All Eyes On The September Jobs Report

All Eyes On The September Jobs Report

Today’s Big Picture

US market futures point to a modestly lower open Friday morning. After the disappointing manufacturing and services data this week, all eyes will be on today’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, which is expected to see 145,000 jobs added in September, up from 130,000 in August with the unemployment rate holding at 3.7% and wages gaining +0.2%. Keep in mind that the General Motors (GM) strike will add some confusion to the data as striking workers aren’t counted in payrolls.

We’ll also be looking for any updates on the previous downward revisions to payrolls. In August the BLS cut job gain estimates for 2018 and early 2019 by about 500,000, the largest such downward revision in the past decade. Overall we’ve seen downward revisions for around 17 months – a sure sign that labor market dynamics ...

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September’s Start Gives Investors Whiplash

September’s Start Gives Investors Whiplash

The markets closed last week in a bullish mood on the news that (stop me if you’ve heard this one before) the US and China will be back at the negotiating table in October. You don’t say! Oh but this time we have schedules and a list of attendees so it is totally different.

h/t @StockCats

The past three days of bullishness have been in sharp contrast to the chaos of August during which global stock markets lost around $3 trillion in market cap thanks to the ongoing trade wars and more data pointing to global slowing. As of Friday’s close, over the past year, the S&P 500 is up 3.7%, the Nasdaq 2.5%, Dow Jones Industrial Average up 3.4%, the NYSE Composite Index up 0.17% and the Russell 2000 is down -12.1%. During August 2,930 acted as a resistance level for the S&P 500 multiple times, but the index managed to break through that level last week, which is typically a bullish signal.

As the markets have taken an immediate about-face on the reignited hopes for progress in the trade wars, we’ve seen a profound flip-flop in equity performance which gave many a portfolio whiplash.

  • Those stocks with the lowest P/E ratios that were pummeled in August are up an average of 5.3% since last Tuesday’s close.
  • The stocks that held up best in August are barely breakeven over the final three trading days last week while those that were soundly beaten down in August are up the most so far in September.
  • Stocks with the most international revenue exposure are materially outperforming those with primarily domestic revenue exposure.

While corporate buybacks have been a major source of support for share prices in recent years, corporate insiders have been big sellers in 2019 selling an average of $600 million worth of stock every trading day in August, per TrimTabs Investment Research. Insider selling has totaled over $10 billion in five out of the first eight months of 2019. The only other time we’ve seen so much insider selling was in 2006 and 2007.

Bonds

August saw an additional $3 trillion of bonds drop into negative territory. We are now up to $17 trillion in negative-yielding bonds globally, with $1 trillion of that corporate bonds – talk about weak growth expectations! We also saw the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond drop below the dividend yield for the S&P 500 recently. The last time that happened was in 2008.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped below the 2-year multiple times during the trading day in August but closed for the first time inverted on August 26th. August 27th the spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 2-year rate fell to negative 5 basis points, its lowest level since 2007. Overall the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell 52 basis points during the month of August – that’s a big deal. The last time we saw a fall of that magnitude in such a short period of time was in 2011 when fears of a double-dip recession were on the table. Currently, the real yield on US 10-year is sitting in negative territory which says a lot about the bond market’s expectations for growth in the coming years. Keep that in mind as you look at the PE multiple for the S&P 500 after having two consecutive quarters of contracting EPS.

A growing number of countries have their 10-year dropping into negative territory:

  • Switzerland first in January 2015
  • Japan in February 2016
  • Germany and Netherlands in the Summer of 2016
  • Finland and Denmark in the Fall of 2016
  • Ireland, Latvia, Slovakia, Belgium, Sweden, Austria, France all negative

The US is now the only nation in the developed world with any sovereign rate above 2% (h/t @Charlie Bilello). My bets are that we are the outlier that won’t stay an outlier indefinitely.

