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Weekly Issue: The Changing Mood of the Market

Weekly Issue: The Changing Mood of the Market

Over the last several days, volatility in the stock market has been rampant with wide swings taking place. Part and parcel of this has been a mood change in the stock market as high-flying stocks, including a number of technology ones, have come under pressure as investors re-think their growth prospects. That continued yesterday as shares of iPhone maker Apple (AAPL) became the latest one to dip into bear market territory with last night’s close following renewed concerns over the company’s device shipments in the near-term. This, in turn, has led to a few downgrades by Wall Street analysts, that at least in my view, are being somewhat short-sighted as the company continues to morph its business into one that is more reliant on high margin services rather than just the iPhone.

The same can be said with Amazon (AMZN), which has seen its shares tumble despite there being no slowdown in the shift to digital commerce as evidenced by the October Retail Sales Report. That report showed Nonstore retail sales for the month climbing just shy of 3x as fast as overall retail sales year over year. That was certainly confirmed in the latest earnings reports this week from Macy’s (M) and Walmart (WMT).  All indications, as well as expectations, have this aspect of our Digital Lifestyle investing theme accelerating into the all-important holiday shopping season. And yes, this keeps me bullish on our shares of United Parcel Service (UPS)

Now here’s the tough part to swallow – while we and our thematic way of investing are likely to be right in the medium to long-term, the mood in the stock market tends to prevail in the short-term. And with several of the concerns I’ve talked about here as well as in Tematica Investing and on our podcast, Cocktail Investing, rearing their heads odds are the stock market will continue to be a volatile one in the very near-term. This will likely see the current expectation resetting continue, especially for the sector-based investor view of “technology” stocks. Talk about a multi-headed sector that is simply a mish-mash of things – I’ll stick to our thematic lens approach, thank you very much. That said, with “tech” being in the doghouse, I’m using the time to evaluate a number of companies for the currently open Disruptive Innovators slot in our Thematic Leaders. Some of the current contenders include cloud-focused companies Dropbox (DBX), Instructure (INST) and Okata (OKT) among others.

This week

What’s been driving the latest round of roller coaster like thrills in the stock market can be found in the intersection of the latest earnings reports, economic data, and political developments. From sector investing perspective, we continue to get mixed results as evidenced by this week’s earnings reports as JC Penney (JCP) lagged expectations while Walmart (WMT) and Macy’s (M) beat them. From a thematic one, however, we see the dichotomy in those results as strong confirmation in our Digital Lifestyle investing theme as both Macy’s and Walmart delivered strong digital shopping performance in those quarterly reports, while JC Penney continues to struggle with its brick & mortar business.

Our Living the Life investing theme was also the recipient of positive confirmation this week as high-end outerwear company Canada Goose (GOOS) simply smashed top and bottom line expectations. Similarly, profits at luxury car company Aston Martin (AML.L) soared as its sales volume doubled year over year in the September quarter.

 

Sticking with Del Frisco’s

And while the Living the Lifestyle Thematic Leader that is Del Frisco’s (DFRG) reported a sloppy quarter following the disposal of its Sullivan’s business, the company shared a vibrant outlook, including the plan to grow its revenue and EBITDA to at least $700 million and $100 million by, respectively, by 2020 from the September quarter run rates of $420 million and $74 million, respectively. The intent on average will be to roll out two to three Double Eagles, two to three Barcelona Wine Bars and six bartacos restaurants each year, which is a measured move over the coming years and one that could be scaled back quickly should the domestic economy begin to falter several quarters out.

Near-term, Del Frisco’s should benefit from a pick-up in activity quarter to date following the arrival in the third quarter of its new chief marketing officer. On the earnings conference call, management shared Double Eagle’s private dining is up almost 20% in the first few weeks of the quarter and bookings for the rest of the quarter are up more than 20% compared to last year at this time.

