Monthly Archives: August 2016

As food prices drop we make a move on a Foods with Integrity thematic opportunity

As food prices drop we make a move on a Foods with Integrity thematic opportunity

In this week’s edition of Tematica Investing:

  • Download Tematica InvestingWe are issuing a Buy on shares of United Natural Foods (UNFI) as part of our Food with Integrity investing theme. Our price target is $65, which offers more than 35 percent upside. We intend to build this position size over time and as such we are holding off issuing a stop loss recommendation at this time.  Read full report >>
  • We’ve got several Tematica Select List updates to share, including
    • AT&T (T)
    • CalAmp Corp. (CAMP)
    • Nike (NKE)
    • Under Armour (UA)
    • And several others. Read More . . .
  • Heads up! Just as you’ll be coasting into the last days of summer, after adding 5 new positions in as many weeks we too will be taking some time off to recharge our batteries before the final push for 2016 begins. So, there will not be an issue on Wednesday, September 7. Your next issue of Tematica Investing will be on September 14. 

 

You can click below to download the full report.

 

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Toms Shoes: proof point for “Experiential Shopping”

Toms Shoes: proof point for “Experiential Shopping”

Growing up on Long Island in the 80’s in a small town out on the North Fork called Mattituck there was a furniture store along a fairly busy street (busy for Mattituck standards). One day the owner decided to sell some used bikes out front. They sold quickly. Then he sold another bike, and another, and another, until ultimately he started selling new bikes right out of the store. Before you knew it, the store was transformed from Country Time Furniture to Country Time Furniture and Bikes — half the store sold furniture and the other half bikes. The bike store is still there, I think the furniture part of the business is long gone.

On paper, the business model made no sense — furniture and bikes. But as kids, its was the best furniture store to go to. We could check out all the bikes as the parents looked at boring furniture. And then for the parents, when getting their children new bikes or repairing a bike, they could look at the furniture. Of course, there was also a seasonality aspect to the business — bikes sold well during the summer when furniture didn’t.

Fast-forward and now we have shopping malls being converted into entertainment centers. The NFL, NBA and NHL all opening massive stores in New York City that are experience-driven stores. Brands are now opening experience stores: M&M’s, Crayola, etc. Restoration Hardware closing mall-based stores and replacing it with a massive showroom store in Atlanta.

From our viewpoint, the reason for this movement is simple: online shopping.  Say what?  Yes, with more and more shoppers going online for their day-to-day needs, when folks head out, they aren’t shopping for the essentials anymore — AmazonPrime (AMZN) is taking care of that. No, they are looking to be entertained. They are looking to try new things, see new things, live new things .

That’s a long preamble for this story about Toms Shoes, which opened a flagship store in the trendy Venice Beach area of LA (read expensive), and put a coffee shop in it. The result? The store was immediately profitable, but not because of the coffee. It’s the people hanging out drinking coffee that start looking at shoes. Or, the people coming in to look at shoes and grab a cup of coffee.  Or, what’s more likely is one person is trying on shoes while their companion is patiently waiting, enjoying a nice cup of Joe. Just like furniture and bikes.

 

When Blake Mycoskie, founder of Toms Shoes, decided to open a flagship store along a sun-soaked strip of Abbott Kinney Blvd. in Venice, Calif., people thought he was crazy, but not because opening a retail outlet didn’t make sense for the brand.

Mr. Mycoskie only wanted to dedicate half of the square footage to selling shoes; the rest would become a coffee shop with an outdoor space for people to hang out among the merchandise.

Source: How Toms Wins At Retail By Not (Only) Selling Shoes – AdAge

Housing and remodeling data rebounds, so we make another Rise-Fall of Middle Class move

Housing and remodeling data rebounds, so we make another Rise-Fall of Middle Class move

  • While the market waits for Yellen and Draghi to speak at the Kansas City Fed’s 40th Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming later this week, we continue to low expectations for anything new being said at the event. Read More >>
  • A pick up in New Home Sales bodes well for the Tematica Select List position in Sherwin Williams (SHW). We continue to rate SHW shares a Buy, and our price target remains $350. Read More >>
  • We are issuing a Buy on shares of Whirlpool Corp. (WHR) as part of our Rise & Fall of the Middle Class investing theme with a $232 price target. Much like Sherwin Williams, Whirlpool stands to benefit from robust repair & remodel spending over the next few years. Read More >>
  • Updates Updates Updates on Amazon (AMZN), CalAmp (CAMP), Under Armor (UA) and Nike (NKE) shares. Read More >>
You can click below to download the full report.

 

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Millennials watched online, but how does NBC make money on it? $CMCSA

Millennials watched online, but how does NBC make money on it? $CMCSA

NBC is obviously scrambling to someone justify the 30% drop in viewership of this year’s games versus the London games just 4 years ago. 3.4 billion minutes of streaming is certainly impressive — and expected, to say the least considering the elements of the Connected Society thematic — but how much revenue did those minutes generate?

The struggle internet companies have dealt with since the bubble — how to monetize eyeballs — is the same reality for networks trying to generate enough revenue to cover the enormous rights fees being paid for the Olympics and major sports leagues. For our money, the power of the streaming experience is two-fold: individualized experience (meaning they know which set of eyeballs is watching the video) and location-based targeting (they can tell pretty closely where you are while watching).