Recently the Italian 10-year bond dropped to new all-time lows as Cinque Stelle (5 Star) movement managed to team up with the center-left Democratic Party of former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. Don’t expect this new odd-couple coalition to last long as these two parties have basically nothing in common save for their loathing of Matteo Salvini and the League, but for now, the markets have been pacified. These two parties detest one another and were trading insults via Twitter up until about a month ago. This marriage of convenience is unlikely to last long.

The European Central Bank meets on September 12th, giving them one week head start versus the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee meeting, which is September 17th & 18th, kicking off the next round of the central bank race to the bottom. The ECB needs to pull out some serious moves to prop up Eurozone banks, which are near all-time lows relative to the broader market. We’ll next hear from the eternally-pushing-on-a-string Bank of Japan on September 19th.

Currency

Dollar Strength continues to be a problem across the globe. The US Trade Weighted Broad Dollar Index recently reached new all-time highs, something I have warned about in prior Context & Perspective pieces as being highly likely. It’s happened and this is big – really big when you consider the sheer volume of dollar-denominated debt coming due in the next few years and that this recent move is likely setting the stage for significant further moves to the upside.

In the context of the ongoing trade war with China, the renminbi dropped 3.7% against the dollar in August, putting it on track for the biggest monthly drop in more than a quarter of a century as Beijing is likely hunkering down for a protracted trade war with the US, despite what the sporadically hopefully headlines may say.

Make no mistake, this is about a lot more than just terms of trade. This is about China reestablishing itself as a major player on the world stage if not the dominant one. For much of the past two millennia, China and India together accounted for at least half of global GDP. The past few centuries of western dominance have been a historical aberration.

As the uncertainty around Brexit continues to worsen (more on this later), the British pound last week dropped to its lowest level against the dollar in 35 years, apart from a brief plunge in 2016 likely for technical reasons.

Domestic Economy

The US economy continues to flash warning signs, but there remain some areas of strength.

The Good:

  • Consumer Spending rose +0.4% month-over-month in July, beating expectations for an increase of +0.3%.
  • Average hourly earnings for August increased by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.2% year-over-year, each beat expectations by 0.1%.
  • ADP private nonfarm payrolls increased by 195,000 in August versus expectations for 148,000.
  • Unemployment rates for black and Hispanic workers hit record lows.
  • The prime-age (25-54) employment-population ratio hit a new high for this business cycle, still below the peak of both the prior and 1990s expansion peaks, but still an improvement.
  • While employment growth is slowing, jobs continue to grow faster than the population.
  • Despite the weakest ISM Manufacturing report in years, the ISM Non-Manufacturing report painted a much rosier picture of at least the service sector. While expectations were for an increase to 54.0 from 53.7 in July, the actual reading came in well above at 56.4. In contrast to the ISM Manufacturing report, New Orders were much stronger than the prior month and only slightly below the year-ago level.
  • The Citi Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has continued to recover, moving above zero (meaning more surprises to the upside than down) for the first time in 140 days after having been in negative territory for a record 357 days.

The Bad:

  • Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 130,000 versus consensus estimates for 163,000 and only 96,000 of those jobs came from the private sector – the slowest pace since February. Both July and June job figures have been revised lower, which is basically what we have been seeing in 2019. A long string of revisions to the downside means there is a material shift in the labor market. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 130,000 in August.
  • Job growth has averaged 158,000 per month in 2019, below the average monthly gain of 223,000 in 2018.
  • University of Michigan Consumer Confidence survey total contradicted the Conference Board’s findings with its main index falling the most since 2012 in August, dropping to the lowest level since President Trump took office. Concerns over tariffs were spontaneously mentioned by 1/3 of the respondents. The most concerning data from the survey where Household Expectations for personal finances one year from now experienced the biggest one month drop since 1978, falling 14 points.
  • Consumer spending doesn’t look so great when you look at the drop in the Personal Savings rate from 8.0% in June to 7.7% in July, which means that 75% of the increase in spending was at the cost of savings. Net income only rose 0.1% in nominal terms in July versus expectations for a 0.3% increase – not at all consistent with the narrative of a strong labor market.
  • The Chicago Fed’s Midwest state economy survey found that the number of firms cutting jobs rose to 21% in August from just 6% in July while those hiring dropped to 25% from 36%.
  • The Quinnipiac University poll found that for the first time since President Trump took office, more Americans believe the economy is getting worse (37%) than believe it is improving (31%).
  • Camper van sales dropped 23% year-over-year in July. This has historically been a pretty accurate leading indicator of future consumer spending.
  • The Duncan Leading Indicator (by Wallace Duncan of the Dallas Fed in 1977) has turned negative year-over-year for the first time since 2010. A Morgan Stanley study found that when this indicator has turned negative, a recession began on average four quarters later, with only one false positive out of seven going back to the late 1960s.
  • While expectations were for the ISM Manufacturing Index to increase from 51.2 to 51.3 in August, the reading came in at 49.1 (below 50 indicates contraction), the fifth consecutive monthly decline in the index and the first time the index has dropped into contraction in three years. Even worse, the only sub-index not in contraction was supplier deliveries. New Orders (the most forward-looking of all sub-indices) hasn’t been this weak since April 2009.
  • Durable Goods New Orders and Sales are improving but remain in contraction territory while Inventories are rising at around a 5% annual pace – that’s a problem.
  • US Producer Prices experienced their first decline in 18 months.
  • The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for the third quarter has fallen to 1.5%.

The Ugly:

  • US Freight rates have fallen 20% from the June 2018 high. Even more dire warning comes from freight orders, which dropped 69% in June from June 2018.

Europe

That nation that has been the region’s strongest economy is struggling as the fallout from the US-China trade war expands around the world.

  • The German unemployment rate rose for the fourth consecutive month.
  • German retail sales took a bigger battering than expected in July, falling 2.2% from June to reveal the biggest drop this year in the latest indication that Europe’s largest economy may well slide into recession. Since February, monthly retail sales figures have either declined or been flat, with the exception of the 3% gain in June.
  • A recent survey revealed that employers are posting fewer jobs, intensifying fears that the downturn in the country’s manufacturing industry has spread into the wider economy.
  • Manufacturing orders came in weaker than expected, declining -5.6% versus expectations for -4.2%.
  • Construction activity has contracted at the fastest rate since June 2014.
  • Germany’s export-dependent economy shrank 0.1% in the second quarter while the central bank warned this month that a recession is likely.

The rest of Europe continues to weaken.

  • Italian industrial orders fell -0.9% in June, making for a -4.8% year-over-year contraction
  • French consumer spending is up all of +0.1% year-over-year.
  • Spain’s flash CPI has fallen from 0.5% year-over-year in July to 0.3% in August year-over-year.
  • Switzerland’s year-over-year-GDP growth has fallen to 0.2% versus expectations for 0.9% – treading water here.
  • Brexit has turned into an utter mess as Prime Minister Boris Johnson has lost his majority in Parliament. Novels could and likely will be written on this mind-boggling drama in what was once one of the most stable democracies in the world. Rather than put you through that, as they say, a picture is worth a thousand words.

The challenge for anyone negotiating terms for Brexit with the Eurozone basically comes down to this.

Talk about a Sisyphean effort

Understanding this impossible reality, here is what to expect in the coming weeks.

For those who may not be convinced that this is a material problem, this is an estimate of the impact of a hard Brexit on the Eurozone alone.

Bottom Line

Around 70% of the world’s major economies have their Purchasing Managers Index in contraction territory (below 50) – that is a lot of slowing going on. Much of the world is drowning in debt with excess productive capacity – a highly deflationary combination.

We are witnessing a major turning point in the global economy and geopolitical landscape. The past 60 post-WWII years have primarily consisted of US economic and military dominance, increasing levels of globalization and relatively low levels of geopolitical tension.