The company also confirmed one of the key aspects of our investment thesis, which centers on margin improvement due in part to beef deflation. As discussed on the earnings call, the company’s total cost of sales as a percentage of revenue for the quarter decreased by 60 basis points to 27.3% from 27.9% in the year-ago period due to margin improvements at Double Eagle, Barcelona, and bartaco. This improvement and the year-over-year jump in bookings certainly point to the expected holiday inflection point panning out, which is also the most seasonally profitable time of year for Double Eagle and Grille. Cost-reduction efforts put in place earlier this year at these two brands should lead to visible margin improvement versus year-ago levels as the holiday volumes take effect.

  • For now, we’ll keep our long-term price target of $14 for Del Frisco’s (DFRG) shares intact, revisiting as needed should the company’s rollouts begin to slip.

 

Several headwinds remain in place

Despite these positive signals and happenings, we have to remember there are several headwinds blowing on the overall stock market. These include Italy standing firm with its latest budget, which puts it at odds with the European Union; Brexit limping forward; inflationary readings in both the October Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index that will more than likely keep the Fed’s rate hike path intact, a looming concern for consumer debt and high levels of corporate debt; and the pending trade talks between the US and China at a time when more data shows a cooling in the global economy.

On a positive note, the NFIB Small Business Index’s October reading continued the near-two year string of record highs with more small businesses than not citing a bullish attitude toward the economy and expanding their businesses. A note of caution here as most businesses tend to exude such sentiment at or near the economic peak – few see the looming the downside. The NFIB’s report once again called out the lack of skilled workers with 53% of those surveyed reporting few or no qualified applicants.

This signals potential wage pressures ahead, however, the sharp fall in oil prices, which follows the notion of the slowing global economy and rising inventory levels, is poised to give some relief to both businesses and consumers as we head into the holiday shopping season. Yes, average gas prices have fallen to $2.68 per gallon from $2.89 a month ago, but they are still up vs. $2.56 per gallon this time last year. When it comes to gas prices, most consumers think sequentially, which means they are recognizing the drop in recent weeks, which in their minds offers some relief.

Noticed, I said some relief – consumers still face high debt levels with larger servicing costs vs. the year-ago levels. And let’s be honest, a consumer with a 12-gallon gas tank in his or her car that fills up twice a week is saving all of $4.80 per week compared to this time last month. In today’s world, that’s about enough to buy one pizza with some toppings a month. In other words, it will take more pronounced declines in gas prices to make a meaningful difference for those investors that resonate with our Middle-Class Squeeze investing theme.

 

What to watch next week

In looking at the calendar for next week, we have the Thanksgiving holiday, which long-time subscribers know is one of my favorites. While the stock market is only closed for that holiday, we do have shortened trading hours next Friday – better known as Black Friday – and that will kick off the race for holiday shopping. That means we can expect the litany of headlines over initial holiday shopping sales over the post-holiday weekend as we ease into Cyber Monday. And yes, I will be paying close attention to those results given our positions in Amazon and UPS.

Before we get to share our thankfulness with family and friends, we will have a few economic reports to chew through including October Housing Starts, Durable Orders and Existing Home Sales. This week even Fed Chair Powell recognized the softening housing market as a headwind to the economy, and in my view that sets the stage for yet another lackluster housing report next week. Inside the Durable Orders report, we’ll be watching the all-important core capital goods line, a proxy for business investment. The stronger that number, the better the prospects for the current quarter, which tends to benefit from “use it or lose it” capital spending budgets.

On the earnings front next week, we will continue to hear from retailers, such as Best Buy (BBY), Kohl’s (KSS), Ross Stores (ROST) and TJX Companies (TJX). With regard to our own Costco Wholesale (COST) shares, we’ll be paying close attention to results from competitor BJ Wholesale (BJ). Outside of those retailers, I’ll be listening to what Nuance Communications (NUAN) has to say about the adoption of voice interfaces and digital assistants next week.

