just as you’ll be coasting into the last days of summer, after adding 5 new positions in as many weeks we too will be taking some time off to recharge our batteries before the final push for 2016 begins. So, there will not be an issue on Wednesday, September 7. Your next issue of Tematica Investing will be on September 14. 

 

You can click below to download the full report.

 

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Housing and remodeling data rebounds, so we make another Rise-Fall of Middle Class move

Housing and remodeling data rebounds, so we make another Rise-Fall of Middle Class move

  • While the market waits for Yellen and Draghi to speak at the Kansas City Fed’s 40th Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming later this week, we continue to low expectations for anything new being said at the event. Read More >>
  • A pick up in New Home Sales bodes well for the Tematica Select List position in Sherwin Williams (SHW). We continue to rate SHW shares a Buy, and our price target remains $350. Read More >>
  • We are issuing a Buy on shares of Whirlpool Corp. (WHR) as part of our Rise & Fall of the Middle Class investing theme with a $232 price target. Much like Sherwin Williams, Whirlpool stands to benefit from robust repair & remodel spending over the next few years. Read More >>
  • Updates Updates Updates on Amazon (AMZN), CalAmp (CAMP), Under Armor (UA) and Nike (NKE) shares. Read More >>
You can click below to download the full report.

 

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Getting this nursing stock off the bench and into the game

Getting this nursing stock off the bench and into the game

Continually throughout the past several weeks, we’ve shared our concern about the outlook for second half earnings for the S&P 500 group of companies relative to expectations — probably more than you’ve wanted to hear!

We continue to see those forecasts as overly robust, particularly with the stock market seemingly hitting new record highs every other day. Our view has been that there is more downside risk to be had as earnings expectations for the back half of 2016 get resized and reset.

Of course, as those expectations are reset, it can mean opportunity — opportunity for taking positions in companies we see as well-positioned from a thematic perspective, but at better prices than just a few weeks ago. We saw that last week with CalAmp Corp (CAMP), and we see it again this week with (AHS) AMN Healthcare Services.

 

In this week’s Tematica Investing:

  • We are taking advantage of a 23 percent drop in (AHS) AMN Healthcare Services shares to take them off the bench get them in the game — moving them from the Tematica Contender list to the Tematica Select List. Read More >>
  • With Back-to-School season more than in full swing, we dive into the intricacies of teen shopping habits and how they impact various positions across several of our themes, including Amazon (AMZN), Nike (NKE), Under Armour (UA) and what are probably the obvious themes and the not-so-obvious as well.  Read More >>

 

You can click below to download the full report.

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It’s 11am, do you know where your car is? If not the stock we’re adding this week probably does

It’s 11am, do you know where your car is? If not the stock we’re adding this week probably does

Last week, as the latest issue of Tematica Investing was being delivered to you, I was literally being wheeled into the operating room for knee surgery. It was nothing too major, just the repair of a small meniscus tear I suffered on the basketball court. Fortunately for you (and for the performance of the Tematica Select List) the issue was completed early that morning — well in advance of that surgery — as I was pretty loopy afterwards!

A week later, things are feeling pretty good, but I am looking forward to getting the stitches out so I can get back in the pool and get some relief from the extra humid conditions here in DC this week!

 

In this week’s Tematica Investing:

 

  • We’re placing shares of CalAmp Corp. (CAMP) on the Tematica Select List as part of our Connected Society investing theme with a Buy rating and a $21 price target. We would be comfortable adding the shares up to $17.50, at which point we see upside of 20% vs. the current 35% upside to be had at the last night’s closing share price. Read More >>
  • Updates on Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Physicians Realty Trust (DOC), Nike (NKE) and Under Armour (UA). Read More >>
  • We also dig into where we are with our position in The Walt Disney Co. (DIS) after their earnings announcement last night. Hint, we need to have the same patience as a the line at Space Mountain. Read More >>
  • Check your accounts! Dividend payments have been made over the last few days from Starbucks (SBUX) an PetMeds Express (PETS)Read More >>

You can click below to download the full report.
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Adding a splash of color to Rise & Fall of Middle Class

Adding a splash of color to Rise & Fall of Middle Class

Welcome to another weekly issue of the Weekly Tematica Investing. It’s been a wild week of market moves, earnings reports and economic data all at once.

In addition to my regular visits with the Charles Payne on his Making Money with Charles Payne show on Fox Business, I had an opportunity to sit down with the folks at Boom-Bust on RT (the new home of The Larry King Show) to dig deep into our thematic-driven approach and discuss why most investors are investing wrong. That of course is NOT the case with us!

You can click on the image below to watch the whole interview.

In this week’s Tematica Investing:

  • Closing the books on July, the Tematica Select List had a number of positions that handily outperformed the S&P 500, which rose 3.6% for the month. Read More >>
  • We are issuing a Buy rating paint and coatings company Sherwin Williams (SHW) with a $350 price target as we add a splash of color to our Rise & Fall of the Middle Class investing theme. This is a new position and we are holding off with a protective stop loss for now. Read More >>
  • Updates, Updates, Updates – Recapping earnings from Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), PetMeds Express (PETS) and Under Armour (UA). Read More >>
  • Housekeeping! – Here’s what we’re watching when Physicians Realty Trust (DOC) and Walt Disney (DIS) report quarterly earnings. Read More >>

You can click below to download the full report.
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☀ During this summer heatwave, what better move to make than this?

☀ During this summer heatwave, what better move to make than this?

Dog in front of fanHere at Tematica Research, just outside of Washington, DC, we are “enjoying” a good old fashion summer heatwave. The hottest summer in four years, yesterday marked the 6th straight day of highs at or above 90 degrees.

Now for those in the Midwest and Southwest, you’re probably thinking, that’s nothing!

The magic we have here in DC to throw into the mix of steamy temperatures is the fact that the city is built on what was once swamp land, and with that comes humidity — lots of it! So temps in the 90’s can easily climb up into the 105 degree heat index range, and with that comes that little bead of sweat that starts on the back of your neck, rolls down between your shoulder blades, further down to your lower back and then . . . well, you know where that story is going.

All of this reminds us of what put athletic apparel manufacturer Under Armour (UA) on the map — moisture-wicking synthetic fabric. The company that started in the basement of CEO Kevin Plank’s grandmother in 1996, has grown into a nearly $4 billion company that specializes in making sure all that sweat we humans produce is evaporated away rather than ending up where the sun don’t shine.

The heatwave across much of the country allows for this cheeky opening narrative to this story. The real reason we’re talking about Under Armour now is, given the pull-back in shares after the company’s 2nd quarter earnings announcement, we’re using the opportunity to make a move and add them to the Tematica Select List.

In this week’s Tematica Investing:

  • We are adding Under Armour (UA) shares to the Tematica Select List as part of our Rise & Fall investing theme, with a $55 price target. There is no recommended protective stop loss at this time.
  • Given the robust movie slate for 2H 2016, we are keeping Content is King Regal Entertainment (RGC) shares on the Tematica Select List, despite a modest $0.01 per share earnings miss for the June quarter.
  • We have earnings from Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) later this week, and we preview what’s expected and what we’ll be looking for in those reports.
  • Starbucks is added to Goldman’s Conviction List, more confirmation for our position in the coffee giant.
  • AT&T (T) loses the Yahoo! (YHOO) bid to Verizon (VZ), and we are rather happy with that.

You can click below to download the full report.

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