Today we are seeing a shift away from an optimistic world of highly interconnected global supply chains towards one driven by xenophobia and nationalism. We are seeing rising economic and political tensions between not only traditional rivals but also between long-term allies. In the coming decades, the US economy will no longer be the singular global economic and military powerhouse, which will have a material impact on the world’s geopolitical balance of power.

The big question facing investors is whether the US and much of the rest of the world are heading into a recession. Many leading indicators that have proven themselves reliable in the past indicate that this is highly likely but today really is different.

Never before in modern history have we had these levels and types of central bank influence. Never before have we had such a long expansion period. Never before have we had this much debt, particularly at the corporate level. Never before have we had such profound demographic headwinds. On top of all that, we have a directional shift away from globalization that is forcibly dismantling international supply chains that were decades in the making with no clarity on future trade rules.

Will central bankers be able to engineer a way to extend this expansion? No one who is intellectually honest can answer that question with a high level of confidence as we are in completely uncharted territory. This means investors need to be agile and put on portfolio protection while it remains relatively cheap thanks to historically low volatility levels.

I’ll leave you with a more upbeat note, my favorite headline of the week.

In the Midst of Rising Unknowns, Focus on What We Do Know

In the Midst of Rising Unknowns, Focus on What We Do Know

As someone famous (or infamous depending on your leanings) once said, “there are known knowns….there are known unknowns…but there are also unknown unknowns.”

We’ve got a whole lot of the second two going around these days and that is not good for growth. Life and investing requires dealing with uncertainty to be sure, but holy cow these days investors and businesses are facing a whole other level of who-the-hell-knows and that is a headwind to growth.

  • The bumbling battle over Brexit
  • China’s earnings recession
  • Slowing in Europe
  • Yield curve inversions
  • Record levels of frustration with Capital Hill
  • The Cost of Corporate Uncertainty
  • The battle over the GDP pie
  • Beware Reversion to the Mean

Brexit

The United Kingdom, in or out? The mess that has become of Brexit is wholly unprecedented in modern history. As of March 29th, the day the UK was set to leave the EU, Brexit has never been more uncertain nor has the leadership of the UK in the coming months. This graphic pretty much sums it up.

Many Brits are unhappy with the state of their nation’s economy and are blaming those folks over in Brussels, as are many others in the western world – part of our Middle Class Squeeze investment theme.

China

Its economy is slowing, but just how bad it is and just how dire the debt situation in the nation is difficult to divine given the intentional opacity of the nation’s leadership. The ongoing trade negotiations with America run as hot and cold as Katy Perry depending on the day and when you last checked your Twitter feed.

Most recently China’s industrial profits fell 14% year-over-year in the January and February meaning we are witnessing an earnings recession in the world’s second largest economy.

Europe

Last week the markets ended in the red, driven in part by weaker than expected German manufacturing PMI from Markit with both output and new orders falling significantly – new orders were the weakest in February since the Financial Crisis.

Markit German Manufacturing PMI

It wasn’t just the Germans though as the French Markit Composite Index (Manufacturing and Services) dropped into contraction territory as well in February, coming in at 48.7 versus expectations for 50.7, (anything below 50 is in contraction). The French PMI output index is also in contraction territory.

This led to the largest one-day decline in the Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index in years, (hat tip TheDailyShot).

Yield Curve Inversion

This pushed the yield on the German 10-year Bund into negative territory for the first time since 2016 while in the US Treasury market, the 10-year to 3-month and 10-year to 1-year spreads went negative – an inverted yield curve which has been a fairly reliable predictor of US recessions. The 10-year 3-month inverted for the first time in 3,030 days – that is the longest period going back over 50 years. The Australian yield curve has also inverted at the short end.