More year-end trimming — big gains and managing 2017 capital gains

More year-end trimming — big gains and managing 2017 capital gains

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ALERT:

  • Following the continued surge higher in the shares of Cashless Consumption company USA Technologies (USAT), we are trimming back our position by selling one-third of the position, which will produce a gain of more than 85% over the last seven months, and leave ample exposure on the Tematica Investing Select List. As we make this trade, we will also set a stop loss for USAT at $7.50, which will lock in a gain of roughly 65% on the remaining shares.
  • We are also trimming back our position in Disruptive Technology company Universal Display (OLED), which closed last Friday up more than 240% from our October 2016 entry. Similar to the USAT trade, we are selling one-third of the position, which lets us book some fantastic gains, but also ensures meaningful exposure to ramping demand for organic light emitting diode displays. We are also boosting our stop loss on OLED shares to $125 from $100.
  • As we book these gains, we will also offset these gains for tax purposes by matching them with losses. As such, we are exiting our positions in Nuance Communications (NUAN) and the ProShares Short S&P 500 ETF (SH) shares, which are down roughly 7% and 27%, respectively since being added to the Select List in 2017 and 2016.

 

A week ago I shared that we would be doing some year-end house cleaning on the Tematica Investing Select List as well as looking to minimize 2017 capital gains. We are back at that today as we look to match both short and long-term gains with short and long-term losses. Here we go:

 

Trimming back USAT shares

Last week I boosted our price target on Cashless Consumption company USA Technologies (USAT) to $8.00 from $6.50, and the shares proceeded to go on a tear following an upbeat presentation at the Craig-Hallum Alpha Select Conference. I’ve been a long-time fan of the company’s business model that focuses on mobile payments, particularly for vending applications, for some time. As much as I am a fan, with the shares up roughly 85% in the last seven months and having blown past our new price target into overbought territory, it means now is the time to be a prudent investor.

In keeping with the Wall Street saying — bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered — we are going to sell one-third of the USAT position on the Tematica Investing Select List, which will harvest a significant win. Given that we are in the early stages of mobile payments around the globe, the remaining USAT shares will offer us ample exposure to our Cashless Consumption investing theme. Again, we want to be prudent, which means setting a stop loss at $7.50, which locks in a gain of roughly 66% on our remaining USAT shares.

  • Following the continued surge higher in the shares of Cashless Consumption company USA Technologies (USAT), we are trimming back our position by selling one-third of the position, which will produce a gain of more than 85% over the last seven months, and leave ample exposure on the Tematica Investing Select List.
  • As we make this trade, we will also set a stop loss at $7.50, which will lock in a gain of roughly 65% on the remaining shares.

 

Following the same strategy with Universal Display (OLED) shares

Much like USAT shares, the position in Disruptive Technologies company Universal Display (USAT) has also been on a tear this past year, soaring roughly 280% over the last 12 months compared to more than 27% for the Nasdaq Composite Index and 19% for the S&P 500. Again, while we know the ramp in organic light emitting diode display demand will continue in coming quarters, as investors we need to remain prudent.

Therefore, we are employing a similar strategy with OLED shares that we did with USAT shares – we will sell one-third of the position and book a hefty win, while keeping the balance in play to capture additional upside in the coming quarters. We will also boost the positions stop loss to $125 from $100, which will lock in a profit of 135% on the remaining shares.

  • Similar to the USAT trade, we are selling one-third of the Universal Display (OLED) position, which books a gain of roughly 240% from our October 2016 buy-in.
  • We are boosting our stop loss on the remaining OLED shares to $125 from $100.

 

 

Cleaning up the Select List and optimizing year-end capital gains

It’s not lost on us those two trades will deliver some meaningful short and long-term gains. While we’re fans, big fans in fact, of such gains, we’re also fans of minimizing capital gains. As such we’re going to further clean up the Tematica Investing Select List by offsetting those gains with losses as we make the following trades:

  • We are exiting our position in Nuance Communications (NUAN), which is down 8% since it was added to the Tematica Investing Select List in January of this year.
  • We’re also exiting ProShares Short S&P 500 ETF (SH) shares, which are down 27% over the last 20 plus months.