According to NBCU, nearly 50 million viewers streamed 3.4 billion minutes across the web and on mobile and connected devices, with more than half of streamers under the age of 35. That compares with almost 200 million viewers in aggregate who watched the Games across NBCU’s TV networks during the 17 days of coverage.

Source: NBC Argues Millennials Did Watch the Olympics—Just Not All on Traditional TV – WSJ

Getting this nursing stock off the bench and into the game

Getting this nursing stock off the bench and into the game

Continually throughout the past several weeks, we’ve shared our concern about the outlook for second half earnings for the S&P 500 group of companies relative to expectations — probably more than you’ve wanted to hear!

We continue to see those forecasts as overly robust, particularly with the stock market seemingly hitting new record highs every other day. Our view has been that there is more downside risk to be had as earnings expectations for the back half of 2016 get resized and reset.

Of course, as those expectations are reset, it can mean opportunity — opportunity for taking positions in companies we see as well-positioned from a thematic perspective, but at better prices than just a few weeks ago. We saw that last week with CalAmp Corp (CAMP), and we see it again this week with (AHS) AMN Healthcare Services.

 

In this week’s Tematica Investing:

  • We are taking advantage of a 23 percent drop in (AHS) AMN Healthcare Services shares to take them off the bench get them in the game — moving them from the Tematica Contender list to the Tematica Select List. Read More >>
  • With Back-to-School season more than in full swing, we dive into the intricacies of teen shopping habits and how they impact various positions across several of our themes, including Amazon (AMZN), Nike (NKE), Under Armour (UA) and what are probably the obvious themes and the not-so-obvious as well.  Read More >>

 

You can click below to download the full report.

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Video Arcades Trump Most Amusement Parks, Not Disney or Universal

Video Arcades Trump Most Amusement Parks, Not Disney or Universal

What do you get when you mash together aspects of our Connected Society  and Content is King investing themes? One answer is gaming.

Add in our “Death of the Mall as You Know It” view and we are not surprised by the return of video arcades. These 21st-century arcades are filled with high-end 3D games and simulators that are chomping more than just a few quarters. But that’s where our Cashless Consumption theme comes into play as a player uses a topped off game play card that also keeps track of  prize tickets. While we still love our roller coasters, we can understand how the quasi-addictive nature of gaming. Add in some friends and some adult beverages a la our Guilty Pleasure investing theme and <boom> there is your Dave & Buster’s Entertainment (PLAY) business model.

For those of you who miss the old stand-up games of Galaga and Defender, there were more “amusement arcades” in 2014 than in 1998, according to the Census Bureau.

The amusement park has been on a roller coaster ride for two decades, one that—as the chart shows—is fundamentally headed downward. In some years, more parks opened than shut, but the small upticks have been wiped out by the near-regularity of a free fall. There were 48 percent fewer amusement parks in the U.S. in 2014 than in 1998.

Among these, the smaller parks which depend on local or regional customers, and often just during summer, are having the hardest time. Even such a well-loved brand as Lego met industry skepticism as it seeks to build a chain of regional parks. On the other hand, huge amusement and theme parks that double as vacation destinations are still going strong.

Source: Americans Are in Love With Video Arcades Again – Bloomberg

Even the Olympics are no-longer must-see TV

Even the Olympics are no-longer must-see TV

Even the Olympics can’t overcome the shifting media consumption habits . . .

So far, NBC isn’t delivering the audience it promised advertisers who spent more than $1.2 billion for commercials during the 17-day event. Of particular concern is a roughly 30% drop among viewers age 18-34, a demographic advertisers pay a premium to reach. The lower-than-expected ratings show that even an institution as big as the Olympics isn’t immune to changing media consumption habits and the abundance of choice viewers have on television and online.

 

Source: NBC’s Ratings for Rio Olympics Fall Behind London – WSJ

Tematica Select Investment List

Tematica Select Investment List

Thematic Leaders List - NEW!

The stocks that crystallize and embody each of our 10 investment themes and offer the most compelling risk-to-reward tradeoff. Additionally, it currently includes Amazon, which is currently the most thematically well-positioned company riding the largest number of tailwinds from all the themes.  Click here for details

Tematica Select Investment List

While the Thematic Leaders list includes those stocks that offer the most compelling risk-to-reward tradeoff, the Select List includes those stocks that have a “Hold” rating. Unlike Wall Street research, however, our Hold means keeping the position in intact to capture any and all additional upside. Click here for details

Closed Tematica Select List Positions

Netflix’s ‘Stranger Things’ kicking up NetFlix ( $NFLX) as a Content is King player

Netflix’s ‘Stranger Things’ kicking up NetFlix ( $NFLX) as a Content is King player

The thesis this article raises about the connection between the appeal in Donald Trump with some Americans, our desire to return to a time when things were simpler and happier (the Reagan Years) and the success of the new series “Stranger Things” from Netflix is certainly an interesting, if not entertaining read. But what caught out attention were the stats on viewership of the series in just a little over two weeks time (see below), it’s why players such as Netflix (NFLX) and Amazon (AMZN) are winning across multiple themes we track.

“Stranger Things,” its latest original series, has far outpaced other Netflix originals in viewership. In the first 16 days, 8.2 million people watched the science fiction drama, putting it far ahead of hits like “House of Cards,” “Daredevil,” and “Jessica Jones.”

Source: Magic of Netflix’s ‘Stranger Things’ can explain rise of Donald Trump – Business Insider