No Love for Capital Hill

Americans’ view of their government is the worst on record – another manifestation of our Middle-Class Squeeze Investment theme. Gallup has been asking Americans what they felt was the most important problem facing the country since 1939 and has regularly compiled mentions of the government since 1964. Prior to 2001, the highest percentage mentioning government was 26% during the Watergate scandal. The current measure of 35% is the highest on record.

Few issues have every reached this level of importance to the American public: in October of 2001 46% mentioned terrorism; in February of 2007 38% mentioned the situation in Iraq, in November 2008 58% mentioned the economy and in September 2011 39% mentioned unemployment/jobs.

While America appears to be more and more polarized politically, the one thing that many agree upon, regardless of political leanings – government is the greatest problem.

It isn’t just the US that is having a tiff with its leaders. Last weekend over 1 million (yes, you read that right) people protested in London calling for a new Brexit referendum – likely the biggest demonstration in the UK’s history and then there are all the firey protests in France.

The Cost of Corporate Uncertainty

When companies face elevated levels of uncertainty, they scale back and defer growth plans and may choose to shore up the balance sheet and reduce overhead rather than invest in opportunities for growth. So how are companies feeling?

A recent Duke CFO Global Business Outlook Survey found that nearly have of the CFOs in the US believe that the nation will be in a recession by the end of this year and 82% believe a recession will have begun before the end of 2020.

It isn’t just in the US as CFOs across the world believe their country will be in a recession by the end of this year – 86% in Canada, 67% in Europe, 54% in Asia and 42% in Latin America.

All that uncertainty is hitting the bottom line. Global earnings revision ratio has plunged while returns have managed to hold up so far.

It isn’t just the CFO that is getting nervous as CEOs are quiting at the highest rates since the financial crisis – getting out at the top?


The GDP Pie

To sum it up, lots of unknowns of both the known and unknown variety and folks are seriously displeased with their political leaders.

So what do we actually know?

We know that US corporate profits after tax as a percent of GDP (say that five times fast) are at seriously elevated levels today, (nearly 40% above the 70+ year average) and have been since the end of the financial crisis. No wonder so many people are angry about the 1%ers.

Corporate profits have never before in modern history been able to command such a high portion of GDP. This is unlikely to continue both because of competition, which tends to push those numbers down and public-policy. If the corporate sector is going to command a bigger piece of GDP, that means either households or the government is going to have to settle for a smaller portion.

It isn’t just the corporate sector that has taken a bigger piece of the GDP pie. Federal government spending to GDP reached an all-time high of 25% in the aftermath of the financial crisis and has remained well above historical norms since then.

Given the level of dissatisfaction we discussed earlier concerning Capital Hill, it is highly unlikely that we will see a reduction in government deficit spending. When was the last time a politician said, “So you aren’t satisfied with what we are doing for you? Great, then we’ll just do less.”

That leaves the households with a smaller portion of the economic pie – evidence of which we can see in all the talk around how wage growth remains well below historical norms.

Reversion to the Mean

Given the current political climate, it is unlikely that government spending as a percent of GDP is going to decline in any material way, which leaves the battle between the corporate and household sector. Again, given the current political climate (hello congresswoman AOC) it is unlikely that the corporate sector is going to be able to maintain its current outsized share of GDP – the headlines abound with forces that are working to reduce corporate profit margins and as we’ve mentioned earlier, global earnings are being revised downward significantly. If the corporate sector’s portion of GDP falls to just its long-term average (recall today it is 40% above and has been above that average for about a decade), it would mean a significant decline in earnings.

The prices investors are willing to pay for those earnings are also well above historical norms.

Today the Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE) is 82% above the long-term mean and 93% above the long-term median. What is the likelihood that this premium pricing will continue indefinitely? My bets are it won’t.

The bottom line is that the level of both corporate profits and what investors are willing to pay for those profits are well outside historical norms. If just one of those factors moves towards their longer-term average, we will see a decline in prices. If both adjust towards historical norms, the fall will be quite profound.