 

Booking losses are never fun, but in this case, it does serve to soften the 2017 tax bill. Not a bad thing at all, especially since it adds back, even more, capital back to the war chest. Given our positions in Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOGL), we have ample exposure to voice technology and interfaces that are part of our Disruptive Technology investing theme. And while we are shedding the inverse ETF position, given our concerns with the other overall market that appears to be stalling amid tax reform, we’ll examine other hedging strategies to utilize when the time is right.

 

 

 

Here’s what we’ll be watching for at today’s Apple special event

Here’s what we’ll be watching for at today’s Apple special event

Several of the Disruptive Technologies investment theme companies currently on the Tematica Select List will play a key role in the Apple Special Event scheduled for Tuesday, September 12th. In all likelihood the companies themselves will never be mentioned during the event, but with expectations once again running high ahead the next generation iPhone, here’s what we’ll be watching for as it pertains to the Tematica Select List.

 

Early this afternoon, Connected Society and smartphone reliant Apple (AAPL) will hold its next special event that is widely expected to unveil a bevy of new products, including its latest iPhone models. Much has been made over the last few days of “leaked information” over these new models as well as new iterations for Apple TV and Apple Watch, but as exciting as those other new products may be because the iPhone is the majority of Apple’s revenue and profits odds are investors will focus their attention on those new models.

While we don’t own Apple shares, and we touched on at least one of those reasons yesterday, there are several companies on the Tematica Select List that will be affected by today’s special event – Universal Display (OLED), Applied Materials (AMAT), and AXT Inc. (AXTI) as well as USA Technologies (USAT) and Nuance Communications (NUAN).

 

Universal Display (OLED) 

As subscribers should be aware, Universal Display is a Disruptive Technology investment theme company that supplies needed chemicals and intellectual property utilized in the manufacturing of organic liquid crystal displays (OLEDs). Over the last few months, there has been much talk of ramping demand in an industry that is capacity constrained as Apple begins to adopt the technology in the iPhone while other applications (other smartphone vendors, TVs, wearables and automotive interior lighting) continue to replace existing lighting and displays with OLEDs. There are now indications that Apple is likely to introduce OLEDs in its new premium iPhone, purportedly the iPhone X.

The issue, however, is that it is being reported that the manufacturing of iPhone X device is currently capped at around 10,000 units per day and may not begin shipping until next month. This could be due OLEDs supply constraints, but if this speculation over the iPhone X turns out to be true, we could see a pullback in our OLED shares, especially following the more than 18% move in the last month alone that has the shares bumping up against our $135 price target. We continue to think that as the adoption of OLEDs continues to ramp up, we will see a step-function higher in our price target for Universal Display shares, but in the near-term, our concern is that rapid climb in the share price could hit a “buy the rumor, sell the news” wall following Apple’s event. If such an outcome occurs, our view is subscribers should continue to hold OLED shares for the long-term. If the shares retreated to the $110-$115 level, which would be a sharp pullback, we would view that as another bite at the apple for subscribers that have so far held off buying OLED shares.

  • Our price target on Universal Display (OLED) shares remains $135
  • For now, subscribers that have missed out on OLED shares should look to scoop them up between $110-$115.

 

Applied Materials (OLED) 

If the supposition that Apple’s iPhone X production is capped because of capacity constraints for OLEDs, we see that being a resounding positive for shares of Disruptive Technology company Applied Materials (AMAT). As a reminder, Applied not only manufactures semiconductor capital equipment (the machines that make chips) it does the same for displays, including OLEDs. Applied has been rather frank about the robust demand for OLEDs, and it remains one of the reasons we are bullish on AMAT shares. Others include rising memory demand as well as ramping in-country semiconductor capacity in China.

  • Our price target on Applied Materials (AMAT) shares remains $55.

