Calm Before the Storm?

Calm Before the Storm?

While D.C. is full of fireworks over health care and Russians, the Treasury is scrambling to pay the bills, yet the markets are peacefully awash in Xanax. The spread between the 6-month and 3-month Treasury bills is now pricing in a potential technical default, but given that the rest of the Treasury market looks unaffected, […]

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Yield Curve Flashing Warnings Sign

Yield Curve Flashing Warnings Sign

The spread between the 30 year Treasury yield and the 2 year Treasury yield is back down to the lows of last year. The only time in over a decade that we saw the yield curve this flat was back in 2007 when all hell was breaking loose. Look a little further up the curve, the […]

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Consumer Sentiment Closer to Economic Reality than Blankfein?

Consumer Sentiment Closer to Economic Reality than Blankfein?

The CEO and Chairman of Goldman Sachs (GS), Lloyd Blankfein, is arguably one hell of a sharp fellow, which leads us to believe there are reasons behind this that go beyond a straightforward assessment of the economy. Perhaps consumers see something different than what we hear in the mainstream financial media. The University of Michigan’s […]

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January Market Update

January Market Update

For 2014, the S&P 500 was the strongest performer of the major international indices with Japan’s Nikkei the second strongest, the remaining indices were relatively flat to slightly negative.  From this we can see those areas with the most aggressively loose monetary policy had the strongest performing equity markets, something to keep in mind as […]

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What a ride!

What a ride!

By the beginning of October, the U.S. stock market rally had been going on for 66 months, since bottoming out in March 2009, enjoying a correction-free streak that had already been a year longer than average, despite corporate profit growth that was not only in the low single-digits, but was driven more by cost-cutting than […]

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