Brexit has led to smaller candy and chip package sizes? What?

Brexit has led to smaller candy and chip package sizes? What?

We’ve seen this trick more than a few times by food and other consumer product companies – shrink the package size and keep prices unchanged. A shifty version of a price increase if you ask us. Why do these companies embark on such a move? Largely because costs are rising, perhaps to the Scare Resource nature of certain commodities or the impact of currency shifts, and their pricing power is limited. We’ve seen this time and time gain at companies like JM Smucker and a bag of coffee that is no longer a pound in size to cereal from General Mills in tiny boxes. This stealth price increase means buying more to get amounts one might need – good for company sales and profits, but another thorn in the side of the Cash-strapped Consumer.

 

Mars has cut down the size of the bags of M&M and Maltesers in the U.K., while PepsiCo (PEP) decided to shrink packages of Doritos chips and other products.”We have been absorbing rising raw material and operational costs for some time, but the growing pressures mean that we can’t keep things as they are,” a spokesperson for Mars said Thursday.

A sharp decline in the value of the pound following Britain’s vote to leave the EU has pushed up prices of many imported goods, from food to electronics.

The pound has dropped 17% against the dollar since the referendum last June.

Commodities including cocoa are priced in dollars, so British producers are paying more for them. And factory costs have also gone up significantly in recent years.

 

Mondelez International (MDLZ) sparked outrage late last year after it changed the shape of its popular Toblerone bar. By adding space between the triangles, the company was able to keep the bar’s original packaging and length, but reduce the amount of chocolate.

Mondelez blamed rising ingredient prices for the change.

Source: M&Ms and Doritos get smaller in U.K. as Brexit bites prices – Apr. 6, 2017

Brexit from London

On June 25th, while in London, I had the pleasure of joining David Asman on Fox News to discuss the meaning of Thursday’s vote to leave the European Union. The view of Brexit from London has been stunning. All those who underestimated the British sense of self-confidence and desire for sovereignty or who were over-confident in the betting odds giving only a 25% change of leaving, are now paying dearly for that confidence. The shock amongst most in the financial sector in London is palatable, with the lights burning bright in most offices all weekend, as portfolio managers, investment bankers and traders work to get their arms around just what this means for them and their clients.

What this means for the US

Pundits in the US are trying to calm markets buy assuring them that this won’t over overly impactful for the US as the UK, the fifth largest economy in the world, only accounts for roughly 3.8% of world GDP, according to estimates for 2016 from the International Monetary Fund, versus the United States, which accounts for around 25.4%. But that misses that this is not just about the UK, but rather about the future viability and success of the European Union, whose GDP is nearly the same as the US. With the tumultuous and highly contentious presidential election cycle in the US,  about 50% of the world’s economy is now experiencing a high level of political uncertainty within the context of an already weak global economy. That is a strong headwind to growth for everyone.

The most immediate impact of Brexit for the US likely a continued increase in the strength of the dollar, which is great for American tourists abroad, but a challenge for American multinational firms that export their products and/or services. The strong dollar will also impact emerging markets that have a good deal of debt denominated in U.S. dollars, acting as a headwind to those economies as that debt becomes more expensive. The uncertainty of how this all will pan out means transactions and contracts between companies in the European Union and with companies outside of the union may be put on hold or cancelled entirely – more headwinds to growth.

Many today are harshly criticizing the Brexit leadership for not having a clear plan for what to do if their side actually won, but the reality is that kind of a plan was literally impossible. A plan would have required having some clarity on how agreements would be worked out with, primarily, other European nations. The leadership of the rest of the European Union had every reason to assure the UK that, “Fine, you want to leave us! Then we will refuse to play with you anymore!” as they desperately wanted the UK to stay. But now that the decision has been made, and after time soothes the many bruised egos a bit, real conversations can begin.