 

AXT Inc. (AXTI)

We would be surprised to hear Apple talk about 5G wireless technology, which would require several additional layers of RF semiconductors, largely because most wireless carriers like AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ) and T-Mobile USA (TMUS) are still testing the technology. If, however, the Apple Watch is updated to include LTE wireless technology, that would be a source of new demand for RF semiconductors, like those from Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) and Qorvo (QRVO). In turn, that means those companies, as well as other RF semiconductor suppliers of Apple’s, would require additional compound semiconductor substrates from AXT Inc. (AXTI). While we still see the eventual deployment of 5G networks that will drive incremental RF semiconductor demand as the key driver longer-term for AXT’s business, incremental demand from devices like Apple Watch is certainly welcome.

  • Our price target on AXT Inc. (AXTI) shares remains $10.50

 

USA Technologies (USAT) & Nuance Comm. (NUAN)

Finally, during today’s presentations, we’ll also be watching and listening for incremental news on USA Technologies (USAT), an Apple Pay partner, as well as Nuance Communications (NUAN). In iOS 11, Apple will continue to expand the services offered through Apple Pay, and we expect to hear at least some usage statistics from Apple CEO Tim Cook today. With Nuance, voice continues to become the new interface of choice across new applications from smart speakers to chat-bots, like those being rolled out by Google (GOOGL), Facebook (FB) and yes, Apple, and that keeps us bullish on NUAN shares.

  • Our price target on USA Technologies (USAT) shares remains $6
  • Our price target on Nuance Communications (NUAN) remains $21.

 

 

 

Putting Some Defensive Measures in Place Ahead of Tuesday’s Trump Speech

Putting Some Defensive Measures in Place Ahead of Tuesday’s Trump Speech

If you’ve missed our weekly Monday missive that is the Monday Morning Kickoff, we’d encourage you to pursue it later today as it offers both context and perspective on last week, including much talk about the Fed, and sets the stage for this week.

This week, we’ve got a lot of data coming at us, more corporate earnings that prominently feature our Cash-strapped Consumer and Fattening of the Population investing themes. There are a number of events and conferences as well, and before too long we’ll have some thoughts on this week’s Mobile World Congress, an event that meshes very well with our Connected Society, Disruptive Technology and Cashless Consumption investing themes.

We expect to see a number of announcements ranging from new smartphone models, connected as well as autonomous vehicle developments, voice digital assistant initiatives, drones, and payment systems to name a few. We’ll be watching these with regard to a number of positions on the Tematica Select List, including Universal Display (OLED), Nuance Communications (NUAN), AT&T (T), Dycom Industries (DY), CalAmp (CAMP) and Alphabet (GOOGL) as well as Amazon (AMZN). Already Amazon has announced it will bring its Alexa VDA to Motorola’s smartphones, and we see that as the tip of the proverbial iceberg his week.

As the Mobile World Congress gets underway, however, we have another event that should capture investor attention. After presenting today what’s called a “skinny budget”, (which we view as the “opening bid budget”) tomorrow night President Trump will be speaking to a joint session of Congress. Typically this is referred to as the State of the Union Address, but it’s not called that for a newly elected president. Trump has already shared that he will be talking about health care reform — “We’re going to be speaking very specifically about a very complicated subject…I think we have something that is really going to be excellent.”

As we’ve said before, we’re optimistic and hopeful, but thus far it seems Republicans have yet to find common ground on how to move forward on this. In addition to healthcare reform, investors, including us, will be listening for more details on Trump’s fiscal policies. The issue is speeches such as this tend to be lacking in specifics, and we would be rather surprised to see Trump deviate from that tradition. Moreover, we’ve already seen the Treasury Secretary push out the timetable for a tax report to late summer, and Trump himself suggested that we are not likely to see his tax reform proposal until after the healthcare reform has been addressed.

As we shared in this morning’s Monday Morning Kickoff, with the S&P 500 trading at 18x expected earnings, it looks like the stock market is out over its ski tips. Two drivers of the market rally over the coming months have been:

  • The improving, but not stellar economic data
  • The hope that President Trump’s policies will jumpstart the economy.

We’ve been saying for some time that the soonest we’d likely get any meaningful impact from Trump’s policies would be the back half of 2017. That’s been our perspective, but as we know from time to time, the stock market can get ahead of itself, and we see this as one of those times. The stock market’s move reflects expectations for an accelerating economy – it’s the only way to get the “E” that is earnings growing enough to make the market’s current valuation more palatable.

 

Need to Keep Our Eyes on Both Sides of the Equation

One of the common mistakes we see with investors is they almost always only focus on the upside to be had, without keeping an eye on the downside risks. If Trump is successful when it comes to the domestic economy, and we’d love nothing more than to see acceleration here, earnings will likely grow materially.

One of the potential risks we see this week is the market being disappointed by the lack of details that Trump will share tomorrow night, which might be read as a push out in timing relative to what the stock market expects. As we said on last week’s Cocktail Investing podcast, resetting expectations is a lot like children that open presents on Christmas morning to find something other than what they expected — it’s far from a harmonious event and more like one that is met with mental daggers, confusion, and second guessing. In short, not a fun time at all.

For that reason, we’re going to make some defensive adjustments to the Tematica Select List, which has enjoyed the market rally over the last few months and led to strong moves in our Universal Display (OLED), AMN Healthcare (AMN), Costco Wholesale (COST) shares as well as several others.

 

With an eye toward preserving profits, we are going to introduce the following stop losses:
  • Alphabet (GOOGL) at $800
  • Universal Display at $70
  • AMN Healthcare at $37
  • PowerShares NASDAQ Internet Portfolio ETF (PNQI) at $90

 

Alongside these new stop losses, we’re also going to raise several existing ones:
  • Boost our stop loss on AT&T (T) to $36 from $31
  • Raise our stop loss on International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF) to $115 from $105
  • Boost our stop loss on Costco Wholesale to $170 from $165
  • Increase our stop loss on Disney (DIS) shares to $100 from $87

 

Again, our thought is better to be safe than sorry given where the market currently sits. We’ll continue to review other positions on the Tematica Select List with similar actions where and when it makes sense.

 

Voice Technology Firm Hits the Road with Deutsche Bank

Voice Technology Firm Hits the Road with Deutsche Bank

Over the last few days, our Disruptive Technology play on the Tematica Select List that is Nuance Communications (NUAN) held a non-deal roadshow with meetings in San Francisco courtesy of Deutsche Bank (DB). Coming out of the meetings, Deutsche Bank reiterated its Buy rating on NUAN shares as well as its $25 price target. Even though that is a few dollars above our $21 price target, we find the Deutsche’s comments both upbeat and confirming for our thesis on the shares.

Below are some of those comments:

  • Though the legacy volume-based transcription business is expected to decline in the coming quarters, the Dragon Cloud subscription offering launched last year is expected to return the segment to growth over the coming year.
  • With 60% of the roughly 900k US doctors already using some form of Nuance transcription technology already, there appears to be abundant room to up-sell new products, like clinical documentation quality, a roughly $1 billion annual software opportunity.
  • Commentary on the Automotive pipeline suggests a potential for bookings growth to remain robust – perhaps even accelerate – for the next couple of years, benefiting from long-term contracts as far out as 2025 in some cases.

The bottom line is we continue to see ample opportunity in this expanding voice technology market for Nuance and its offerings to the healthcare, mobile/auto, enterprise, and imaging markets. Longer term,  Tractica — a market intelligence firm that focuses on human interaction with technology — forecasts total voice digital assistant revenue will grow from $1.6 billion in 2015 to $15.8 billion in 2021. That is also likely to put Nuance on the M&A contender list for those larger entities that need to expand their voice technology capabilities.

  • Even after NUAN shares climbed 1.6 percent this week to close just below $17, we continue to see an upside of more than 23 percent to our $21 price target. 
  • We would look to revisit this rating the closer NUAN shares get to $19.