Impact on European Union

The bigger issue here is that the European Union has not delivered on its promises to all who joined. Many countries are suffering in ways that were not expected, with internal tensions rising with every passing year of weak economic growth, high unemployment (particular among the youth) and supercilious finger-wagging from the stronger nations at the weaker ones. As hope for a recovery fades, desperation is rising and the belief that those in Brussels are a cure is shifting to suspicion that they are instead the disease. One of the greatest lessons of political history from the dawn of nations is that the further the decision-makers sit from those affected by the decisions, the poorer the quality of the decision. History shows that the more people that are forced into one size-fits-all solutions, the poorer the end result, often times with dramatic actions to break those bonds.

Those countries in the European Union that have been struggling to reignite their economies post-financial crisis will be closely watching as the events unfold for the UK, placing a lot of pressure on everyone involved. European leaders find themselves in a catch 22. On the one hand, they will be better off having strong trade relationships with the UK, but on the other hand they don’t want other nations that may be contemplating their own exit to see the UK benefiting from this move. Expect more threats, grandstanding and predictions of doom and gloom before this breakup drops from the headlines around the world.

Brexit

Brexit

Brexit. It’s all the rage these days. The word is whispered over candlelight glasses of wine in dark corners at swanky post-market-closeBrexit, Symbol of the Referendum UK vs EU cocktail bars. It is spit out over conference room tables amongst such phrases as “contingency planning” and “hedging strategies.” It has everything a news agency drools over, drama with the dark horse effect as the yes vote gains unexpected traction on the very last loop around the track.  It provides angry rants that skirt around xenophobia or at least a level of indignant nationalism that can generate eye-catching headlines. It paints the image of a battle of wills between the confident and worldly intellectual, gazing with vague annoyance over wire-rimmed glasses at the rough and tumble, calloused working man who is damn tired of those immigrants stealing jobs. It is a story filled with fear, hope, anger, frustration, isolation and unity.  Whatever version of the story attracts you the most, as an investor a “yes” vote for the UK to leave the European Union has two major impacts, currency and uncertainty.

Currency Effect

The currency effect means a stronger US dollar relative to the Euro and Pound Sterling. This would make american exports more expensive and imports relatively less expensive. The United States is the second largest exporter in the world, so when our exports become more expensive, that’s harder on everyone buying our stuff so it becomes a headwind to growth. With imports relatively less expensive, Americans are more likely to purchase an imported product than they otherwise would have been, which can also hurt american producers.

The currency effect can also be a problem for emerging markets where companies have issued unprecedented levels of debt denominated in US dollars. As the US dollar rises in value, that debt become more and more expensive, resulting in everything from reduced investment in growth to defaults which are further headwinds to global growth.

The currency effect can also have a secondary impact in its correlation with oil. With oil denominated primarily in dollars in the global marketplace, strengthening dollar means weaker oil prices. This can then affect the sovereign wealth funds from those oil-dependent nations as they are pressured to sell assets in order to pour more back into their domestic economies. This is a headwind to global asset prices.

Overall the currency effect is essentially deflationary for the US, which makes it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to return us to a more normal rate environment, prolonging the negative side effects from low-to-zero interest rates.

Uncertainty Effect

The uncertainty effect is all about the impact on companies. Although the word sounds easy enough, Brexit, short, simple and comfortably straightforward, the reality is no one really knows just how this darn thing will pan out! If there is in fact a yes vote, unthinkable a few weeks ago but now looking increasingly like it just might happen, no one is clear as to just how it would be implemented. Then there is the reality that the vast majority of politicians in the U.K., regardless of party, are all against a Brexit, so these folks will find themselves having to enact legislation based on a vote by their constituency that goes against what they believe is best; rock meet hard place.

With the realities of the actual implementation unknown, companies will be much less likely to invest which means less spending/less growth. There will be less M&A activity and the potential momentum of this vote with respect to rising nationalism is a further headwind to already falling levels of global trade which means even slower growth across the globe.

Brexit, the end of french kisses along the Thames?